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Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate , the MACC project and its relevance to EMEP

Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate , the MACC project and its relevance to EMEP. Leonor Tarras ó n EMEP/MSC-W, met.no. 9 th TFMM meeting, 23-25 th April 2008, Bordeaux, France. Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate.

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Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate , the MACC project and its relevance to EMEP

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  1. Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate , the MACC project and its relevance to EMEP Leonor Tarrasón EMEP/MSC-W, met.no 9th TFMM meeting, 23-25th April 2008, Bordeaux, France

  2. Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate • A proposed pilot core GMES Atmospheric Service, pilot core GAS, funded under FP7 for 2009-2011 • Successor to the GEMS FP6 project and core elements of ESA-funded GMES Service Element project PROMOTE • Passed evaluation thresholds with highest mark among GMES projects and is presently under contract negotiations

  3. Envisaged evolution of the core GASGMES Atmospheric Service GEMS EC FP6 Integrated Project 2005 - 2009 PROMOTE ESA GMES Service Element 2004 - 2009 MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate Proposed EC FP7 Integrated Project 2009 - 2011 Operational core GMES Atmospheric Service (GAS) 2012 - ........

  4. The MACC Partnership • 45 national entities (universities, labs, environment agencies, …) from18 European States, plus ECMWF and JRC • Partners include 11 Met Services from Member and Cooperating States of ECMWF • Supporting organizations comprise several other national institutes, also EUMETSAT and WMO • Adrian Simmons from ECMWF is project coordinator

  5. Envisaged GAS Architecture R E S E A R H OBSERVATION SUPPLY In-situ & Space; Direct & Retrieved D A T A S E R V I C E S E N D U S E R S GLOBAL Monitoring & Forecasting EUROPEAN-SCALE Assimilation & Ensembles Downstream Services including education and training Other GMES Core Services

  6. Envisaged GAS Architecture R E S E A R H OBSERVATION SUPPLY In-situ & Space; Direct & Retrieved D A T A S E R V I C E S E N D U S E R S M A C C GLOBAL Monitoring & Forecasting EUROPEAN-SCALE Assimilation & Ensembles Downstream Services including education and training Other GMES Core Services

  7. The MACC Project Architecture O B S E R V A T I O N S In-situ and satellite data acquisition, retrievals and pre-processing Fire analysis and other emissions GLOBAL P R O D U C T S REGIONAL Bridge to downstream services and other users, and products to support health and policy services Users Inventories

  8. The MACC Global Data Assimilation, Production and Service Component GEMS pre-production analysis and forecasting system Satellite and in-situ observations; estimates of fire and other emissions ECMWF meteorological operations and climate reanalysis Other MACC global components Global data assimilation Global production Global services Greenhouse gas modelling Greenhouse gas assimilation Integrated analysis and forecasting system Real time Product generation Product display, supply and general web services MACC Regional AQ Other GMES core services Reactive gas modelling Reactive gas assimilation Six-month delayed mode Monitoring and validation Downstream services Aerosol modelling Aerosol assimilation Reanalysis (2003-2010) End users

  9. The Regional MACC cluster Global reactive gases and aerosols End users UV and solar radiation Regional data assimilation Outreach to national forecasting Global Production Regional ensemble forecasting Satellite and in-situ observations; fire and other emissions Support to policy and risk assessment Regional air-quality assessment 6 (+) operational assimilation and forecast systems to provide ensemble results

  10. Trial versions demonstrated on partner’s websites

  11. Regional air quality products in GEMS

  12. Today’s ensemble prognose for Ozone

  13. Met.no uses the Unified EMEP model in forecast mode for GEMS

  14. Esmeralda A regional forecasting tool … From national to regional Daily modeling… …To a chimere regional modelling. … With local focus A chimere daily National Forecasting, www.prevair.org

  15. Esmeralda a regional mapping tool … From national to regional Daily modelling… improved by observed datas Analysed daily maximum maps Ozone forecasting NO2 forecasting

  16. Maps of air pollution; Mixing Background and traffic Hourly NO2 concentrations: example : 18th November 2005 6h-7h 7h-8h 8h-9h  : Fixed sources • : AIRPARIF monitoring sites Good trends for NO2 hourly means But night urban background under estimated (20 µg/m3)

  17. Products from MACC relevant to EMEP • Daily forecasts of global air quality (1x1) • Daily forecasts of regional air quality (0.5x0.5) for European region • Ensemble forecasts of European air quality • Daily forecasts of regional air pollution with source allocation • Emergency toolbox for special risk situations • Re-analysis of air quality status in Europe every 6-months

  18. Why is forecastingair pollution useful for EMEP ? Air pollution forecasting in itself is not a goal for EMEP, but it is a useful mean to: • Investigate further how air pollution affects the weather systems • Knowledge about pollution can improve weather forecasts • Step towards a better understanding of climate system • Effectively combine model data and observations • Valuable data assimilation techniques • Enhance the use of satellite data and these are indeed goals of the EMEP programme…

  19. New developments: The world is turning NRT! Proposal for MACC under GMES: • Ensemble of RAQ models every day • Forecasting with source allocation every day • Emergency scenario responses for risk situations • Re-analysis of status of air quality every 6 months (!) • Further integration of models, monitoring data and reduction of uncertainties

  20. How should the EMEP community contribute? FAQ to EMEP • Why does it take 2 years to get the EMEP meausurements ? Can we get the measurement data earlier? • Why EMEP reports are always 2 years arrears ? • Can we get the SR data earlier? • Now that the emission data is in the WebDab, can we get the data earlier that from 2-years arrears? • .... • EEA ozone reports are available after 6 months – • National reports on PM exceedances are available after 1 year • User groups in GEMS require status reports every 6 months

  21. A key point isquality and reliability of the resultsQuality assurance takes time !Still, we need to find ways to secure the rapid delivery (RD) of EMEP data

  22. How to improve the timeliness of EMEP results keeping its quality? • How can we provide information on the status of transboundary air pollution before 2 years? • What are the limitations at the EMEP modelling centers (MSC-E and MSC-W) ? • What are the limitations at CCC ? • What actions should be proposed to compile monitoring data from countries within a shorter time frame than 2 years? • What actions can be proposed for countries to deliver emission data more often?

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