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ROA Panel Comments

ROA Panel Comments. Tim Josling Stanford University. Introduction. I am an “outsider” to the project I currently work on trade issues I am more familiar with domestic policies of developed countries I know only a few of the 11 countries in ROA But I am very pleased to be on the panel!.

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ROA Panel Comments

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  1. ROA Panel Comments Tim Josling Stanford University Tim Josling

  2. Introduction • I am an “outsider” to the project • I currently work on trade issues • I am more familiar with domestic policies of developed countries • I know only a few of the 11 countries in ROA • But I am very pleased to be on the panel! Tim Josling

  3. OUTLINE • Focus my remarks into two topics • How do these case studies fit in with notions about policy reform in developed countries? • Where is the interface between the ROA study and the regional and multilateral trade system? Tim Josling

  4. Dynamics of Policy Reform • Students of policy reform have made use of the concept of a policy paradigm • Paradigms are a bundle of policy ideas, beliefs about reality, aims and objectives, policy instruments, and associated interest group/political support • Agricultural policy paradigms are useful “shorthand” for different policy situations Tim Josling

  5. (Over)simplify policy choices • Agricultural Policy Paradigms • Set of ideas about the nature of agriculture • Consistent objectives for government action • Instruments designed to achieve objectives • Political base and pressure from interest groups • World market view • Trade policy objectives • Paradigm is the policy plus its rationale Tim Josling

  6. Paradigms in ROA • Six paradigms apparent • Agriculture Ignored • Agriculture Exploited • Agriculture Supported • Agriculture Liberalized • Agriculture as Public Good • Agriculture Retail-driven Tim Josling

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  12. Paradigms and Countries • Many countries exhibit more than one paradigm • Can vary by commodity, depending on structure, efficiency and trade patterns • Can vary over time, depending on non-agricultural policy paradigms, macroeconomic conditions and external situation Tim Josling

  13. Dynamics? • Is there a progression through the stages? • Can one skip a stage? • Can one go backwards? • Are some stages precluded by conditions in non-farm sector? • Are these stages a useful way to think about future scenarios? Tim Josling

  14. Exploited Agriculture Ignored Agriculture Supported Agriculture Liberalized Agriculture Public Good Agriculture Retail-Driven Agriculture Tim Josling

  15. Links to Trade System • WTO and RTAs have a significant role to play in the development of agriculture • Some RTAs restrict policy options (Mexico and NAFTA) • WTO/URAA is a “Framework” for national policies, even if it has not yet driven policy in ROA countries • WTO will become even more “restraining” in future Tim Josling

  16. Links between Paradigms and Trade Rules • Uruguay Round featured the paradigm clash between Supported and Liberalized models • Agreement on Agriculture paved the way for Liberalized Agriculture rules system • Supported agriculture still survived as a result of high levels of border protection, export subsidies and domestic support • TRIPS, GATS paved the way for Retail-driven Agriculture rules Tim Josling

  17. Links between Paradigms and Trade Rules, contd. • Public-goods paradigm not addressed in UR, but included as “non-trade concerns” in Doha round • Retail-driven paradigm rising on agenda: EU now pushing for the inclusion of Geographical Indications (GIs); GM issue before a panel, etc. • Current Doha Round floundering as developing countries complain about supported paradigms in developed countries but wish to retain them for their own economies Tim Josling

  18. Links to Trade System • Market Access • NAMA • Agric tariffs • TRQs • Safeguards • Special Products • Preferences Tim Josling

  19. Links to Trade System • Export Competition • Subsidies • Food aid • Export credit • Single-desk sellers Tim Josling

  20. Links to Trade System • Domestic Support • Article 6.2 • Development box • Benefits of cap on all developed country subsidies Tim Josling

  21. Links to Trade System • SPS • Representation on standard setting agencies • Meeting developed country standards • Use of biotech Tim Josling

  22. Links to Trade System • TRIPS • Biotech patents • Plant breeders rights • GIs for foodstuffs Tim Josling

  23. Links to Trade System • GATS • Liberalisation of infrastructure services • Wholesale services • Movement of natural persons Tim Josling

  24. Links to Trade System • Singapore Issues? • Transparency in Government Procurement • Trade and Competition • Trade and Investment • Trade Facilitation • Linkage to agriculture much less direct Tim Josling

  25. Links to Trade System • RTAs • Preferential market access • Constraints on export competition • Trade remedies • Dispute settlement processes • Improved investment conditions • But not much on subsidies • Labor migration within RTAs? Tim Josling

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