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Analysis of NARCCAP Results in the Pacific Northwest for Decision-Making in the Upper Columbia Basin

This study examines the NARCCAP results in the Pacific Northwest and their applicability for decision-making in the upper Columbia Basin. It analyzes the 1980-1999 winter climatology and compares it with projections for the 2050s, highlighting changes in extreme temperatures and the 10th/90th percentiles. The study concludes that RCMs are useful tools for decision-making in areas with complex topography and steep climate gradients, with biases comparable to the difference between observations. Future projections indicate warmer and wetter winters, with significant changes to extreme temperatures. The analysis of extremes is ongoing, and multiple RCMs driven by multiple GCMs are required for accurate results.

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Analysis of NARCCAP Results in the Pacific Northwest for Decision-Making in the Upper Columbia Basin

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  1. Analysis of NARCCAP results in the Pacific Northwest… for decision-making in the upper Columbia Basin T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC G. Burger, Climate Scientist, PCIC H. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC J. Hiebert, Computing Support, PCIC 2011 NARCCAP User’s MeetingBoulder, Colorado, USA 08 APR 2011

  2. 1980-1999 Winter Climatology – NCEP2, CRU, RCM ensemble

  3. 1980-1999 Winter Climatology – NCEP, CRU, RCM ensemble

  4. 2050s change GCM vs. RCM

  5. Change in extreme day of period

  6. Projected 10th/90th percentiles

  7. 2050s projected 100-yr return period

  8. Summary • RCMs useful tools for decision making in areas of complex topography and steep climate gradients • Improvements from NCEP2 ~225 km (2.5⁰) to 50 km • Biases comparable to difference between observations • Future (winter) projections • warmer, wetter, large changes to extreme temperatures • Analysis of extremes underway  need ensemble with multiple RCMs driven by multiple GCMs

  9. Data sources • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb) • NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter. 1631-1643, Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc. • CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 693-712, Doi: 10.1002/joc.1181. • Additional observations: Environment Canada climate stations, CANGRID, UDEL, NARR2m, VIC driving data

  10. AcknowledgmentsHailey Eckstrand – GIS wizard Seth McGinnis – NARCCAP supportGerd Burger & James Hiebert – Analysis of extremesDave Bronaugh – GCM data Katrina Bennett – VIC historical dataset Thank you Comments, questions, criticism: tmurdock@uvic.ca More info on PCIC: www.PacificClimate.org

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