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California Statewide Travel Demand Model

California Statewide Travel Demand Model. California State Transportation Plan Policy Advisory Committee. October 15, 2013. Doug MacIvor Ronald West. CSTDM Key Objectives. SB 391 and SB 375.

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California Statewide Travel Demand Model

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  1. California Statewide Travel Demand Model California State Transportation Plan Policy Advisory Committee October 15, 2013 Doug MacIvor Ronald West

  2. CSTDM Key Objectives

  3. SB 391 and SB 375 SB 391: Require the CTP to identify the statewide integrated multimodal transportation system needed to achieve a statewide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-percent below 1990 levels by 2050. SB 375: Interregional Forecasts SB 375: SCSs from MPOs

  4. How Can Modeling Help Evaluate Strategies? How do things look when you add up everyone’s trips? How did you decide to get there? What are your options on how to get there? Where are you going to go? Population Calibrated Models Based on Survey Data Transit Service Highway Network Employment Travel Times

  5. What is the CSTDM? • Auto • Drive Alone • Car Pools • Transit • Bus • Urban Rail • Non-Motorized • Walk • Bicycle • Other • Air • Rail • Trucks • 2015 • 2020 • 2035 • 2040 • 2050 • Personal Travel Models • Short Distance • Long Distance • Truck Model • Short Distance • Long Distance • External Travel Model Multimodal model of weekday California resident travel, including trucks Base Year 2010 Multiple Horizon Years Comprised of five components

  6. CSTDMSystem Outputs • Trip lists • Trip tables • Loaded network • Travel times and costs • Summary travel statistics • Maps • Graphs

  7. CSTDM Zones and Network • 93,000 nodes • 253,000 links • Multi-modal 5454 internal zones (TAZ) 51 external zones

  8. CSTDM Network Coverage Area - Berkeley

  9. Transit Travel Times To San Francisco International Airport To Los Angeles International Airport

  10. Development of Year 2010 Population Database • Contains Information on Every Synthetic Household in California, including: • Household Size • Persons by Age • Employment • Income • Housing Type Run Population Synthesizer

  11. Development of Year 2010 Employment Data Occupation • Agriculture/Mining • Construction • Manufacturing • Wholesale • Transportation/Utilities • Retail • Information • Finance/Insurance/Real Estate • Professional/Management/Administration • Education/Health • Arts/Entertainment/Recreation/ Accommodation/Food Service • Other Service • Government • Management/Business • Professional/Technical • Education • Health • Service • Sales, Food, and Entertainment • Clerical • Blue Collar Industry

  12. Future Year Forecasts Future transportation improvement and service assumptions from SCSs and RTPs throughout the state, and from Caltrans modal plans. • Socio-Economic Forecasts • MPO data used directly • RTPAs – Combination of: • UC Davis forecasts • Dept of Finance • Moody’s (Employment)

  13. Changes in Population and Employment

  14. CHTSData – Sampling Rates

  15. California State Freight Forecasting Model Source: UC Irvine • Under development by UC Irvine • Commodity-based model • Converted to long distance truck trips for CSTDM

  16. 2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Costs Shift in trips to transit and non-motorized modes (SDPTM) Decrease in total daily VMT

  17. 2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Cost Green = Decreased roadways volumes Red = Increased roadway volumes Volume decrease on roadways across the state

  18. CSTDM Future Forecasts for CTP 2040 Analyze several scenarios to obtain maximum feasible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. A scenario will be defined as multiple surface transportation GHG reduction strategies. “ An example of a scenario would include a strategy or multiple strategies (e.g. VMT tax – the base (existing condition) would be no tax, moderately aggressive would be $.10 per mile and aggressive would be $.25 per mile). The CSTDM is currently being updated and is anticipated to be available Winter 2013/14.

  19. Strategies Handled Using CSTDM

  20. Strategies Handled Outside of CSTDM

  21. CTP 2040 Alternatives Statewide Strategy Packages Scenarios = Alt 1 Planned RTP/SCS, Modal Plans and cleaner car/truck standards = Alt 2 Planned + Future Strategies MODERATE Vehicle Fleet +Strategiessuch as pricing, mode shift, operational efficiencies, etc. + Alt1 = Alt 3 Meeting the Goals AGGRESSIVE Vehicle Fleet +Strategies such as pricing, mode shift, operational efficiencies, etc. + Alt1

  22. CSTDM Update Objectives • Improve model inputs (networks, network processing, zones) • Build on/improve the initial CSTDM • Key Objectives • CTP 2040/ • Interregional Travel/ • Rural Analysis Needs • Enhance model credibility, access & usefulness • Leverage CHTS with new data – Census, NHTS, long-distance surveys

  23. CSTDM Update + 2040 CTP Forecasts Milestones CHTS Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model Final Version of Model for all Years (March 2013) (October 2013) (December 2014) (February 2014) Final CTP Forecasts (~January 2015)

  24. Q & A

  25. Statewide Modeling History Continued HSR Model Improvements

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