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The International MANPADS Scenario

The International MANPADS Scenario. SA-14 fired at DHL cargo plane near Baghdad airport, November 2003. The MANPADS Threat.

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The International MANPADS Scenario

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  1. The International MANPADS Scenario

  2. SA-14 fired at DHL cargo plane near Baghdad airport, November 2003 The MANPADS Threat

  3. A manpad used against an airliner is not a hit-to-kill weapon; it is more like a launch-to-scare weapon…There isn't a current and qualified airline crew that could not handle an inflight emergency regarding any...hit by a manpad.- Letter to the Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology

  4. Launch to Scare? DHL A300 hit by a MANPADS near Baghdad International Airport, Nov. 2003

  5. MANPADS Proliferation Source: Defense Intelligence Agency

  6. 1000s acquired by non-state actors 1996-2001: acquistion by NSAs 14 confirmed, 27 reported FAS Study: illicit MANPADS activity in at least 17 countries (mid-2001-mid-2007) MANPADS Proliferation – Non-Govt

  7. Countries in which MANPADS were transferred to, used by, seized from, or stockpiled by non-state actors (mid-2001 to mid-2007) Iraq Russia Georgia Lebanon France Colombia Liberia Tajikistan Afghanistan Chad Nicaragua Saudi Arabia Sudan Somalia Sri Lanka Uganda Kenya

  8. MANPADS in Iraq • Hundreds, possibly thousands, of MANPADS outside of government control • Sources: Saddam’s stockpiles, external One of 188 SA-7 missiles turned in by an Iraqi Civilian in October 2003

  9. MANPADS in Iraq British Lynx helicopter hit by a MANPADS near Basra, 6 May 2006

  10. Recent Reports • 100 Igla missiles “available immediately” to Viktor Bout • 30 “shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles” found in arms cache near Gaza. SA-18 Igla SA-16 Igla-1

  11. Conclusion • MANPADS pose threat to all aircraft, although some are more vulnerable than others • MANPADS have proliferated widely, including to many non-state groups • Terrorists and insurgents worldwide continue to acquire and use MANPADS

  12. Questions?

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