Climate change and food systems

1. Climate change and food systems Hayes Conference Centre, Derby 1 October 2012

2. What is the state of food systems in poor countries? • Food systems are unstable, do not provide access and availability to appropriate food necessary for an active and healthy life • Why? Extreme underinvestment in food production, processing, distribution: Africa net importer • Land tenure insecurity = facilitating land grabs, up to 10% in Ethiopia, Sudan • Land degradation: Soil nutrient depletion, erosion, desertification, deforestation (2/3rds cropland by 2025) • Rain-fed agricultural systems – 60-80% of livelihoods = droughts/floods food losses • Climate change an ADDITIONAL risk

3. Impacts of GHG warming on weather patterns - IPCC

4. Impact of these changes on food systems: Africa • Production: 50% decrease in crop yield, by 2080 5%-8% (60-90mh) increase in arid and semi-arid areas, shorter growing season, increased frequency of droughts, floods, cyclones, new animal and plant pests and diseases • Processing/distribution: storage and transport infrastructure regularly destroyed by extreme weather events • Consumption: Reduced intake of non-adapted staples (maize) = substitute with imports, or more locally adapted orphan crops, small livestock

5. Specific livelihoods groups at risk Between 60% and 80% of all Africans derive most of their livelihoods from small-scale agricultural activity • Small-scale rain-fed crop farmers • Pastoralists: East and Horn of Africa, Sahel • Fishing communities: coastal and inland • Forest dwellers: Central Africa • Urban and rural poorest: Net food consumers: 70% income on food

6. Example of shifts in Zimbabwe • More heavy rainfall events, tropical cyclones, mid-season dry spells • Semi-arid areas are expanding: less moisture for farming • Ecosystems are shifting: grasslands are turning into savannah/bush: less grazing for livestock • Projected 50% decline in maize yields by 2020

7. Increased incidence of food crises • Weather and climate change have always impacted on food systems and food security, BUT • In 2000s, weather related disasters average 500/year, compared to 180/year in 1980s (Oxfam) • In Africa, Southern Africa, East/Horn and Sahel food crises almost every 2/3 years since the mid-1990s • Due to underlying vulnerability of food system, BUT increased frequency of droughts means no time to replace lost assets (livestock/income/infrastructure) = chronic hunger and malnutrition

8. Adapting food systems to climate change Adaptation: Learning to manage new risks, strengthening resilience (bounce back) in the face of change • Disaster Risk Reduction: Community practices and behaviours that are based on participatory vulnerability and capacity assessments, intended to protect food supplies, assets and livelihoods in face of uncertain weather events, local weather information • ASKT: to cope with increasing soil salinity, decreasing moisture, and new pests and diseases, topsoil degradation, reduction in grazelands • Public support: increase support for s-holder food production in public budgets (including donors, international funds), voice and capacity of food producers to engage in markets IN A CLIMATE RESILIENT WAY (infrastructure, subsidies, incentives, extension) • Ecosystem protection: Enhance biodiversity, tree planting, prevent land degradation

9. False solutions?