Public Opinion and Political Behaviors

1. Public Opinion and Political Behaviors Unit IIC Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

2. Political Efficacy • Voting in elections • Learning and understanding political knowledge • Having political discussions • Attending political meetings • Forming interest groups • Contacting public officials • Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot issue • Financial contributions • Running for office • Protesting public policies and/or officials

3. Voting - The Democratic Process • Voting exemplifies a “government by the people” • The American electorate determine policy and policymakers • Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states • Vote in local, state, and national elections

4. Voter Requirements • An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote • States determine registration requirements and qualifications • State residency requirement of usually 30 days • Prisoners • Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993) • Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license • Register by mail

5. Expansion of Suffrage • Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800 • 15th Amendment (1870) • Guaranteed blacks the right to vote • 19th Amendment (1920) • Guaranteed women the right to vote • 23rd Amendment (1961) • Guaranteed right to vote for D.C. • 24th Amendment (1964) • Prohibited poll taxes • Harper v. Virginia Board of Elections (1966)* • Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965 • Eliminated voting restrictions for blacks • Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests • 26th Amendment (1971) • Guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older

6. Who Votes? • High Level of Education • Higher Incomes • White-Collar Workers • Older Generations • Whites • Women • Religious • Union Members • Strong Community Members • Strong Political Party Members • Competitive Election Districts

7. Why Won’t People Vote? • Negative campaigns • Numerous and frequent elections • Lack of party identification • Similarity between candidates • Mistrust in government • Apathy or Status Quo • Lack of political efficacy • Voter registration difficulties • Feeling of not belonging to a community

8. How People Vote • Vote based on political party • Vote based on the issues • Vote based on campaigns • Vote based on coalitions

9. Voting Based on Political Party • Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter • Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated • Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout

10. Voting Based on the Issues • Prospective Voting • Vote based on information of issues and candidates • Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000 • Retrospective Voting • Vote based on past events whether successful or failed • Ex. The economy suffered during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008

11. Voting Based on the Campaign • Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters • Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility • Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values

12. Voting Based on a Coalition • Democrats • Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews • Support for minority-based policies (affirmative action, civil rights) • However, limited popular contribution • Moderate support among most hispanics • Support for pro-immigration policies • Low voter turnout • Catholics and unions divided • Based on conservative stance on social issues (abortion) • Republicans • Strong loyalties among businesses and conservatives • Support for tax cuts and limited economic regulation • Social conservatives (evangelicals) • Moderate support among farmers and professionals • Farmers and professionals can switch based on economy

13. Types of ElectionsPrimary Elections • Primary Elections • Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate from each party to run in general election • Closed Primary • Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate • Open Primary • Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting party in the voting booth • Blanket Primary • Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different positions • Runoff Primary • Election between top two candidates who received the most votes but neither received the majority of votes • California Democratic Party v. Jones (2000)

14. 2008 Democratic Primary Election California ballot

15. Types of ElectionsGeneral Elections • Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents • Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation

16. Types of ElectionsSpecial Elections • Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election • Initiative • Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures • Referendum • Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people • Recall • Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a public official • Special elections are only held at the state or local levels

17. Congressional Elections • Held every two years on even-numbered years • Every two years to elect Representatives • Senatorial elections may be held (1/3rd of Senators) • Mid-Term Elections • “Off-Year” Elections held between presidential elections • Lower voter turnout • Incumbency Effect • Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in office, or good campaigning • Reelection Rates of U.S. House and U.S. Senate (1964-2012) • Franking privilege • Free mailings to constituents • Coattail Effect • Weak or less known candidates win based on success of popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

18. Franking Privilege

19. Congressional ElectionsCongressional Apportionment and Districts • Congress established number of representatives for House at 435 (1911) • Each state with at least one representative • Currently, one representative per 709,760 • Reapportionment every 10 years based on national census • Redistricting • States draw congressional districts • Districts must be relatively equal • Consequences • Malapportionment - districts of unequal size • Gerrymandering • Drawing districts to favor a political party or group • Baker v. Carr (1962) • Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) • Reynolds v. Sims (1964) • Shaw v. Reno (1993)

20. Florida’s 2013 U.S. House Districts

21. Gerrymandering

22. Congressional ElectionsPrimary Elections • Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot • Primary election determines party nominee

23. Presidential Elections • Held every four years • Phases of Presidential Candidacy: • Exploration • Announcement • Primaries and Caucuses • Nominating Conventions • General Election Campaign • Electoral College

24. Presidential ElectionExploration • Does a candidate have enough political and financial support? • Sets up an exploratory committee to find out • Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention

25. Presidential ElectionAnnouncement • Candidate decides to run for office • Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president • Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda

26. Presidential ElectionCampaign Strategies • Staff • Political consultant • Finance chairperson • Communications Director • Press Secretary • Visibility and Appeal • Pollster and Tracking Polls • Focus Groups • Get Out the Vote (GOTV)

27. Presidential ElectionPrimaries and Caucuses • Primaries • Voters from primary states vote for the party nominee • State delegates throw support toward primary vote winner • Most commonly used method • Front-loading • Howard Dean Scream (2004) • Caucuses • Historically, state and party leaders met and chose nominee • Very few states use caucuses • Iowa’s caucus is the first major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party

28. Presidential ElectionNominating Conventions • Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates • Choose presidential nominee, vice-presidential nominee, party platform, unify party • Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…

29. Republican National Convention • Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates • Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries • In 2012, the Republican nominee required 1,144 out of 2,286

30. Democratic National Convention • Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates • State primary results determine candidate pledges • “Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee • In 2012, the Democratic nominee required 2,777 out of 5,556

31. Presidential/Congressional ElectionCampaigning • Position Issues • Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing views • Examples: • Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life • Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual • Valence Issues • Universally shared views and voters determine which candidate is more likely to address/solve • Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence issues • Examples: • Low unemployment • Low crime

32. Presidential/Congressional ElectionCampaigning • Television • Paid advertisement - spots • News broadcasts - visuals • Debates • Televised or town hall • Gain exposure, usually for lesser-knowns • Could lead to showcase flaws • Rick Perry Gaffe • Direct Mail/Internet • Lists used to direct specific issue-based ads to specific demographics • Useful to earn campaign funds Nixon - Kennedy Debate 1960

33. 1988 Presidential Campaign • Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D) • Read My Lips • Tank Ad • Willie Horton Ad

34. Campaign FinanceCongressional and Presidential • “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D) • Sources of Campaign Money • Campaign Finance Rules • Campaign Finance Reform • Effect of Campaign Finance

35. Sources of Campaign Money • Private individuals are primary sources • Federal government matches individual contributions to presidential candidates • Congressional candidates receive no federal funds • Political Action Committees (PACS) secondary source • Hard money • Financial contribution directly given to candidate • Soft money • Financial contribution given to political party as a whole

36. Campaign Finance Reform • Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments • Required disclosure of donors • Limits on individual contributions • Established Federal Election Commission (FEC) • Buckley v. Valeo (1976) • Constitutional: • Limits on individual contributions • Disclosure of contributions • Unconstitutional: • Limits on campaign expenditures

37. Campaign Finance Reform • Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain-Feingold Act • Banned soft money to national parties • Restricted PAC campaign ads • 527 organization • Non-profit, tax-exempt political committee may not campaign directly for candidate or political party • May address issue or character of a candidate • Publicly disclose finances and donors • Ex. Swift Boat Veterans, MoveOn.org • Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) • Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing unlimited financial support for campaign support ads • Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech

38. Campaign Finance Limits

39. Presidential ElectionGeneral Election • Electoral College • Majority of electoral votes - 270 • Winner-Take-All • Nebraska and Maine* • Campaign in Electoral-rich states • Top 11 states would give a candidate 270 electoral votes • http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bDDz • California (55), Texas (38), New York (29), Florida (29), Illinois (20), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), New Jersey (14) • Swing States • Florida in 2000 Election • Ohio in 2004 Election

40. 2000 Election - Gore/Bush

41. 2004 Election - Bush/Kerry

42. 2008 Election - Obama/McCain

43. Electoral Map (2012)

44. 2012 Electoral Map by District

45. Results of Elections • Maintaining Election • Majority party/power maintains power and traditional voter loyalties • Deviating Election • Minority power wins with support of new voters, but voters maintain traditional loyalties • Usually temporary due to current issues or events • Critical/Realigning Election • Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and maintains subsequent power • Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events • Dealigning Election • Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties • Split-ticket voting

46. Realigning/Critical Election • 1920s dominated by Republicans in Congress and White House • Great Depression hits in 1929 • 1932 Election • Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites • Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress