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The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A Comparative Perspective

This research examines the Orange Order, a British Protestant fraternal organization, and its role in shaping British-Protestant ethnicity. It explores factors that influence Orange membership and the organization's effectiveness in driving policy change. The study uses both quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze membership patterns and variations across different regions and time periods. The findings highlight similarities and differences between international jurisdictions and other fraternities, and propose theories of fraternal change. The research also includes preliminary qualitative evidence and statistical tests.

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The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A Comparative Perspective

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  1. The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A ComparativePerspective

  2. The Orange Order • Fraternity formed 1795 in Northern Ireland • Stands for loyalty to British Crown & Protestantism • Political Protestantism, NOT evangelical Protestantism. More ethnic than religious. • Associative cornerstone of British-Protestant ethnicity in several places • Britannic ethno-nationalist • Rapid international spread

  3. ESRC Research • Fellowship focuses on dominant ethnicity and social change • Issue of how ethnic cores of nations deal with liberal modernity and globalisation • Orange Order as the associational glue behind dominant ethnicity in N.I., Canada, W.C. Scotland • Devolution Programme Grant looks at Orange-UUP link in Northern Ireland • http://www.canadian-english.com/OrangeOrder/

  4. Main Research Questions • What factors cause per capita Orange membership strength to rise and fall over time and across place? (social question) • How effective is the Orange Order in determining policy change, and why does its power rise and fall over time and place? (political question)

  5. Research Methodology • Quantitative: Compare Orange membership among Protestants with variables from census, police reports, history, polls. Over time and across county and ‘province’ (N.I., Scotland, Nfld., Ontario) • Qualitative: Compare Orange resolutions and organised political activity over time and place. Look at class profile of elite and membership over time. Interviews. • Sources: Previously unseen internal documents; census, polls, violence stats, valuation rolls, some newspapers

  6. Current Presentation • Will focus on quantitative research since that has been initial thrust • Happy to answer technical and qualitative questions as well

  7. Analysis of Variation in Membership Patterns • International Patterns (v. Canada, Scotland) • Variation over Time in Northern Ireland • Variation by County in Northern Ireland • Inter-Fraternal Patterns (v. Masons, IOOF) • Theories of Change • Results of Statistical Analyses

  8. Concentrated in Ontario, NB & Nfld

  9. Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership, 1966-2001

  10. Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism • General decline since membership peak in early 1960’s (mid-Ulster), or 50’s (East) • Height of the ‘Troubles’ (1969-72) boosted membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish Agreement and Drumcree • However, general trend is a steady decline • Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even taking into account population flows.

  11. International Orange Similarities • All jurisdictions experience growth until the 1920’s • All decline in the Depression years • All experience growth after World War II • All experience steady decline in recent decades • N.I; Scotland 1; Scotland 2 ; Ontario; Newfoundland

  12. International Differences • Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920’s in Canada and decline in the 1920-39 period is sharper • Membership decline in the post-1960 period has been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland and Scotland have declined at similar steady rates

  13. Inter-Fraternal Patterns • Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines better than Masonic NI2 • Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of Orange NI3

  14. Summary • Great deal of similarity in shape of historical patterns of membership across nations and fraternities • Great deal of difference between places and fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in membership

  15. Theories of Fraternal Change • Beito: Decline in 1920’s as welfare state emerges • Emery: Decline in 1920’s or 30’s due to private insurance and expanded recreational options • Putnam: Depression caused decline, WWII boosted membership. Differences in ‘Social Capital’ between Generations explains most of post-1960 decline. • Culturalist: Decline of Protestant Religiosity (Bruce?), Decline of Loyalty to Crown, Decline of British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism

  16. Preliminary Research: Qualitative • Based on Interviews & Reports • Leaders and Rank-and-file members point to structuralforces • But nearly all admit cultural pressures • Also speak of role of events • Institutional changes not seen as significant by members - though leaders think otherwise • Qualitative evidence inconclusive

  17. Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across County • NI: Catholic Population is by far the most important determinant. Economic factors not important (1901-71). Denomination key: % RC and %Other Protestant increase membership; %Methodist and % Presbyterian strongly decrease it.

  18. Quantitative Analysis: Scotland and Canada • SCT: Catholic population most important determinant, as with NI case. Irish born population of fifty years ago is also very important. All other factors pale in comparison. (for 1901-71) • ONT: No strong factor - Irish Protestant population most powerful. Proportion Irish, French or Catholic has limited effect. (1911-41)

  19. Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across Time • Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism and Other Protestant sects) important during 1901-71. • Orangeism in N.I. responded to RC population growth until 1970, but not since then • Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements, Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970 • Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little impact in N.I. since 1970 • High-school education appears correlated with membership decline in Ontario during 1955-75 • Still more work needed in this and other areas

  20. Conclusion • Orangeism was a worldwide movement though strongest in Ulster and eastern Canada • Orangeism’s rise owed a lot to inter-ethnic conflict with a Catholic ethnie. Relatively Catholic counties in N.I. and Scotland have far more ‘Orange’ Protestants

  21. Conclusion II • The role of economic change is minimal during the period 1891-1971 in all areas • The role of events is only truly important in N.I. – especially in the post-Troubles period • Strong evidence against ‘contact’ hypothesis • No real answer as to why Orangeism in decline • Evidence appears to support Putnam thesis, though more work needed with respect to generation, as well as time-series analysis

  22. Further Research • Inclusion of 1971-2001 census data • Time Series Analysis using Opinion polls from post-1969 period • Examination of Initiations, as well as Junior and Female trends • Qualitative Research on Political Strength

  23. http://www.canadian-english.com/OrangeOrder/

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