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North (West) Australian Climate Change Study (NACCS)

North (West) Australian Climate Change Study (NACCS). Stan Stroud Woodside Energy Ltd & Bruce Buckley Weatherman P/L Perth Western Australia April 2007. 10^-4 Waves Study Model – Sub-Regions. NRA. LNG Berth. Barrow Is. TC Olivia April 1996. TC Monica: April 2006.

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North (West) Australian Climate Change Study (NACCS)

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  1. North (West) Australian Climate Change Study (NACCS) Stan Stroud Woodside Energy Ltd & Bruce Buckley Weatherman P/L Perth Western Australia April 2007

  2. 10^-4 Waves Study Model – Sub-Regions

  3. NRA LNG Berth Barrow Is. TC Olivia April 1996

  4. TC Monica: April 2006 • Latest Cat 5 in Australia • Most intense Australian TC 896 hPa • Most intense TC in “Northern Territory”

  5. Historical Storm Tracks 1970 – 2000 NW Australia

  6. SST - Three Regions NW Australia

  7. NW Australia Region G West Timor Sea(S Stroud Oct 2006)

  8. SST -- Western Timor Sea (), -- Scott Reef () and -- North Rankin (Yellow).

  9. Storm Occurrence Cat 1 -5 NW Australia

  10. WEL DB - NW Australia - Storm Mix

  11. NACCS • Why?

  12. Primary Reasons for Study - NW Australia • Return period wave and crest heights in the future (to 2060), so that the risk can be managed • Future air temperatures (and RH) required for LNG processing plants.

  13. Secondary Reasons for the Study • Historical database period is • very short (1970 -2006), • It is poor quality, subject to historical observational deficiencies, no aircraft penetrations • create an independent database of TCs (1970 – 2060) for the existing climate, untainted by storm track measurement deficiencies • There is a problem in the Timor Sea where there is a dearth of storms, NACCS will generated alternative storm track sets, and allow a check on the 10^-4 WS tracks

  14. Study Method • Generate tropical cyclone storm tracks, wind-fields and meteorological parameters • Control Period 1970 – 1999 • Historical tracks • Modelled tracks • Comparisons (numbers, track properties) • Control Period 2000 – 2059 • Enhanced Greenhouse 2000 – 2059

  15. Bruce Buckley • Computing and data extraction OU • Data analysis and comparisons Perth

  16. Burrup: Yearly Temperature NACCS Climate Change Scenario

  17. Ensemble TC Numbers - Decadal TrendsControl (Present Climate)

  18. Ensemble TC Numbers - Decadal TrendsGreenhouse (Future Climate)

  19. Historical (left)andModelled (right)TC Tracks1970 – 1999 All Months Cat 1 - 5

  20. HistoricalandModelledTC Tracks1970 – 1990 All Months Cat 3 - 5

  21. Statistical Comparisons • Storm Starting Positions (<996 hPa) • Storm Occurrence • Cat 1 – 5 • Cat 3 – 5 • Conclusion • Learing Points • Application to GoM

  22. Storm Starting Positions (Month) 1970 – 1999Blue HistoricalRed Modelled Cat 1 - 5

  23. Storm Starting Positions (Month) 1970 – 1999Blue HistoricalRed Modelled Cat 3 - 5

  24. Number of Storm Occurrences in 2 x 2 Deg Marsden Squares 1970 -1999 Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Climate Model

  25. Number of Storm Occurrences in 2 x 2 Deg Marsden Squares 1970 -1999 Cat 3 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Climate Model

  26. Historical andModelledTC Tracks1970 – 1990 Jan Cat 1 - 5

  27. Minimum CP (deficit) 1970 – 1999 Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  28. Max Wind Speed Distribution atMin CP 1970 - 1999 Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  29. Forward Speed Speed Distribution atMin CP 1970 – 1999 Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  30. Forward Dirn. at Min CP 1970 – 1999 Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  31. Storm Age at Min CP 1970 – 1999 Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  32. Occurrence v Min CP 1970 – 1999 Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  33. North Rankin A 1970 – 1999Distributions 300 km Radius Cat 1 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  34. North Rankin A 1970 – 1999Distributions 300 km Radius Cat 3 - 5Blue HistoricalRed Modelled

  35. Application to the GoM • NW Australia, TCs form in the Monsoon, and region is bounded on two sides by land, with one open boundary • Leslie has said it is reasonable easy to get the correct number of TCs off NW Australia • In contrast the Atlantic is more difficult

  36. 10^-4 waves Study Model – sub-regions

  37. Problems in the Gulf How much is due to Climate Variability? • How much is due to Climate Change? • What is the reality with the present arguments about storm track quality? • Are the actual storm numbers in the Atlantic and the Gulf increasing as Holland says? • Can probably be sorted out using climate modelling

  38. Application to the GoM • Hurricanes are formed in the East African wave, more difficult than NW Australia. • The storm tracks across the Atlantic are longer than those off NW Australia, more chance for them to gather errors as they traverse the Atlantic • Storm tracks near the east coast of US, many turn to the North, the model must do this accurately • Storms traversing Florida and Cuba must represent reality in terms of energy • Storms in the Gulf must intensify correctly • Storms in the Gulf must intensify correctly over the Loop Current • Storms in the Gulf must reflect the statistical properties of the historical storms

  39. The End Wish to thank Prof. Lance Leslie for his tremendous effort.

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