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Jim Boylan, Amit Marmur, Jim Kelly Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan

Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what GA EPD plans to do about it!!. Jim Boylan, Amit Marmur, Jim Kelly Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan ( Georgia Environmental Protection Division) Georgia Air Quality Summit

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Jim Boylan, Amit Marmur, Jim Kelly Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan

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  1. Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford:Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what GA EPD plans to do about it!! Jim Boylan, Amit Marmur, Jim Kelly Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan (Georgia Environmental Protection Division) Georgia Air Quality Summit Atlanta, GA - May 4, 2006 Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  2. Integrated Approach to Air Quality Attainment Individual measures, overall strategy to model • Policy Development • Identify menu of control options to be considered • Consider regulatory and practical implications along with costs, benefits, & sensitivities • Develop and implement regulations and policies • Air Quality Modeling • Meteorology, emissions & photochemistry for base & future • Sensitivity analysis of responses to various controls by location and species • Impact (relative reduction factor) of overall strategy Sensitivity to controls; Impact & attainment (Y/N) of overall strategy Iterative search for additional measures Control measures to be evaluated Estimated $/ton of each measure Modeled base & controlled pollutant concentrations Morbidity/mortality averted, visibility improved, etc. due to control strategy • Benefit Assessment • Evaluate health and other benefits of control strategy • Cost Assessment • Evaluate cost-effectiveness ($/ton) of each control option Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  3. Non-Attainment in Georgia • 8-hour ozone standard (85 ppb): Atlanta, Macon • Annual PM2.5 standard (15 g/m3): Atlanta, Macon, Floyd county, Chattanooga Ozone non-attainment areas PM2.5 non-attainment areas Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  4. Atmospheric Modeling System Meteorology (MM5) Emissions (SMOKE) + Air Quality (CMAQ)  Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  5. Modeling System 3-D Pollutant Distributions and 3-D Sensitivities EGAS Measured EI Initial and boundary conditions MOBILE6 TP+ CMAQ SMOKE Photolysis rates NRM 3-D Meteorological Fields (temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, etc) MM5 Meteorological Observations 3-d model predictions Land use, surface elevation, etc Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  6. ui Ki ui Ri ui Ki Ki Si Si CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  7. CMAQ is a “Supermodel”!! • Need to solve the Atmospheric Diffusion Equation for each species in each grid cell for each time step • (200 * 100 horizontal grid cells) x (19 vertical layers) x (100 species) x (4 time step/hour) x (24 hours/day) x (365 days/year) • IN AN ANNUAL SIMULATION, NEED TO SOLVE OVER 1,330,000,000,000 PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS!!!! Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  8. Demonstrating attainment using AQ models Attainment demonstration and future year modeling Emissions control strategy Base case modeling Healthy Air Area not in attainment Area in attainment Model Performance Evaluation Future year (e.g., 2009) emissions with controls Air Quality Goals (i.e., attainment status) Pollutant distributions and sensitivities Pollutant distribution Note: Air Quality Model Air Quality Model Both modeling runs use the same meteorological & air quality inputs Future year emissions (e.g., 2009) Base year emissions (e.g., 2002) Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  9. Future Emission Projection • Controls and Rules (promulgated as of July 1, 2004): • Atlanta / Northern Kentucky / Birmingham 1-hr SIPs • Combustion Turbine MACT • Gulf Power SCR application • Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard • Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT • Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle Rule • Nonroad Diesel Rule • North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act • NOx RACT in 1-hr NAA SIPs • NOx SIP Call (Phase I) • NOx SIP Call (Phase II) • Petroleum Refinery Initiative • RFP 3% Plans where in place for one hour plans • TECO & VEPCO Consent Agreements • Tier 2 Tailpipe • Title IV for Phase I and II EGUs • VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards • Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  10. Future Emissions in Georgia Reductions in NOx and SO2 reductions in ozone and sulfate PM2.5 Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  11. VISTAS 12 km ALGA 12 km Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  12. Attainment Demonstration • Models are used in a relative sense rather than an absolute sense: DVFuture = RRF * DVCurrent • DVCurrent is based on observations • RRF Modeled Future Concentration = --------------------------------------------- Modeled Current Concentration Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  13. Reductions in Ozone (2002  2009) Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022009 Emissions Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022002 Emissions Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  14. Future Ozone Concentrations *2009 includes four SCRs at Bowen, two at Wansley, and one at Hammond Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  15. Future Ozone Concentrations *Need ozone “buffer” below 85 ppb (e.g., 3 to 7 ppb in Atlanta) – Marmur et al. (2006) Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  16. Future PM2.5 Concentrations *2009 includes 2 scrubbers at Bowen, 1 at Wansley, 1 at Yates, and 4 at Hammond Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  17. Emission Sensitivities Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  18. Emission Sensitivities • Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3) • Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 (2009) • Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 (2009) • Regional 10% Emission Reductions • Mobile (on-road/non-road) + area + non-EGU • NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon (PC) • Atlanta (full & sub), Macon (full & sub), Chattanooga (full & sub), Floyd County • Point Emission Reductions • Additional SCRs (NOx) and Scrubbers (SO2) at seven largest Power Plants in Georgia • 2009 emissions already include 4 SCRs and 2 scrubbers at Plant Bowen, 2 SCRs and 1 scrubber at Plant Wansley, 1 SCR and 4 scrubbers at Plant Hammond, and 1 scrubber at Plant Yates Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  19. Ozone Sensitivity in Atlanta 30% Reductions Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  20. NOx & VOCs in Atlanta (Ozone) 10% NOx (38 TPD) 10% VOCs (49 TPD) June 12, 2009 June 12, 2009 Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  21. SCR NOx Controls (Ozone) McDonough (2 SCRs) Branch (2 SCRs) Hammond (3 SCRs) Scherer (4 SCRs) Yates (2 SCRs) Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  22. Ozone at Confederate Avenue SCRs at Plant Scherer - 2002 modeled value above 85 ppb - used for RRF calculations Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  23. Ozone Animations (9:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  24. Ozone Animations (10:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  25. Ozone Animations (11:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  26. Ozone Animations (12:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  27. Ozone Animations (1:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  28. Ozone Animations (2:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  29. Ozone Animations (3:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  30. Ozone Animations (4:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  31. Ozone Animations (5:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  32. Ozone Animations (6:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  33. Ozone Animations (7:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  34. Ozone Animations (8:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  35. Ozone Animations (9:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  36. Ozone Animations (10:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  37. Ozone Animations (11:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  38. Ozone Animations (12:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  39. Ozone Animations (1:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  40. Ozone Animations (2:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  41. Ozone Animations (3:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  42. Ozone Animations (4:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  43. Ozone Animations (5:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  44. Ozone Animations (6:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  45. Ozone Animations (7:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT GMT Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  46. Ozone at Confederate Avenue Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  47. Fire Station #8 - Annual 30% Reductions Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  48. Scrubber SO2 Controls (PM2.5) McDonough(2 Scrubbers) Bowen (2 Scrubbers) Branch (4 Scrubbers) Hammond (4 Scrubbers) Wansley (1 Scrubbers) Scherer (4 Scrubbers) Yates (2 Scrubbers) 10% PC(Atlanta) Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  49. PM2.5 at Fire Station #8 Georgia Environmental Protection Division

  50. Health Benefits Modeling Georgia Environmental Protection Division

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