Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

1. Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga

2. Climate Change and Farming Systems High level of interest from contributed papers & posters to CCRSPI conference Survey for Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network (PIARN) GRDC review of grains RD&E – referred to “farming systems” 94 times

3. The study of farming systems in Australia has benefited from… Hard systems thinking from ecology Hard systems thinking from management science and operations research Soft systems thinking from sociology

4. Different views of climate change and farming systems • a biophysical ecosystem processing materials, • a business or production system generating income, • a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

5. Climate is central to understanding of natural and managed systems Nemani et al 2003 Science (6 June 03)

6. Ryan et al 2010

7. Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.

9. Research on farming systems • Level of study(farming systems)

10. Passioura 1979 • Meaning n+1(Landscapes & communities) • Level of study(farming systems) • Explanation n-1 (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

11. Minnipa Orroroo Increasing farm size changing rural communities

13. Passioura 1979 • Meaning(Landscapes & communities) • Level of study(farming systems) • Explanation (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

14. Five Questions at the farming systems level 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region? 2) What are the impacts of these changes? 3) What can be done to adapt ? 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm CCRSPI 2008

15. 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region? Predictions are not instructions that people simply follow to make better decisions. They are pieces of an intricate puzzle that may sometimes contribute to improved decisions. Daniel Sarewitz. Nature 463: 2010 Learn from failure of predicting earthquakes (robust buildings) as well as success of predicting cyclones.

17. Nurioopta Eden Valley N Lyndoch

18. Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline

20. April to October rainfall

21. April to October rainfall

22. April to October rainfall

24. Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Temporal analogues – eg drought Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline

25. Ryan et al 2010

26. Five Questions at the farming systems level 2) What are the impacts of these changes? The same climate state can have very different impacts. Light soils vs heavy soils, sheep vs livestock, olives vs citrus.

27. Garnault: costs of climate change • Type 1 – Direct costs –lower crop yield • Type 2 – Indirect costs (eg tourism) – impact of dropping break crops • Type 3 – Risk & insurance costs – not sowing due to fear of heat event • Type 4 – Non market impacts – (eg species loss), changes to rural communities, food sovereignty.

28. Five Questions at the farming systems level 3) What can be done to adapt ? Martin and Parry (1988) – stop just doing impact studies Beyond the damage report Recognise just how adaptive Australian agriculture – especially as measured by decades

29. The challenge of “additionality” in adaptation.

30. Howden et al 2010

31. Sep 2000

32. Sep 2002

33. Sep 2006

34. Five Questions at the farming systems level 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region? 2) What are the impacts of these changes? 3) What can be done to adapt ? 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm

35. Garnaut 2010 (Aust J Ag & Res Ec) • Agriculture will suffer from unmitigated climate change • like the Australian economy as a whole, but more so, agriculture would be likely to face significant costs that were not balanced by benefits in the early stages of an Australian mitigation regime.

36. Different views of climate change and farming systems • a biophysical ecosystem processing materials, • a business or production system generating income, • a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

37. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?

38. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

39. Weather – Season – Climate change • We cannot reliably remember climate because memory generates meaning—not statistics…. our lives lurch between expectation and event, between the idea of climate and the reality of weather. Sherratt (2005)