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Plans at USAM/CNMCA

This project aims to develop a probabilistic forecast system for short-term predictions, focusing on convective scale motions. It emphasizes unified approaches to data assimilation and probabilistic forecasts, utilizing deterministic and probabilistic models along with advanced physics for short-range forecasts. Plans include implementation of ECMWF products, COSMO-ME & HRM models, and a Mediterranean Wave Model. The project also involves integrating the RTOVS 8 package to simulate AMSU and MW sensors for enhanced forecasting accuracy within the Mediterranean region.

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Plans at USAM/CNMCA

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  1. Plans at USAM/CNMCA Massimo FERRI 9th COSMO General Meeting

  2. VISION • Need to develop probabilistic forecast-system for the short term and (if affordable) the very short term forecast range. • Need to continue the development of models capable to properly resolve and initiate the convective scale motions to be implemented operationally in the very short term forecast range. • The unified approach to the problems of data assimilation and probabilistic forecast should be pursued.

  3. 2011 Model Deterministic Probabilistic Data assimilation Physics Ext. Short Range Use of ECMWF products - - - - Short Range COSMO-ME & HRM (probabilistic) 7 km/50 levels (14 km./50 levels) 20 members (HRM) Hybrid 3d-var + ETKF Very Short Range Relocatable & on demand COSMO-xx 2.8 km/60 levels - Nudging UTCS MID-TERM PLANS

  4. Exploitation of COSMO Model • Implementation of a Mediterranean Wave Model driven by COSMO-ME • In the framework of HSAF it will be implemented the RTOVS 8 package in order to simulate AMSU and MW sensors.

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