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Climate change impacts on water resources in the southeastern U.S. – Can we adapt?

Climate change impacts on water resources in the southeastern U.S. – Can we adapt?. Peter Caldwell USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center Raleigh, NC SWPBA Annual Meeting, November 2011. Climate change- The scientific basis. IPCC AR4, 2007.

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Climate change impacts on water resources in the southeastern U.S. – Can we adapt?

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  1. Climate change impacts on water resources in the southeastern U.S. – Can we adapt? Peter Caldwell USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center Raleigh, NC SWPBA Annual Meeting, November 2011

  2. Climate change- The scientific basis IPCC AR4, 2007

  3. Unprecedented rate of change IPCC AR4, 2007

  4. The evidence of change Temperature Sea level Snow cover IPCC AR4, 2007

  5. “Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced” USGCRP, 2009 IPCC AR4, 2007

  6. Variability v. Change Change Variability Bottom of Hill (current climate)‏

  7. Precipitation USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009

  8. Temperature USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009

  9. Extremes: Drought USGCRP, 2009

  10. Extremes: Heavy precipitation USGCRP, 2009

  11. Global Circulation Models • Coupled land & atmosphere models • Global coverage • Coarse resolution (e.g. 2° - ~100x100 km) • Have Biases • Spatial resolution • Model parameterization • Scale not appropriate for impact studies

  12. Bias correction and downscaling 2° resolution (100x100 km) Dynamic or statistical downscaling 1/8° resolution (12x12 km) Maurer, 2009

  13. Emission scenarios IPCC AR4, 2007

  14. Predicted global temperature IPCC AR4, 2007

  15. Temperature changes A1B Scenario, change in temp from 1900-1950 mean, multi-model mean and range A1B Scenario, change in temperature from 1980-1999 by 2080-2099, multi-model mean IPCC AR4, 2007

  16. Precipitation changes Number of models predicting increased precipitation Annual precipitation change A1B Scenario, change in precipitation from 1980-1999 by 2090-2099, multi-model mean IPCC AR4, 2007

  17. Key Issues for the Southeast • Heat-related stresses for people, plants, and animals • Decreased water availability • Sea-level rise, likely increase in hurricane intensity and storm surge • Ecological thresholds likely to be crossed throughout the region USGCRP, 2009

  18. US Forest Service: A Legacy Water Resources Management • Organic Act of 1897 “…securing favorable conditions of water flows…” • Weeks Law of 1911 “…..regulation of the flow of navigable streams or for the production of timber.” • Sustained Yield Forest Management Act of 1944 “….. maintenance of water supply, regulation of stream flow, prevention of soil erosion, amelioration of climate, and preservation of wildlife.” • National Forest Management Act of 1976 “…multiple use and sustained yield of the products and services obtained…the coordination of outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, wildlife and fish, and wilderness.”

  19. The future of USFS water resources management

  20. Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) Model Landuse change Population Climate Reservoir GW Infrastructure Economics Supply Demand J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 44:1441 – 1457, 2008

  21. Watershed and Land Cover Based Water Balance ET = f(PET, LAI, PPT, SM) Q = PPT – ET +/- DS Carbon Balance GEP = f(ET) Re = f(GEP) NEE = Re - GEP PPT ET Biodiversity BIO = f(ET) -Birds -Amphibians -Reptiles -Trees -Mammals -Vertebrates GEP Q Re

  22. Climate and Population Scenarios Baseline (2001-2010) vs. Future (2051-2060)

  23. Simulated 2001-2010 water yield

  24. Predicted trend in water yield

  25. Predicted trend in water yield2011-2060

  26. Simulated 2001-2010 streamflow

  27. Predicted change in flow by 2051-2060

  28. Change in water demand by 2051-2060

  29. Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) Demand WaSSI = Surface + Groundwater Supply • Water Stress: Average annual WaSSI ≥ 0.4 • United Nations (Raskin et al., 1997) • World Water Council (Alcamo, 2000; Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2000) • Vörösmarty et al., 2000

  30. Mean WaSSI in 2051-2060

  31. Stream temperature changes Predicted trend in mean annual stream temperature 2010-2060, mean among four scenarios

  32. Sediment delivery changes Predicted change in rainfall erosivity (R) by 2050

  33. What can we do? • Mitigate • Reduce carbon emissions • Enhance carbon sequestration • Adapt • Enhance ecosystem resilience • Enhance infrastructure resilience • Embrace uncertainty “If mitigation is about carbon, then adaptation will be about water”

  34. Thank you! Peter Caldwell pcaldwell02@fs.fed.us 919.515.1560 www.forestthreats.org

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