Elections and Direct Democracy

1. Elections and Direct Democracy 4 November 2010

2. The 2010 Midterm Election • An Historic Election? • Republicans recapture the House for the first time since 2006 with a gain of (at least) 60 seats; prior to the election Democrats held a 258-177 majority (41 seat advantage)

3. Incumbency Advantage • Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents are reelected • In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection in the postwar period • Even in years very unfavourable to one of the parties, a large majority win. In 1994, the Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won. In 1974, 77 percent of the Republican incumbents who ran were returned to office. • In 2006, 94 percent of House incumbents won; in the Senate 79 percent were reelected. • In 2010, 87 percent of House incumbents were returned to office; in the Senate 87-91 percent (depending on the outcome of the Washington and Alaska races)

4. Incumbency advantage in 2010 • At least 20 percent of the House Democrats are defeated (n=49) compared with only 1.3 percent for Republicans (n=2). • Feigngold (Wisconisn) and Lincoln (Arkansas) are defeated; Murray (Washington) is too close to call. • Democrats lose a total of 6 seats but still retain majority in the Senate (with at least 52 seats including two independents); Indiana, North Dakota, Illinois, Pennsylvania • House: 43 open seats (10%); Republicans win 84% of the seats (n=36) • Democrats hold on to Nevada, Colorado, California; Washington is still too close to call.

5. Map of U.S. House Races See NYTimes coverage

6. Map of U.S. Senate Races See NYTimes coverage

7. Historic Comparisons • Presidents party has lost seats in Congress for all but three of the 27 midterms beginning in the 20th Century. • Since the end of WW II, the average midterm seat loss for the president’s party is 24 seats. • When the president’s approval rating is below 50% the average midterm seat loss is 38 seats. Source: Abramson et al. (2007) Change and Continuity in the 2004 and 2006 Elections

8. Trends in Midterm Elections • The 2010 election represents the largest loss since 1948.

9. Voter turnout • The 2010 midterm election experienced the highest turnout for a midterm election in the past 30 years. An estimated 41.5 percent of those eligible to vote participated, which appears to have topped the 41.1 percent in the 1994 midterm elections – another good year for Republicans.  • Nevertheless, turnout is substantially lower than presidential elections; in 2008, 61.6 percent of those eligible to vote did so. Source: Michael McDonald, George Mason University

10. Age and Turnout • Exit polls showed that voters 18-29 made up 11% of the electorate; down from 18% in 2008. • In comparison, people age 65 and older increased from 19% in 2006 to 23% in 2010.  • Voters younger than 30 still gave Democrats a boost. Every other age group favoured the GOP, including a whopping 18-point advantage for Republicans among voters older than 65.

11. How Citizens Voted for U.S. House Source: CNN Exit Polls

12. How do people decide who to vote for? Two Models of Voting Behaviour • Voters as forward thinkers (Prospective Model) • Party identification • Candidate characteristics • Issue positions • Voters looking back (Retrospective Model) • Party identification • Evaluation of the past • Note that both models agree that partisanship plays a central role

13. Functions of Party Identification • Helps one organise and categorise information • Perceptual Screen • Helps one make value judgments. Is Barack Obama more competent than George Bush? Could Bill Clinton be trusted? • Influence Political Behavior • Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote. • party id is the most important determinant of the way people vote

14. Measuring Party Identification • “Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?” • Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat). • Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”

15. Trends in Partisanship (1952-2008)

16. Influence of Party Id

17. Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

18. Perception of Gore’s Honesty

19. Requirements for Issue Voting • Aware of the issue • Care about the issue • Perceive difference between the candidates • Correct about the difference

21. Direct Democracy as an Alternative • Rather than voting for representatives, citizens are able to draft and vote directly on policy • Direct democracy allows citizens to be their own “legislators” • Direct democracy also allows citizens to set the policy agenda • Circumvent a non-responsive legislature

22. Recall the reasoning for the U.S. Constitutional Framework… • America is not so much a democracy as it is a republic. • The whole idea of the Constitution was to limit majority rule, to prevent tyranny of the majority. This is why citizens do not make laws directly, but elect representatives to do so, and supra-majorities or checks and balances are required in every step of legislation and execution. • Nevertheless, the Constitution reserves power to the states to determine their own laws. Many states allow voters to make laws directly.

23. Devices of Direct Democracy • The Referendum • Government places a question before the voters • The Initiative • Allows voters (or some organized group) to define the issue or question to be voted on • The Recall • Allows voters to undo elections by recalling elected officials

24. The Referendum • France and the Netherlands recently voted on the European Constitution (2005) • Constitution of Iraq (2005) • Australian Republic (1999) • Canada “Charlottetown Accord” (1992)— • divisions of powers between federal and provinces • Ireland (1995) held a referendum to decide whether divorce should be legal

25. The Initiative—Some Examples • Taxes • Prop 13 (California, 1978) • Medicinal marijuana • California’s Prop 315 (1996); Proposition 1 (Michigan 2008); Measure 67 (Oregon, 1998) • New proposals in California would legalise, tax and regulate the drug in what would be the first such law in the United States. Tax officials estimate that legislation could bring $1.4 billion a year. • Ban same-sex marriage • 11 states (2004); 3 states (2008) • Deny illegal immigrants social services, health care, and public education • Prop 187 (California, 1994)

26. The Recall • Typically used for local offices • Exception-California Governor (October 7, 2003) • Signatures • Results

27. Where Direct Democracy is used

28. Examples of Ballot MeasuresCalifornia (2010)

29. Vote on Legalizing Marijuana (CA) Source: CNN Exit Polls

30. Advantages • Allows citizens to circumvent unresponsive legislatures (example of term limits and other reforms) • Allows citizens to remove unpopular representatives (example of Gray Davis) • Empowers voters

31. Criticisms of Direct Democracy • Original intent of the framers was for a republican form of government • Too much money and “special interest” influence • Voters are incompetent • Concern about minority rights

32. Reasons Californians Support Direct Democracy Source: Table 7.1, p. 135 Donovan and Bowler

33. Voter Evaluations of Representative versus Direct Democracy Source: Table 7.2, p. 136 Donovan and Bowler