Iowa Travel Demand Model Management

1. Iowa Travel Demand Model Management Phillip J. Mescher, AICP, CPM Iowa Department of Transportation Office of Systems Planning Ames, Iowa 515-239-1629 Phil.mescher@dot.iowa.gov

2. Goals Enhance travel demand modeling assistance to Iowa’s 9 MPOs. Develop model standards and expectations Establish Consistency among models Publish Model Policy and Procedure Manual Add On-call Consultant Services for Iowa DOT Work to enhance Iowa’s MPO models to meet consistent standards Include MTMUG in standards development

3. Iowa Modeling History • 1960’s & 1970’s • DOT Responsible • Mainframe Computer • Planpac • 1980’s & 1990’s • MPOs Responsible • Desktop Computers and Software • Tranplan & QRS II • 1990’s to 2010’s • DOT providing more assistance and responsibility

4. What is happening? • MPO modeling staff turnover • Only one MPO has senior level model staff • DOT continual training and retaining of staff • Causes? Pay, other opportunities, steep learning curve, etc. • Takes a couple of years modeling to become proficient • Dramatic Increase in Demands on MPO staff • LRTP, TIP, UPWP, PPP, CMP, Transit, Safety, Modeling, etc. • MAP-21 Performance Measures • Models put on “back-burner”

5. What is happening? • Iowa DOT Assistance to MPOs • Modeler Training • MTMUG • Model Rebuild • Model Calibration/Validation • Model Scenario Runs • LRTP • Corridor Projects • Consistent Software – TransCAD (DOT subsidized) • Hosting NHI Travel Modeling Class

6. What is happening? • DOT has limitations also • Staffing given workload requests • DOT has staff turnover at times but fairly stable • Need more expertise in Transit mode share, TOD models, etc. • Consultant Assistance • At times MPOs have hired consultants to help with their modeling • No standards to follow • Results in lack of consistency among models

7. NCHRP Report 288 • Report 288 highlights the fact that policy makers must have the ability to make informed decisions about future investments and public policies for the transportation system. • Based on the investigation of the 288 committee, it was determined the current models and modeling practice is not adequate for many of the tasks to which they are being applied. • They recommend that steps must be taken to improve current and future practice in metropolitan travel forecasting. • Report Conclusion: • More state support to modeling is needed.

8. What is happening? • Several States getting more involved to help MPOs • Florida • Wisconsin • Texas • Virginia • Iowa • Etc. • Traffic forecasts are critical to designing projects.

9. Where are we going? • Iowa Modeling Policy & Procedure Manual • Lays out model structure, protocols, procedures • Model version management • SE Data Forecast Process/Review • Identifies Input Data • Integration with Iowa Statewide Model • Determines Model Validation Expectations • Describes Best Practices • Coordination with Iowa DOT • Wisconsin Online Policy Manual

10. Where are we going? • Iowa DOT On-call Consultant Services • Task Orders • Simple project analyses • Full model rebuilds including calibration/validation • Training/assistance for DOT • Transit Modeling • Time of Day • Etc

11. Where are we going? • MPO Model Enhancement • Over time work with Iowa DOT and MPOs to enhance current models to adhere to new Policy & Procedure manual. • Likely concurrent with existing LRTP and model update timelines.

12. What is Next? • Partner Support • Across the Board Support from MPOs • NDOR, Iowa DOT, Wisconsin DOT and Illinois DOT • FHWA • RFP for Consultant On-call Services is drafted • RFP tweaks underway • Hope to hit the street before end of year • Several excellent firms have interest (some in teams)

13. Questions?