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is there a business case for a European space weather service?

is there a business case for a European space weather service?. Systems Engineering & Assessment Ltd (SEA). ESA Contract: 18459/04/NL/LvH ESA Study Manager: Alain Hilgers (Alexi Glover) SEA Study Manager: Tim Woodward. structure. study context and objectives methodology results

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is there a business case for a European space weather service?

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  1. is there a business case for a European space weather service? Systems Engineering & Assessment Ltd (SEA) ESA Contract: 18459/04/NL/LvH ESA Study Manager: Alain Hilgers (Alexi Glover) SEA Study Manager: Tim Woodward SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  2. structure • study context and objectives • methodology • results • summary and conclusion SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  3. previous studies other studies <2000 parallel studies 2000 project context SW applications pilot project infrastructure SDA SDA = Service Development Activity C-B study SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  4. Y N residual impact accept? don’t care N Y mitigate accept SW mitigation: decision logic SW effect impact on system? SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  5. generic SWS model raw SW measurements data processing and modelling users raw SW measurements database SWS data products SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  6. business case data summary • SWS costs • market data • SW impacts • SWS benefits • measurement • costs SWS provider/SWENET LoS scenarios SWS user raw SW measurements data processing and modelling users raw SW measurements database SWS data products SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  7. from providers + users from science + observations from users data definition: benefit data effectiveness of SWS risk to system X X frequency of SW conditions benefit  SW impacts = SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  8. benefits data: by SWS SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  9. benefits data: by industry SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  10. levels of service: overview SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  11. net benefits LoS1: ground based • LoS1 • relies on continuation of scientific networks • provides nowcasts • LoS3 • has low external dependencies • is more costly • provides forecasts • larger benefits LoS2: hitchhiker LoS3: dedicated satellites SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

  12. conclusion • costs are relatively straightforward • benefits much more difficult to quantify • some benefits are strategic and unquantifiable • benefits split 50:50 between nowcasts and forecasts • as usual: • small initial investment brings large benefits • but even the largest system has benefit:cost of ~5:1 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006

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