Public Opinion and Political Socialization

1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization 10

2. 10 LearningObjectives Trace the development of modern public opinion research 10.1 Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls 10.2

3. 10 LearningObjectives Assess the potential shortcomings of polling 10.3 Analyze the process by which people form political opinions 10.4

4. 10 LearningObjectives Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics 10.5

5. Roots of Public Opinion Research 10.1 • The Earliest Public Opinion Research • The Gallup Organization • The National Election Studies

6. The Earliest Public Opinion Research Polling to predict winner of elections Polling to discover public opinions Walter Lippmann’s Public Opinion Literary Digest Straw poll Sample 10.1

7. 10.1 Is polling always accurate?

8. 10.1 FIGURE 10.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been?

9. 10.1 10.1Which term describes the people who are polled? • Survey • Straw poll • Sample • Registered voters

10. 10.1 10.1Which term describes the people who are polled? • Survey • Straw poll • Sample • Registered voters

11. Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls 10.2 • Designing the Survey and Sample • Contacting Respondents • Analyzing the Data

12. Designing the Survey and Sample Determining the content and phrasing of the questions Wording is crucial “Push polls” Selecting the sample Population Random sampling Stratified sampling 10.2

13. Contacting Respondents Telephone polls Random digit dialing survey What’s the 21st Century issue with this? 10.2

14. 10.2 How are polls conducted?

15. Contacting Respondents Telephone polls Tracking polls 10.2

16. 10.2 FIGURE 10.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like?

17. Contacting Respondents In-person interviews Exit polls Internet polls Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls 10.2

18. Analyzing the Data Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns Data analyzed by computers Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed Reporting the data News organizations or campaigns 10.2

19. 10.2 10.2Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result? • Push poll • Straw poll • Tracking poll • Stratified sampling

20. 10.2 10.2Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result? • Push poll • Straw poll • Tracking poll • Stratified sampling

21. Shortcomings of Polling 10.3 • Survey Error • Limited Response Options • Lack of Information • Difficulty in Measuring Intensity • Lack of Interest in Political Issues

22. Survey Error Margin of error Natural errors in statistical measurement Sampling error Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample 10.3

23. Limited Response Option Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) May not give respondents sufficient room to answer “Feeling thermometer” Respondents rate feelings 0-100 10.3

24. 10.3 Can polls measure intensity of opinion?

25. Lack of Interest in Political Issues Many people lack an opinion on certain policies Policies that don’t affect people directly Policies that don’t involve moral values Foreign policy Less likely to generate interest Domestic policy More likely to generate interest 10.3

26. 10.3 10.3Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll? • Lack of interest in political issues • Difficulty in measuring intensity • Limited response options • Survey error • All of the above

27. 10.3 10.3Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll? • Lack of interest in political issues • Difficulty in measuring intensity • Limited response options • Survey error • All of the above

28. Forming Political Opinions 10.4 • Demographic Characteristics • Family, Peers, and School • The Mass Media • Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers • Political Knowledge

29. Demographic Characteristics Gender Women historically more liberal than men 10.4

30. 10.4 TABLE 10.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues?

31. Demographic Characteristics Race and ethnicity Differences among and within races and ethnicities Age affects political socialization Religion shapes political beliefs 10.4

32. Family, Peers, and School Family influence Children learn political beliefs at early age Peers are influential in middle or high school Political socialization in school 10.4

33. 10.4 How do you encourage young women to think about careers in politics?

34. 10.4 FIGURE 10.3: What are the ideological identifications of first-year college students?

35. The Mass Media Traditional news sources Americans are turning away from them Nontraditional news media Talk radio, online magazines, blogs Cable and Internet Often skewed 10.4

36. Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Political leaders use media to influence public President uses media as a bully pulpit 10.4

37. Political Knowledge Political knowledge and political participation Have a reciprocal effect on each other Americans’ level of civic knowledge Lower than 50 years ago 10.4

38. 10.4 TABLE 10.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge?

39. Political Knowledge Gender gap Also affected by education, number of children, and marital status 10.4

40. 10.4 10.4The process by which individuals develop their political views is called: • Communication and receptivity • Public education • Political socialization • Civic knowledge

41. 10.4 10.4The process by which individuals develop their political views is called: • Communication and receptivity • Public education • Political socialization • Civic knowledge

42. Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics 10.5 • Public has become more of a critical player in national and international politics • Polling a key part of that involvement

43. 10.5 10.5The influence of public opinion in politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to: • The increase in Americans’ civic knowledge • The increase in alternative political news sources • The increase in the number of polls • The decrease in traditional mass media

44. 10.5 10.5The influence of public opinion in politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to: • The increase in Americans’ civic knowledge • The increase in alternative political news sources • The increase in the number of polls • The decrease in traditional mass media

45. 10 What role do polls play in policy making? Should public opinion be considered when the government makes policy decisions? How much influence should public opinion have? Discussion Questions

46. Video: So What? 10 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/OConner_Ch10_Public_Opinion_Seg6_v2.html