Public Opinion and Political Socialization

1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization 10 Zhang Jun/Newscom

2. Public Opinion What the public thinks about a particular issue at a particular time. Short term Changes rapidly Can be measured Public opinion polling then is the thermometer by which opinions are measured. 10.1

3. Earliest Public Opinion Research Polling to predict winner of elections (1824 – PA newspaper) Polling to discover public opinions Walter Lippmann's Public Opinion – call to learn more about what the public thinks. Wrote a book observing public opinion was limited in spite of its importance Literary Digest Magazine (1916) Straw poll pioneer though unscientific Unsuccessfully predicted Landon over FDR in 1936. Sample, timing (too early) and self-selection errors (highly motivated sent cards back) 10.1

4. The Gallup Organization George Gallup Founder of modern day polling Correctly predicted results of 36’ election Expanded research to study public opinion about politics and gave his newspaper clients a money-back guarantee that his predictions were more accurate than Literary Digest. 1940’s led to increased use of polling, sophistication and polling firms http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx 10.1

5. Designing the Survey & Sample Determining the content and phrasing of the questions Wording is crucial as questions can have bias "Push polls“ unscientific designed to change your opinion by providing negative information about a candidate that might cause you to vote against them Selecting the sample Population – entire group to be measured Random sampling – equal chance of being selected problematic because not every area is the same Stratified sampling – researchers divide population into several sampling regions. 10.2

6. Contacting Respondents Telephone polls Most frequent Random digit dialing survey most common type Tracking Polls – daily phone surveys to monitor impact of short-term campaign strategies In-person interviews Exit polls High rate of completion Can measure body language Internet polls Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls 10.2

7. Analyzing the Data Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns Data analyzed by computers Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed Reporting the data News organizations or campaigns 10.2

8. Shortcomings of Polling 10.3 • Survey Error • Limited Response Options • Lack of Information • Difficulty Measuring Intensity • Lack of Interest in Political Issues

9. Survey Error Margin of error Natural errors in statistical measurement Sampling error Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample 10.3

10. Limited Respondent Options Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) May not give respondents sufficient room to answer "Feeling thermometer" Respondents rate feelings 0—100 10.3

11. Lack of Information Filter questions Gauge how much respondents know about or have thought about an issue Responses to personal questions/moral value questions Feelings stronger about some issues 10.3

12. Difficulty Measuring Intensity Issues with strong feelings, such as: Big government Death penalty Support for the war on terrorism Smaller issues, such as: Electoral College Absentee ballot laws 10.3

13. Lack of Interest in Political Issues Many people lack an opinion on certain policies. Policies that do not affect people directly Policies that do not involve moral values Foreign policy Less likely to generate interest Domestic policy More likely to generate interest 10.3

14. Forming Political OpinionsPolitical Socialization 10.4 • Political Socialization • The process through which people acquire their political beliefs and values • Demographic Characteristics • Family, Peers, and School • The Mass Media • Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers • Political Knowledge

15. Demographic Characteristics Gender Women historically more liberal than men Race and Ethnicity Differences among and within races and ethnicities Age - From birth to 5 our parents have the greatest influence in our political behavior as adults Religion – one of the best indicators of public opinion 10.4

16. Family, Peers, and School Family influence Children learn political beliefs at an early age. Peers are influential in middle or high school Political socialization in school 10.4

17. The Mass Media Traditional news sources Americans are turning away from them. Non-traditional news media TV talk shows Talk radio Online magazines Blogs Cable and Internet Often skewed 10.4

18. Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Political leaders use media to influence public. President uses media as a “bully pulpit.” 10.4

19. Political Knowledge Political knowledge and political participation Have a reciprocal effect on each other Americans' level of civic knowledge Lower than 50 years ago Gender gap Also affected by education, number of children, and marital status 10.4

20. Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics 10.5 • The public has become more of a critical player in national and international politics. • Polling a key part of that involvement.