Enrollment Projecting The Magic of Modeling and Deposits

1. Enrollment ProjectingThe Magic of Modeling and Deposits Rachel Morris Data & Reporting Coordinator Missouri University of Science and Technology rachelm@mst.edu

2. Overview Who are we Institutional Goals KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators) Benchmarks Enrollment Projections Assessment

3. Guidelines for forecasting enrollment • Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on-going communication • Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time • Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy • Build trend lines for key performance indicators • Refine models overtime

4. Know Your Profile

5. A Top Technological Research University 1. We’re one of America’s top technological research universities. 2.Our students get great jobsat great salaries. 3.Our students graduate with the ability to address real-world problems. 4.We’re one of America’s “30 safest campuses.” 5.S&T is one of the top 10 “best value” national public universities.

6. What is a “Technological Research University?” A university with… • At least 25% of students studying engineering • A majority of students studying mathematics, engineering, science, business and computing • A robust graduate program • Strong research culture • Exceptional liberal arts, humanities and social science degree programs that complement the technological strengths of the university

7. America’s TechnologicalResearch Universities WPI Rensselaer Michigan Tech Clarkson MIT SD Mines IllinoisTech Colorado Mines New JerseyTech Missouri S&T CalTech New Mexico Mining & Tech StevensTech GeorgiaTech U of A - Huntsville FloridaTech

8. Degree Programs +60 Degree Programs 34 BS/BA MBA/MST 29 MS/ME 20 PhD • Applied Math • Biological Sciences & Pre-Med • Business • Chemistry • Computer Science • Economics • English • Geology & Geophysics • History & Philosophy • Information Science & Technology • Physics • Psychology • Materials Science* • Technical Communication • Engineering: • Aerospace • Architectural • Ceramic • Chemical • Civil • Computer • Electrical • Engineering Management • Environmental • Explosives* • Geological • Manufacturing* • Mechanical • Metallurgical • Mining • Nuclear • Petroleum • Systems* Learn Moredegrees.mst.edu *Masters degree only

9. Missouri S&T: 90% engineering, science and computing majors 19th in Nation for Largest Undergraduate Engineering Enrollment 17th in Nation for Number of Engineering Degrees Granted to African-Americans 19th in Nation for Number of BS Engineering Degrees Granted

10. Miners’ Fall 2010 StatsBreaking National Trends TOTAL Enrollment 7,206 • Undergraduate students 5,504 • Graduate students 1,702 • New freshman class 1,170 • New transfer class 388

11. Students’ Home States Fall 2010 43 3 4 2 8 3 2 20 4 17 22 20 4 2 20 4 29 22 36 4 34 12 3 459 4 28 29 3 1 DC 41 4,901 128 12 20 12 18 19 56 54 Total Enrollment • 48 states & 51 nations • 70% Missouri residents • 10% minority students • 9% international students 5 7 7 16 25 125 8 6 24 1 Unofficial data until after 4th week census

12. Enrollment diversity

13. International Student Enrollment

14. Undergraduate demographics and psychographics • From a Community <40,000: 45% approx. • Average Family Income: $82,000 • Average Indebtedness at Graduation: • $23,500 USD approx. • High Financial Need (Pell qualifier): 24% • Freshmen with Credit Cards: • 24% • 6 arrive with over $1000 USD standing balance • Students with PCs: • 94% • +70% laptops • 7% Macs • Students with Cell Phones • 97% • Average Age: 21.6 years old • Gender: • 23% Female • 77% Male • First Generation College Students: • 2005-06: 37% • Residency: • Missouri Residents: 76% • Out-State Students: 22% • International: 2% • Ethnicity: • African-American: 4% • Asian-American: 3% • Caucasian: 83% • Hispanic: 2% • Native-American: 1% • Non-resident, International: 2% • Not Disclosed: 5%

15. 35% increase in test senders with family incomes of $60,000+ SOURCE: ACT AIM, 2008

16. Demographics Can Impact Historical Models

17. An ideal Missouri S&T freshman class 1050 to 1150 students with the following profile: Academic Preparedness: 27 average ACT score (upper 10% in nation) 90% having completed the full Missouri college-prep curriculum 50% from the upper 20% of high school class Geography: 70% in-state 25% out-of-state 5% international Gender: 30% female 70% male Ethnicity:13% under-represented minority students Majors: 70% Engineering (all programs) 5% Liberal Arts (psychology, history, English, technical communication, philosophy) 8% Business, Information Technology and Economics 9% Natural Sciences and Mathematics (biology, chemistry, physics) 8% Computer Science Success Rate:90% first to second year retention rate 80% return for third year 65-70% graduate in six years

18. Challenge: changes in the college-bound student markets • The Midwest and Northeast will experience a 4% to 10% decline in high school graduates between 2009 – 2014 (WICHE) • The profile of college-bound students is rapidly becoming more ethnically diverse and female dominant (NCES, WICHE, ACT, College Board) • The number of students interested in engineering, computer science, and natural science degrees has declined to record lows (ACT, CIRP) • More full-time college freshmen are choosing to start at two-year colleges (IPED, MODHE) • More students are enrolling in more than one college at a time (National Student Clearinghouse) • Future student market growth will include more students requiring financial aid and loans to complete a degree (WICHE)

19. The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions

20. College-going rates, 2006

21. Some Trends that have not Changed: The Golden Circle for Recruitment +70% enroll within 140 miles of home +80% enroll in home state

22. Projected change in high school graduates 2007-2017 +1 -17 -15 -23 -3 -19 +4 -14 -6 +13 -8 -12 -8 -14 -6 -6 -12 -6 -6 -2 +53 -6 -3 +10 -2 -4 +27 -6 +21 +9 -5 +1 +1 -3 +2 -31 +14 -1 +27 +1 +2 +1 -8 0 +22 0 > 20% +11% to +20% 0% to +10% Decreases -7 +16 +10 -9 -14 Source: Chronicle of Higher Education Almanac 2006-07

23. National vs. regional trends WICHE, 2008

24. % change in Missouri population by county 2000-2008 Missouri Average = 5.6% -14.4% - -0.1% 0% - 4.9% 5% - 9.9% 10% - 19.9% 20% - 39% Source: USDA, Bureau of the Census Published by: University of Missouri Extension, April 2 2009

25. By 2012, Missouri will have 4,000 fewer HS graduates each year

26. Guidelines for forecasting enrollment • Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on-going communication • Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time • Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy • Build trend lines for key performance indicators • Refine models overtime

27. Basic Enrollment Funnel

28. How We Use the Funnel • Goal setting tool based on previous performance and benchmarks • Tool for building enrollment budgets • Primary dashboard indicators for In-cycle assessments of recruitment progress and projecting enrollments • Tool to measure effectiveness of activities along the matriculation path • Ability to determine market share • Tool to better focusing communications and messaging

29. How S&T Tracks Progress

31. Percent of ACT Tested College Freshmen Who Selected an Engineering Major

32. Missouri’s 2010 Student Funnel for All Engineering Fields • High School Seniors: 74,681 • High School Graduates: 64,009 • ACT Testers/College Bound: 48,290 • Any Engineering Interest (all testers): 1,836 • Any Engineering Interest, (+21 testers): 1,299 (21 = MO average score / 50%) • Engineering Interest, +24 comp. score: 969 (24 = UM minimum for auto admission) • Missouri S&T Freshmen Engineering Enrollees: 721 SOURCES: MODESE 2011, ACT EIS 2010, PeopleSoft

33. Domestic Overall Freshmen Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Inquiries 8361 8456 9629 11427 11514 11510 Applicants 1898 1984 2305 2260 2515 2693 Admits 1809 1870 2154 2088 2343 2479 Enrollees 865 950 1040 1031 1105 1155 % Admits Enrolled 48% 51% 48% 49% 47% 47% % Inquiries Enrolled 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10%

34. Domestic Freshmen from MissouriEnrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010 • 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • Inquiries 4764 5061 6247 6325 5658 6053 • Applicants 1339 1397 1641 1583 1791 1912 • Admits 1020 1310 1511 1461 1665 1762 • Enrollees 703 767 822 835 899 931 • % Admits Enrolled 69% 58.5% 54% 57% 54% 53% • % Inquiries Enrolled 15% 15% 13% 13% 16% 15%

35. Domestic Freshmen Online ApplicationEnrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010 • 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • Applicants N/A 995 1276 1404 1823 2170 • Admits N/A 950 1213 1304 1700 2017 • Enrollees N/A 423 550 591 771 918 • % Admits Enrolled N/A 44.5% 45% 45% 45% 45%

36. Domestic Freshmen Paper Application Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010 • 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • Applicants N/A 988 1029 859 692 523 • Admits N/A 919 941 787 643 462 • Enrollees N/A 527 490 440 335 237 • % Admits Enrolled N/A 57% 52% 56% 52% 51%

37. FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel

38. FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel

39. FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Missouri Freshmen

40. FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College St. Louis Area Freshmen

41. FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Kansas City Area Freshmen

42. FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Chicago Area Freshmen

43. FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Dallas Area Freshmen

44. 13% (+375) increase in FAFSA submissions over AY0925% (+641) increase in FAFAS submissions over AY07

45. Getting Started

46. Where to Begin? Determine critical information needed and begin data collection Understand your student population and know your data 2. Verify data quality accurate, complete, shared definition & metrics 3. Identify key benchmarks points in time when data must be gathered and compared to build historical trends 4. Holistic approach to data management requires buy-in from “data managers” (create / manage data) 5. Build baseline year assess effectiveness and refine over time

47. Factor Analysis Defined • Factor analysis is a statistical method used to describe variability among observed variables in terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved variables called factors. • Factor analysis searches for joint variations in responses to unobserved latent variables. • The information gained about the interdependencies between observed variables can be used later to reduce the set of variables in a dataset.

48. 6 month projection for freshmen fall enrollment (1 of 7 best factors) • Gender • Geographic Origin • Degree Program • Application Type • Academic Profile/Scholarship • ACT Composite Score • HS GPA • HS Class Rank • Overall/Combination Fall 2010 99.1% accurate Adjusted Projection: 1,161 Opening Week: 1,171 4th Week Census: 1,070

49. Factor Analysis is Key • Originated in psychometrics, and is used in behavioral sciences, social sciences, marketing, product management, operations research, and other applied sciences that deal with large quantities of data.