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K. Atakan Department of Earth Science University of Bergen

www.geo.uib.no. Earthquake Potential in Western Anatolia and the Associated Risk Assessment and Mitigation in Izmir and its Surroundings (ARAMIS). K. Atakan Department of Earth Science University of Bergen. Department of E arth Scien ce. www.geo.uib.no. Background and our motivations.

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K. Atakan Department of Earth Science University of Bergen

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  1. www.geo.uib.no Earthquake Potential in Western Anatolia and the Associated Risk Assessment and Mitigation in Izmir and its Surroundings (ARAMIS) K. Atakan Department of Earth Science University of Bergen Department ofEarthScience

  2. www.geo.uib.no Background and our motivations Department ofEarthScience

  3. www.geo.uib.no A long-term interest and a wake-up call Department ofEarthScience

  4. Izmir metropolitan area

  5. www.geo.uib.no • Background and Motivations: • The earthquake potential of the active faults in Izmir and its surroundings • Historical destructive earthquakes along these faults • Present day high seismicity in the area • Susceptibility to local site effects • Densely populated metropolitan area with high vulnerability • High earthquake risk • Need for mitigation strategies • Implementation of risk reduction measures • Opportunities: • New EU Program - FP7 Department ofEarthScience

  6. www.geo.uib.no The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) Department ofEarthScience

  7. Present-day plate motions in Turkey based on GPS Sengör et al., 2004

  8. Present-day motions in Izmir and its surroundings based on recent GPS data Aktug and Kilicoglu, 2006

  9. Instrumental seismicity in Western Anatolia (data from KOERI)

  10. Earthquake focal mechanisms in Western Anatolia (data from Harvard University)

  11. Instrumental seismicity in Izmir and its surroundings show clearly which faults are being reactivated. The historical events in 1688, 1735 and 1788 which destroyed the city three times, are, on the other hand, more difficult to associate with faults. Erdik et al., 1997

  12. The earthquake swarm in 2005 was a wake-up call

  13. The earthquake swarm in 2005 (data from KOERI)

  14. The active faults in the region as mapped by MTA

  15. The offshore faults in the south show strike-slip motion Altinok et al., 2005 Ocakoglu et al., 2004

  16. Bozkurt and Sözbilir, 2006

  17. Spectacular outcrops along the Manisa Fault are exceptional. Usually the fault surfaces are not visible.

  18. www.geo.uib.no How do we address these problems? Department ofEarthScience

  19. Continuous circle of efforts Before the earthquake (preparedness/mitigation) During the earthquake (rapid response) After the earthquake (restructuring)

  20. www.geo.uib.no Seismic risk = hazard * vulnerability Social vulnerability vs vulnerability of the built environment Department ofEarthScience

  21. www.geo.uib.no Potential earthquake sources Seismic hazard assessment Major tasks in assessing the seismic risk and its implementation in disaster management Local site effects Vulnerability Seismic risk assessment Mitigation strategies Department ofEarthScience

  22. www.geo.uib.no Earthquake rupture and the resulting damage is a complex function of various parameters Department ofEarthScience

  23. Appropriate Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies are needed

  24. www.geo.uib.no Seismic hazard assessment Deterministic methods Probabilistic methods Time-dependent Scenario based GM-modeling Poissonian Department ofEarthScience

  25. www.geo.uib.no KOERI, Izmir Earthquake Master Plan Department ofEarthScience

  26. www.geo.uib.no Hybrid (broad-band) Ground Motion Simulations Department ofEarthScience

  27. Computed ground motions for a scenario earthquake along the Izmir Fault, Western Segment

  28. Computed ground motions for a scenario earthquake along the Izmir Fault, Eastern Segment

  29. Local Site Effects is a major problem

  30. www.geo.uib.no KOERI, Izmir Earthquake Master Plan Department ofEarthScience

  31. www.geo.uib.no KOERI, Izmir Earthquake Master Plan Department ofEarthScience

  32. www.geo.uib.no Predominant frequencies around Kordon, Izmir based on H/V spectral ratios of the microtremors Mikrotremor verilerine dayali Izmir, Kordon civarindaki anasalinim frekanslari Department ofEarthScience

  33. www.geo.uib.no Department ofEarthScience

  34. The complex built environment in Izmir poses challenges in defining the vulnerability with respect to earthquake loads. Innovative approaches are needed.

  35. Building types and standards vary significantly throughout the Izmir area. Göksu, 2006

  36. We need new technologies and innovative approaches Düzgün et al., 2005

  37. Düzgün et al., 2005

  38. Critical issues to be discussed: • Project scope • Project size (optimum size) • Project focus (single location vs several locations) • Scientific challenges (basic science vs applied) • Innovations and new technologies • Participating Institutions and their experience and expertise • European dimension (generic aspects) • European policies and priorities in FP7 (relevance)

  39. www.geo.uib.no Thank you for your attention! Department ofEarthScience

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