Mgt 240 Lecture

1. Mgt 240 Lecture MS Excel: Decision Support Systems September 16, 2004

2. Homeworks • Homework • Homework 2 grades posted on course web site • Why I asked you to do this • Homework 3 due tomorrow by 5pm • Andy Grau in L050 from 7-9pm tonight • No homework due next week! • Homework 4 has been posted • Due by 5pm, Friday 9/30

3. Assigned Readings • Reading questions have been posted through 9/30 • Don’t forget to be doing the reading with the reading questions as a guide • Easy to put off in the press of other pressing responsibilities but you don’t want to be in the position of not absorbing any of the reading content until exam week • Don’t save it all until exam week! It’s too much to take in!

4. Decision Support Systems

5. What is a DSS? • A DSS is a computer-based tool, controlled by the end user, used to support and improve decision making in semi-structured and unstructured problem situations. • The DSS helps to impose structure on the decision-making process, and helps to bring together human judgment and computerized information. • The DSS supports but does not replace the role of the end user in the decision process.

6. Decision Making Stages

7. Stages of the Decision Making Process: Intelligence • Problems or opportunities are identified or defined

8. Intelligence Phase DSS tools • Excel • List capabilities: Sorting, filtering • Pivot tables • Charting • Gourmet1 example • Gourmet2 example

9. Intelligence Phase DSS Tools • Xcelsius • Overview • Executive Dashboard • Identify, track, trend, and correct problems as managers evaluate the health of key areas of their organization • Identify operational efficiencies • Proactively identify and apply corrective measures

10. Executive Dashboard Features Dashboard Screen: The dashboard page displays the overall health of key performance indicators. Each box represents a key performance indicator (KPI) and the health for corresponding periods. The default executive dashboard shown can be unique to the individual logged in, or shared by the entire organization.

11. Executive Dashboard Features View Screen: The View screen gives a snapshot picture of the key performance indicator (KPI). Charts display supporting data, while text details the criteria and justification for each KPI.

12. Executive Dashboard Design Design Screen: The design screen allows all elements of a key performance indicator (KPI) to be customized, including sub-indicators, charts, measures, criteria, and display properties.

13. Executive Dashboard Data Data Entry Screen: Performance Metric data is added for each key performance indicator (KPI). From a single screen, both actual values and projections for multiple indicators or time periods are entered.

14. Executive Dashboard Features • Visually keep track of the performance of a company’s performance • The Dashboard is divided into panels • Each panel may be made up of one or more gauges • Each gauge display can represent several rollup periods (or quarters of a year on the screen sample.) • Each gauge's indicator of success (color) is determined by a calculation that uses values from one or more data points or sub-gauges • Each data point may be assigned expectations or projections for maximum, minimum and target values for each period (month) for the entire year. Actual data point values are added when they become available • The key at the bottom of the screen explains the colors and defines the rollup periods • When a performance indicator indicates under performance managers can very quickly drill down to the lower level element causing the under performance in the company's performance metrics

15. Stages of the Decision Making Process: Design • Alternative solutions to the problem or opportunity are developed

16. Design Phase DSS Tools • Excel • What if analysis • Data tables • Scenario manager • Inn example • Meeting, Brainstorming, and Decision Making Tools for groups

17. Stages of the Decision Making Process: Choice • Selecting a course of action • Excel • Solver • Sale example • Expert systems • Intended to perform at the level of a human expert in a particular domain • Decision Tree Analysis • Decision ToolPak • Add-in to Excel that facilitates construction of decision trees

18. User Expert Knowledge Documented Knowledge User Interface Knowledge Engineer Inference Engine Blackboard Knowledge Base User Environment Development Environment Common Expert System Architecture

19. Uncertainty Decision Decision Tree Analysis Decision tree: Diagram that models choices and uncertainties and can be extended to include multiple, sequential decisions

20. Decision Tree Analysis Inputs

21. Decision Tree Analysis Output

22. Guest Speaker • Professor David Hartvigsen

23. Assigned Reading • Read chapter 6 (pp. 218-223, 236-249) in text • Following are questions that you should be sure you can answer based on your understanding of the text: • What happens in each of the three phases of decision making as outlined by Simon? • What is the difference between a programmed and nonprogrammed decision? • What are the differences between the optimization, satisficing, and heuristics approach to choosing a decision solution? • What is the difference between an ad hoc and an institutional DSS? • What are the roles of the three different components of a DSS? • What is a GDSS? • What are some of the characteristics of GDSS that facilitate group decision making? • What are some typical features of an executive support system?