1 / 61

Special Focus Session 2b: IBTrACS Activities and Updates

Special Focus Session 2b: IBTrACS Activities and Updates. I nternational B est Tr ack A rchive for C limate S tewardship. Ken Knapp David Levinson Michael Kruk Howard Diamond Ethan Gibney Paula Hennon Carl Schreck , III NOAA/NCDC. Outline. 1630 -1645 IBTrACS Introduction

frey
Download Presentation

Special Focus Session 2b: IBTrACS Activities and Updates

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Special Focus Session 2b:IBTrACS Activities and Updates

  2. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship Ken Knapp David Levinson Michael Kruk Howard Diamond Ethan Gibney Paula Hennon Carl Schreck, III NOAA/NCDC

  3. Outline • 1630 -1645 IBTrACS Introduction • Discussions: • 1645 – 1705 Best track parameters & data quality • 1705 - 1725 Best track continuity • 1725 - 1745 Global Reanalysis • Conclusions: • 1745 - 1800 IBTrACS wrap up

  4. Introduction

  5. IWTC-VI – Costa Rica, 2006: Recommendations • Reanalysis using: • current understanding • new techniques • WMO • Incorporate BT datasets into unified database • Make more homogeneous • Include metadata • New working group • BT experts • define standards • Establish reanalysis procedures • Operational agencies • Continue revising historical BT data • Denote how BT data were derived (e.g., wind/pres.) • Uncertainties in BT record should be determined and recorded }

  6. What is IBTrACS? • International • Many nations and agencies working together • Best Track • Information on tropical cyclones • Enormous impact on life and property worldwide • Archive • One-stop-shop • Climate • Global distribution • Cyclone intensity • Temporal variability • Stewardship • Maintaining data for future generations

  7. What IBTrACS is not … • A reanalysis • Absolutely, every storm, that ever occurred • What IBTrACS is… • Collection • Combination • Collaboration • Centralization • Scalable • WMO-recognized

  8. IBTrACS: Who we are • Data providers: • RSMCs: CPHC, IMD, JMA, La Reunion, Nadi, NHC • TCWCs: BoM, Wellington • Other: HKO, JTWC, CMA/STI • At WDC: • IBTrACS Team • Around the world: • Users providing feedback

  9. IBTrACS Data Formats • netCDF • CSV • WMO • HURDAT • ATCF • cXML • GIS shapefile Mean position Mean intensity Mean position JAOT Mean intensity Kruk et al., 2010 Ver. 1 Mean position Mean intensity Original positions & intensity Mean position BAMS Mean intensity Knapp el al., 2010 Ver. 2 Multiple intensities possible 1 intensity per report Original positions & intensity Other parameters as available WMO position In prep. WMO intensity Ver. 3

  10. IBTrACS: By the numbers • 14 sources • 31,002 total tracks • 500,000+ observations ~11,774 storms 6757 TCs with MSW>30 1884-2009 1949-2009 1877-2009 1851-2009 1848-2009 1907-2009 1848 - 2009

  11. IBTrACS Workshop • 5-7 May 2009 • Participants worldwide • Topics • Operational Best tracking procedures • Wind-pressure relationships • Wind speed conversions • Global Reanalysis • IBTrACS improvements • Meeting summary in March 2010, BAMS

  12. IBTrACS Workshop recommendations • The IBTrACS team should… • Document BT procedures, • Work with agencies • Through a survey • Provide all parameters as provided by original agency in IBTrACS • Distribute official and unofficial datasets of other TC related data • Archive all ancillary data • Get involved with the IWTC

  13. IBTrACS Workshop recommendations • Best tracking agencies should … • Report more parameters and use WMO format • Document current and historic BT practices • Standardize definitions of winds and wind conversions • Rescue and archive documents relevant to BT data • “Best track” throughout life cycle (through ET) • Encourage best track data discussions at IWTC

  14. Best Track Parameters and Data Quality

  15. A balancing act… Forecaster/ Analyst Time User needs Available Data

  16. Parameters in use WMO Parameters

  17. Parameter summary • From allagencies • Time, Latitude, longitude • Wind & Pressure • Cyclone type • From someagencies • Wind radii (5) • Radius of Maximum Winds (4) • Radius of outermost closed isobar (3) • Pressure of outermost closed isobar (2) • Dvorak Parameters: T-num and CI (2)

  18. User needs… • IBTrACS requested users to identify their needs • Results… • Storm size information • RMW, Wind radii, ROCI • Higher temporal resolution • More the just 6 hourly • Landfall, maximum intensity, etc.

  19. Best Track Parameter Questions: • Based on the WMO best track format parameters, which parameter could be most easily added to the BT record from your agency? • What next parameter would be of the most use for users? (researchers, etc.) • What would it take to add: • Confidence flags? • Quality indicators?

  20. Best Track Continuity

  21. IBTrACS Community Survey • An attempt to record historical operational “best tracking” practices • Questions include: • Are best track positions smoothed? If so, how? • Which year did your agency first begin acquiring SSM/I (other microwave imagery)? • What other changes to in situ, radiosondes or remote sensing data affected forecast and best tracking capability? • How was the cyclone maximum sustained wind speed determined?

  22. Survey response: • “There are limits to how precisely we can measure the locations and intensities even with in situ data, and the in situ sampling can be problematic. These problems get progressively worse the farther back in time one looks in the data. Satellite observations don’t exist before the 1960’s, and in situ data becomes far less systematic with time when looking back.”

  23. What areresearchersusing? 1944 1945 1958 1960 1964 1965 1965 1965 1970 1970 1986

  24. Data continuity and reliability • Regarding JTWC: • Chu et al. 2002 • “The authors rate the 1985-2000 best-tracks to be of high quality and urge users to use older data with caution.” • Could a similar analysis be performed for other agencies/basins?

  25. Best Tracks as aClimate Data Record • Assess dataset maturity based on the data • In use by the satellite data community • Assessment criteria include: • Algorithm stability • Metadata & Quality Assurance • Documentation • Validation • Scientific Applications • Could best track data be assessed with similar criteria?

  26. What is a good starting year for analyzing TC frequency? • IBTrACS 1st year Frequency Start • Global 1848 ? • NI 1877 ? • SI 1848 ? • WP 1945 ? • EP 1949 ? • SP 1907 ? • NA 1851 ?

  27. Questions: • What criteria are used to decide an appropriate starting year? • What is a good starting year for analyzing TC frequency? • When do counts become reliable? • What is a good starting year for analyzing TC intensity? • When do intensities become reliable? • What’s the best road forward to analyze continuity in each basin?

  28. Global Reanalysis

  29. Combining multiple sources • Number of agencies “best tracking” each storm

  30. Trends: Western Pacific Increasing or decreasing? Wu et al., 2006 Emanuel, 2005

  31. Application:Prioritize Reanalysis Maximum intensity? Accumulated uncertainty! 175 kt @ 10-min 88kt @ 10-min Western North Pacific Year Name Max MSW ( kt ) Δ ACE( 10 kt ) Δ PDI (10 kt ) 4 2 6 3 1951 Marge 175 - 88 = 87 40 66 1952 Bess 146 - 88 = 58 20 30 1954 June 165 - 114 = 51 25 40 1959 Tilda 165 - 110 = 55 23 40 1969 Ida 156 - 100 = 56 21 34 Annual PDI ~ 150

  32. Application: Prioritize Reanalysis South Pacific Annual PDI ~ 39 Southern Indian Ocean Annual PDI ~ 70

  33. Reanalysis underway • North Atlantic • HURDAT reanalysis effort • Currently ~1940s • Moving forward • South Indian Ocean (MeteoFrance) • Dvorak Reanalysis of AVHRR data prior to 1998 • Others??

  34. HURSAT-MW 1987-present ~ 25 km resolution ~ 12 hourly (or better) netCDF & imagery HURSAT: A tool for reanalysis Typhoon Tip HURSAT-AVHRR • 1978-present • 4km resolution • ~12 hourly • netCDF HR Mitch • GridSat – Globally Gridded Satellite • 1978-present • 8km resolution • 3 hourly • netCDF HR Wilma • HURSAT-B1 • 1978-present • 8km resolution • 3 hourly • netCDF & MPG movies HR Ivan HR Jeanne HR Karl HR Lisa

  35. Global Reanalysis Questions • What data could be prepared to aid a global reanalysis? • How could the TC community start the process of a global reanalysis? • Are there overlaps/synergies that can be exploited? • How would a reanalysis best be coordinated?

  36. Conclusion

  37. Finding IBTraCS • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ibtracs/ • Google: IBTrACS

  38. User feedback • 120+ registered users • Kudos • “Even though IBTrACS is still evolving, your efforts at homogenization on a global scale are very important.” • “Congratulations for getting this complete and publicly available! Keep up the great work!” • Feedback • Error corrections • Parameter requests – radius maximum winds, etc. • Contact Us at IBTrACS.Team@noaa.gov

  39. IBTrACS Community Survey • Take the survey online: www.surveymonkey.com/s/ibtracs • Or complete the survey via • Email • Word document • Phone • Talk with us at a conference • …

  40. Planned improvements • Include more variables • “If they provide it, so do we” • ROCI, RMW, Eye Diameter, T num, CI, … • Include non-developing storms • Forecast aid development • Document tropical cloud clusters • Other agencies as available

  41. IBTrACS 2nd Workshop • 11-15 April 2011 • Honolulu, Hawaii • Discussions on: • Operational best tracking procedures • Best track parameters • Best track data continuity • User needs • Global reanalysis

  42. Backup slides

  43. IBTrACS structure Recommendations RSMCs TCWCs Others Data providers Workshop Recommendations IBTrACS Team Feedback Feedback Peer review Create data Publications IBTrACS Data Users Data access

  44. IBTrACS Merging Position Pressure Wind Speed • Track of 1992 Typhoon Yvette

  45. New structure ideas Direct interactions BT Panel WMO- BT Expert Panel Recommendations • Workshops: • IWTC • IBTrACS • Conferences RSMCs TCWCs Others Membership RSMCs TCWCs Others Data providers Recommendations Requirements Recommendations Data Results Recommendations • Workshops: • IWTC • IBTrACS • Conferences Recommendations WMO-recognized IBTrACS Team Feedback Feedback WMO-recognized IBTrACS Team Feedback Feedback Users Peer review Create data Users Peer review Create data Pubs IBTrACS Data Data access Pubs IBTrACS Data Data access

  46. Storm frequency • Storms per decade

  47. StormIntensity Maximum intensity Mean Intensity (kt)

  48. InteragencyDifferences • Range in wind speed (kt) • Relative range (%)

  49. Changes in interagency differences

  50. Interagency differences:North Indian Ocean

More Related