ANTICIPATING THE “INEVITABLE WAR”

1. ANTICIPATING THE “INEVITABLE WAR” 1899-1914

2. THE WARS OF THE EARLY 20th CENTURY From colonial to industrial warfare

3. 1- THE SECOND BOER WAR (1899-1902) A war between Europeans in South Africa 1895: the Jameson Raid

4. PHASE 1: BRITISH DEFEATS British military tactics: processes used against non-European peoples (colonial warfare) Step 1: to provoke contact with the enemy Step 2: the use of superior firepower (riffles + machine guns + artillery) = swift destruction of the enemy

5. PHASE 2: THE BOERS ON THE DEFENSIVE The Boers: pre-emptive strikes into British-held territory British reinforcements = defensive tactic The good use of modern armament

6. TOWARDS A “TOTAL WAR” Lord Roberts’ overall military strategy: the occupation of enemy territory + the destruction of its resources + the deportation of civilians Phase 3: guerilla warfare

7. A NEW TYPE OF WAR Lord Kitchener: anti-guerilla warfare against European populations

8. 2- THE RUSSO-JAPANESE WAR (1904-1905) Industrial warfare Rival imperial ambitions over Manchuria and Korea Russia: the need for a warm water port (Port Arthur) No compromise reached= war

9. THE LESSONS OF THE WAR

10. 3- THE BALKAN WARS (1912-1913) The use of the artillery + war of trenches Frontal attacks unsuccessful + heavy casualties Atrocities against civilian populations

11. ANTICIPATING THE WAR: THE RISE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW The Treaty of Westphalia (1648): the sovereignty of states International law: a weak concept until the mid 1860s 1864: THE FIRST GENEVA CONVENTION

12. 1864: THE BIRTH OF THE RED CROSS The Battle of Solferino (1859) Henri Dunant

13. THE HAGUE CONFERENCES 1899-1907 A peace conference for the limitation of armaments Safeguarding the human rights of individuals involved in armed conflicts Nicolas II

14. THREE SECTIONS The peaceful resolution of international conflicts Laws and customs for the conduct of war on land The extension of the Geneva Convention of 1864 to naval warfare

15. THE SECOND HAGUE CONFERENCE (1907) “Hostilities [between nations] must not commence without previous and explicit warning” “The territory of a neutral power is inviolable.” The use of floating mines was forbidden

16. A PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION The Court’s voluntary character Diplomatic crisis prior to 1914 NOT submitted to the process of international arbitration

17. ANTICIPATING THE WAR: THE MILITARY The public’s admiration for the Army and its leaders The fear of a devastating war Moltke “the elder”: future European war to last several years (1889) NO decisive battle

18. SOCIAL DARWINISM “We have won our position through the sharpness of our sword, not through the sharpness of our mind”

19. HOW TO PREVENT A TWO-FRONT WAR

20. BELGIUM NEUTRALITY: AN “UNIMPORTANT OBSTACLE” The Treaty of London (1839): Belgium neutrality guaranteed in perpetuity

21. THE SCHLIEFFEN PLAN Impossible to manage and supply an army of millions for a long time = the need to win through a series of decisive military engagements

22. THE RESERVES Schlieffen: the use of reserve units in the front line against prevailing military doctrine to achieve superiority in numbers The French officer corps: “Les réserves, c’est zéro”!!!

23. THE FRENCH PLAN XVII

24. OFFENSIVE TO THE LIMIT 1913 Field Regulations: “The French Army, returning to its tradition, henceforth admits no law but the offensive”

25. “That blind and imbecile attachment to the most visible of all colors”

26. AN OFFENSIVE-MINDED COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF No need for ‘defensive-minded’ officers in the French army General Joffre

27. RENEWING WITH TRADITION: THE FURIA FRANCESE Colonel de Grandmaison: a defensive strategy = moral inferiority leading to defeat Correct assessment but… 30 years too soon!!! Offensive to the limit vs. machine-guns and heavy artillery

28. THE GERMANS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES “Big Bertha” (1911)

29. THE RUSSIAN STEAM ROLLER The threat of the Russian steam roller on Germany’s eastern frontier

30. RUSSIA’S MILITARY DEFFECTS Russia’s railways inadequate Inability to produce enough artillery shells and riffle cartridges Poor intelligence Poor organization & planning Promotion of officers through patronage

31. ANTICIPATING A WAR: PUBLIC OPINIONS European public opinions rejected the idea of war UNLESS The nation’s interests were to be threatened FATALISM

32. ‘Germany and the Next War’ (1911) War is a ‘biological necessity’ Germany must strike the first blow: France must be completely crushed General von Bernhardi

33. GERMAN PUBLIC OPINION AND THE BALKAN WARS INEVITABLE confrontation between Germanic and Slavic peoples The Russian menace over Germany Russian rearmament + investments in a strategic network of railways = the Schlieffen Plan threatened The idea of a PREVENTIVE WAR

34. FRENCH PUBLIC OPINION: NO TO WAR The loss of Alsace-Lorraine in 1871 NOT a cause for war with Germany Legislative elections (May 1914): progression of the Socialists

35. RUSSIA: URBAN vs. RURAL PUBLIC OPINIONS Great enthusiasm in cities at the news of the German declaration of war (August 1) Saint-Petersburg renamed Petrograd The rural majority overwhelmingly ignorant or indifferent

36. GREAT BRITAIN: PACIFISM + INDIFFERENCE British public opinion preoccupied with internal crises Constitutional crisis over the powers of the House of Lords Widespread strikes + the suffragettes movement The question of Home Rule in Ireland

37. BRITISH PACIFISM Plans to commemorate the battle of Waterloo in 1915: one hundred years of peace 1912: a new magazine, The Peacemaker, to celebrate Anglo-German friendship

38. A GENERAL WAR IMPOSSIBLE? The Great Illusion by Norman Angell (1910): economic interdependence of nations = war is unprofitable A 20th century war would be on such a scale to make war ‘unthinkable’

39. EUROPE IN 1914 Fatalism BUT public opinions against the idea of war Less diplomatic tensions following the end of the second Balkan war The Sarajevo assassination: the spark