The State of the Nation’s Hurricane Forecast and Warning Program

1. The State of the Nation’s Hurricane Forecast and Warning Program Bill Proenza, Director National Hurricane Center (NOAA- National Weather Service) March 5, 2007

2. Our Hurricane Challenge • Fifty percent of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast! • Since ’95, we’ve entered several decades of increased tropical cyclone activity. • Despite a high level of national concern over the threat to life and the Nation’s economic wellbeing, insufficient resources prevents needed operational science and technology infusion. • We are compelled to make extraordinary efforts to “partner” our national talents and resources.

3. Recent Visibility • Reports cite needed large investments for operational hurricane research • National Science Board • The NOAA Science Advisory Board’s Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group • OFCM’s Interagency Tropical Cyclone Plan • But although opportunities are significant, our already limited resources have just been further reduced in some area, e.g. NHC Joint Hurricane Testbed has been further cut to a shortfall level of at least $700,000 per year.

4. National Weather ServiceRecent Key Accomplishments • NHC met its NWS 2006 “GPRA” goal (48-hour track forecasts). • NHC and many WFOs received Gold Performance Medals for 2003, 2004, 2005 as well as Congressional commendations and Presidential visits. • Success of the Joint Hurricane Testbed provided funds to proposals from the Universities(32%), Navy(16%), NASA(11%), other NOAA(18%) and private sector(23%). All for expediting research to operations. • NHC extended forecasts from 3 to 5 days (in 2003) and introduced probabilistic wind speed products (in 2005). • Experimental storm surge probabilities (in 2006) • Weather Forecast Offices have made significant performance improvements in tornado lead times and flash flood warnings.

5. Program Gaps Identified by NHC in 2004 • Inadequate real-time marine observations for better forecasts and analysis which is also critical for model initialization & verification √ some progress: Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer on USAFR aircraft in 2007, and a few expanded marine buoys..thanks to Supplemental Bill • Higher resolution hurricane models including better data assimilation… √ some progress: Hurricane WRF becomes operational in ‘07, thanks to the Supplemental Bill. BUT…..

6. Ocean Surface Vector Winds • QuikSCAT, a critical ocean surface wind vector satellite sensor gives us wind fields (speed anddirection) currently HAS NO SCHEDULED REPLACEMENT: • provides absolutely critical data for NWS operational warnings, forecasts and models • is well beyond its life expectancy • Offers us wind field data critically important for the much needed improvements in hurricane intensity prediction. • Urgent need: a next-generation QuikSCAT on an accelerated timetable (consistent with recommendation by the NRC Decadal Survey). • Consequences? Degradation of the National Hurricane Program capabilities ! AND…..

7. Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) • JHT has been immediately successful in transferring research to operations • The 1 to 2 year JHT proposals allows some high priority operational applications and modeling needs to be addressed • JHT budget (projects and infrastructure) again cut this year for a total annual shortfall of at least $700,000 annually. Impact: loss of hurricane prediction projects supporting protection of life

8. Priority-Setting and Coordination within NOAA • Operational requirements need to drive research priorities (e.g., PPBES) • Again, we are compelled to optimize our hurricane program resources • Collaboration needs to be strengthened: • NWS/NHC and the WFOs (operations) • NWS/EMC, OAR/GFDL, CIs (operational numerical modeling), AOML/HRD… • NESDIS, NWS/NHC (satellite applications) • NOS, NWS/MDL and NHC (Storm surge modeling and applications)

9. Next Steps • We are compelled to make extraordinary efforts to enhance our Nation’s Hurricane Warning Program. • Toward that end, I ask for a new collaboration for all of us to increase, pool and coordinate our resources for operational needs. • That this effort be clearly led by this program’s mission delivery partners as a leadership team with OFCM charged as the facilitator of this effort. • That the team be able to represent the science, and make resource commitments (or have access to the decision makers) for the tropical cyclone community.

10. Dedicated Modeling Group • Improvements to hurricane forecasting over the past few decades have come primarily from NOAA/EMC • Significant contributions from NOAA/GFDL • Only 2 base-funded modelers and some contractors funded by soft-money to make advancements ! • An expanded hurricane modeling group led by NWS operational modeling center (EMC) is required for improvements in hurricane intensity and track forecasting • An increase in computing resources will also be required