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PLANNING SITUATIONS - a general approach to scenario development -

PLANNING SITUATIONS - a general approach to scenario development -. Iver Johansen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. FOUR PROBLEMS. Jamming by scenarios Flawed scenario selection Scenarios as predictions Scenario officialism. PLANNING SITUATIONS AND SCENARIOS. Planning situations:

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PLANNING SITUATIONS - a general approach to scenario development -

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  1. PLANNING SITUATIONS- a general approach to scenario development - Iver Johansen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment

  2. FOUR PROBLEMS • Jamming by scenarios • Flawed scenario selection • Scenarios as predictions • Scenario officialism

  3. PLANNING SITUATIONS AND SCENARIOS Planning situations: - General types of threats and challenges X X X • Scenarios: • Specific points • within the • “scenario space” X X X X X X PI PII PIII ……………… Pn

  4. PLANNING SITUATIONS- PARAMETERS - • Object of security: • Norway • “The rest of the world” • Type of actor • Non-state actors • State actors • Russia • Type of conflict

  5. CONFLICT TYPOLOGY INTENSITY Low High • Low intensity conflicts • International crises • Sabotage • Small-scale terrorist attacks • Incidents • War between states • War within states • Large-scale terrorist attacks • Limited attacks High SCOPE Low

  6. PLANNING SITUATIONS: PARAMETERS PARAMETERS VALUES Security object NorwayRest of the world Type of actor Non-state actorsstate actorsRussia Intensity of conflict LowHigh Scope of conflict LowHigh

  7. NATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS INTENSITY Low High P4 Russia High • International crisis and war SCOPE P2 Non-state actors • Terrorist attacks State actors/Russia State actors/Russia Low • Limited attack • Missile attack • Raids P1 • Incidents • Low-level crises P3

  8. INTERNATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS INTENSITY Low High Non-state actors/state actors/ Russia Non-state actors • War between states • War within states • Large-scale terrorist • attacks • Limited attacks High • Organised crime • Terrorist attacks • Sabotage • Riots P5 SCOPE P6 Non-state actors Low State actors

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