Political Beliefs and Behaviors

1. Political Beliefs and Behaviors American political ideology

2. What’s your political belief? • Survey given to 10-14 year olds • One day the President was driving his car to a meeting. Because he was late, he was driving very fast. The police stopped the car. (Finish the story) • Different countries answer differently • England – Queen would be released • France – President would be excused • US – President would get a ticket like everyone else

3. Types of Participation 2000 Election participation • 82% watched the campaign on television • 73% voted in the election • 34% tried to influence others how to vote • 10% put a sticker on their car • 9% gave money to help a campaign • 5% attended a political meeting • 3% worked for a party or candidate • Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No

4. Who REALLY participates? Different factors can tell us who votes • Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more education=more voting • Religious involvement • Race and Ethnicity – Whites higher than minorities (might be economic based) • Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up is the highest

5. Who REALLY participates? • Gender – men traditionally voted more, now it is more equal • Two-party competition – more competitive elections have higher turnout Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals influenced by many factors, it is important when testing for this that variables are controlled

6. Voting Trends • 1964 – 69.3% • 1968 – 60.8% • 1972 – 55.2% • 1976 – 53.5% • 1980 – 52.6% • 1984 – 53.1% • 1988 – 50.1% • 1992 – 55.1% • 1996 – 49.1% • 2000 – 51.2% • 2004 – 56.7% • 2008 – 57.3% • 2008 Highest – Minnesota 73.2%; Lowest – Texas 45.5% KY – 55.7%; OH – 65.1%

7. Expanding Suffrage • Lifting of property restrictions (1830) – “universal manhood suffrage” gave voting rights to all white males • Suffrage for African-Americans (1863-1964) • 1870 - 15th Amendment – Voting Rights to all • 1954 - Brown v. Board – separate but equal is illegal, killed Jim Crow laws • 1964 24th Amendment – banned poll tax • 1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law prohibited (no literacy tests, fair elections etc.)

8. Expanding Suffrage • Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote • 18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th Amendment, sparked by Vietnam

9. Voter Turnout • Registered Voter turnout • Eligible Voter turnout • Voter Registration – blamed as one of the causes of low turnout • “Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter Registration Act – allowed people to register to vote while they get license

10. Other reasons for low turnout • Difficulty of Absentee Voting • Number of Offices to Elect too high • Weekday, non-holiday voting • Weak political parties – less “get-out-the-vote campaigns

11. Public Opinion • The distribution of individual attitudes about a particular issue, candidate, political institution, etc.

12. George Gallup • Developed “Gallup Polls” • Started in 1932 • 1st “pollster” • Since 1936, agency has picked one general election result incorrect

13. Sampling • Representative – must mirror population you want answer about • Random – give everyone an equal possibility of being sampled • Wording – questions can’t be leading • Straw poll – poor polling technique

14. Political Socialization • Factors that influence a person’s opinion • People in different social “groups” tend to share certain opinions: group identification

15. Family • #1 influence of political attitude • Very strong correlation for Political Party support

16. Gender Examples • More men support military • More women consider sexual harassment a serious problem • Since ’60s, women vote Dem more than men, and vice versa • Not as significant of an indicator as marriage (married vs. unmarried)

17. Religion Example • Protestants are more conservative on economic matters than Catholics or Jews • Jews tend to be liberal on economic and social issues than Catholics or Protestants • Catholics tend to be more liberal on economic issues than they are on social issues (Catholics becoming more conservative) • CROSS PRESSURE – Pro-life (vote R); Labor union member (vote D) – which way will they vote?

18. Education Example • Higher Education = more conservative or • College education = liberal views Conflicting results, not always a correlation

19. Social Class • “Blue collar” (Laborer) typically Democrat • “White collar” (Businessmen) typically Republican Relationship is becoming less clear

20. Race and Ethnicity Examples • African Americans – 90% Democrats • Hispanic Americans – tend to affiliate with Democrats, but less likely than African Americans • Asian Americans – less liberal than Hispanic Americans or African Americans, but still consistently vote Democrat • White, more divided, fluctuates by election

21. Geographic Region Example • East and West Coasts – more liberal • Mid-West – more conservative • Urban - liberal • South – 1870-1950s - Democrat “Solid South” but today they are primarily social conservatives • White Southerner always less liberal

22. Political Ideology • Coherent set of values and beliefs about public policy • Changes over time for all people • Liberal and conservative mean different things at different time periods

23. How ideological are Americans? • 1950 study – “The American Voter” • 4 basic types of voter • Ideologues – 12% of people connect their opinions to party lines • Group Benefits Voter – 42% of people connect their opinion to their “group”. (labor union, interest group, class, race)

24. How ideological are Americans? 3. Nature of the times voter – 24% of the people linked good or bad times to the party in control and vote the opposite (usually based on economics). 4. No Issue Content – 22% of the people could give no reason

25. Liberal vs. Conservative • Video explanation – take notes on video • 26 minutes

26. Exit Polls • Polling after voting - Tommy Bradley effect (also Obama???) • Some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. • Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or 'politically correct'. • The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers. • Some analysts have dismissed the theory of the Bradley effect,[9] or argued that it may have existed in past elections, but not in more recent ones. Others believe that it is a persistent phenomenon