Collaborative Strategic Foresight (hand-outs)

1. Collaborative Strategic Foresight(hand-outs) Sandra Romenska Beyond Distance Research Alliance University of Leicester, UK

2. Overview • Learning futures is a foresight methodology – it helps make sense of an uncertain future. • The focus is on making informed decisions. • The focus is on making democratic decisions. Salmon & Romenska

3. Rationales for Learning Futures 1 • The world is more complex than that envisaged when many of our institutions emerged. These institutions are faced with major new challenges and pressures. • It is tough to be a leader in a time of such uncertainty. • Decisions made today will have effects years into the future. What will the world look like then? Salmon & Romenska

4. Rationales for Learning Futures 2 To motivate change. To guide choices. To generate a vision and an action-plan for realisation. Salmon & Romenska

5. To sharpen the capacity to deal with the unexpected. To improve decision-making. To understand trends in the context of their influence on an individual, organisation, business sector or region. To detect emergence of new opportunities and to create strategies for achieving goals. Rationales for Learning Futures 3 Salmon & Romenska

6. Key Assumptions for Learning Futures • The future is not pre-determined or predictable. • If it were, there would be no point in taking action today, because it would have no effect on the future. • Full information about the future is never available. • It makes sense to look for ways to understand the future to deal with uncertainty. Salmon & Romenska

7. What is Foresight? • Foresight is a way of thinking about the future which allows users to: • free up their thinking beyond the here and now; • explore plausible futures (ie always more than one, because “the” future is not pre-determined); and • think about implications for decision making today.

8. “A rapidly growing number of recent studies show that imagining the future depends on much of the same neural machinery that is needed for remembering the past. These findings have led to the concept of the prospective brain; an idea that a crucial function of the brain is to use stored information to imagine, simulate and predict possible future events.” D. L. Schacter, D. R. Addis, R. L. Buckner (2007) Remembering the past to imagine the future: the prospective brain, Nature Reviews Neuroscience, Vol.8, 657 (2007)

9. “Neuroimaging studies reveal that both the prefrontal cortex and the medial temporal lobes are strongly activated by prospection. Interestingly, these regions are part of the “default network” that is active when people are not specifically engaged in other tasks, which suggests that when the mind is not busy perceiving the present it tends to simulate the future. The critical role played by frontal regions suggests that few if any other animals are able to simulate future events, and even our closest relatives in the animal kingdom may be “stuck in time”.” Gilbert, D. T., &Wilson, T. D. (2007). Prospection: experiencing the future. Science, 317, 1351–4.

10. Learning Futures Model The “Learning Futures” model structures the pro-active application of analytical and creative skills and tools for generating ideas about the future of individuals, educational institutions or practices. As a result a shared understanding emerges of what may happen in the future of teaching and learning, and a clear, shared commitment to creating a preferred future.

11. Hindsight This component encourages participants to use past information and experiences in order to reduce uncertainty regarding future decisions and actions. The knowledge stored in organisational memory helps participants to understand linkages of causality and chronology, to look behind the occurrence of specific events and look for patterns and structures that underpin their occurrence.

12. Insight The Insight component takes the form of an analysis of a broad range of issues internal to HEIs as well as an environmental scan of the present, including global, political, economic, technological, environmental and social trends. It identifies a wide range of individuals, organisations and factors which can have an effect on or be influenced by the future under consideration. Taken-for-granted assumptions are uncovered and participants discuss values and rationalities beyond their present day-to-day context.

13. Foresight The foresight component emphasises the importance of not attempting to predict, but analysing a range of possible futures. It focuses on comprehending the variety of possible future situations for learning and teaching by interweaving the layers of information uncovered in the Insight and Hindsight components, including forces that shape the future, scenarios, future opportunities, and potential trend changes.

14. Workshops • The four components were translated into workshop activities aimed at encouraging creativity, collaboration and learning. Participants engage in group exercises that include each component of the model - Hindsight, Insight, Foresight and Oversight. Participants use the internet as a resource for information on relevant issues, learn to use technologies for collaboration and learning such as wikis, Google Maps, Google Docs, word cloud applications, blogs, Second Life, Twitter, etc. The activities are guided by the facilitator to ensure that participants learn to use these tools in ways which will be relevant to their work and studies outside of the workshop and to emphasise the expectation that the scenarios will result in creative output.

15. Implications for students employability “To succeed in a chaotic environment, graduates will need to be intellectually resilient, cross-culturally and scientifically literate, technologically adept, ethically anchored, and fully prepared for a future of continuous and cross-disciplinary learning” (The National Leadership Council for Liberal Education and America's Promise, 2007, P.15) Salmon & Romenska

16. Employability skills CALF workshops can develop • Knowledge and skills necessary for developing successful strategies and future scenarios, target-setting and planning for future employment. • Improved skills for independent and group problem-solving and decision-making. • Improved self-presentation and communication skills. • Improved skills for multi-tasking, time-management and prioritising. Salmon & Romenska

17. Employability skills CALF workshops can develop • Improved skills for identifying and validating sources of information. • Improved networking and team-working skills. • Improved skills for communicating ideas effectively, using a variety of media in diverse settings, making effective presentations, including impromptu presentations. Salmon & Romenska

18. Learning Futures Methods They help understanding a situation. Engaging in Learning Futures thinking enhances creativity. They are process/activity focussed. They are built on perceptions and opinions. Salmon & Romenska

19. Learning Futures 1 • A characteristic, aptitude or process that attempts to widen the boundaries of perception by: • assessing the implications of present actions, decisions etc. • detecting and avoiding problems before they occur (early warning indicators). • considering the present implications of possible future events (proactive strategy formulation). • envisioning aspects of desired futures (normative scenarios). Salmon & Romenska

20. Learning Futures Process of connecting together various driving forces, trends, and conditioning factors so as to envisage alternative futures. Thinking about the future is something that we all do. Salmon & Romenska

21. Types of Futures • Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge) • Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge) • Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends) • Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgements) Salmon & Romenska

22. Looking back for looking forward… HINDSIGHT How has learning changed in recent years What happened to learning that you expected? What happened differently from your expectation? INSIGHT What are the current trends, enablers, disruptions and barriers? FORESIGHT How can we use this knowledge to prepare for the next 10 years? Salmon & Romenska

23. Learning Futures Approach of CALF One approach to Learning Futures is to see them as stories about how the world might look like in the future. They are descriptions in the form of a story, of possible developments that can lead from a current state of affairs to a future state. Salmon & Romenska

24. Learning Futures are stories about the future that are informed, plausible and based on analysis of the interaction of a number of factors. They are a means to represent a future state in order to understand and plan action in the present in view of possible and desirable futures. Learning Futures Approach of CALF 2 Salmon & Romenska

25. Creating a Learning Future The process of creating Learning Futures considers: A spark – issue of concern, question, problem. Occurrences Participants Environment/setting Outcomes Uncertainties Salmon & Romenska

26. Occurrences in Learning Futures • Occurrence is something done or something happening. It is an answer to the question “What is happening? What is he/she/they doing?” • Occurrences involve actors and stakeholders. Those who perform or cause the actions are actors. They answer to the question “Who?” • Those, who are affected by the actions are the stakeholders. “Whom? To whom?” Salmon & Romenska

27. Occurrences in Learning Futures An occurrence has a probability and an impact associated with it. Probability can range from 0 (not happening) to 1 (certainty) and means likelihood that something will happen. Impact is the effect – extent of change, brought about by something happening. It usually has a subject – that which is affected, upon which an occurrence has an impact. For example, a meteor hitting the planet is an occurrence with low probability but high impact. So was the crush of the financial markets or the collapse of the Soviet Union. Salmon & Romenska

28. Occurrences in Learning Futures When building a Learning Future, you can generate alternatives by considering the probability and the impact of the events you have included. Think of low probability - high impact events and how to prepare for them. Salmon & Romenska

29. Put participants in your story Participants can be: Individuals/organisations affected by an Issue. Individuals/organisations who make something happen. They have relative degrees of power and interest in bringing change. Consider groups with high power/low interest and vice versa. Salmon & Romenska

30. Dilemmas, Paradoxes, Trade-offs • Dilemma – choice between equal options. • Paradox – sequence of actions/statements, that leads to a contradiction: Example: Don't go near the water until you've learned to swim • Trade-off – situation where loosing something means gaining something. Salmon & Romenska

31. Consistency in Learning Futures Inconsistent: Actions or motivations or impacts are inconsistent and if one occurs the other cannot. Hindering: Actions or motivations or impacts are obstructing each otehr, but its not impossible that they occur at the same time. Supporting: The occurrence of one supports the occurrence of the other. Inducing: The occurrence of one induces the occurrences of the other. Salmon & Romenska

32. Tool N2www.wordle.net

33. Tool 3 Paint Click “Start” in the bottom left corner of your screen, go to All Programs, then Accessories and select Paint. After you have created a Wordle that you like, open it in a separate window, maximise it and click Alt+PrtScr (PrtScr is in the top row of keys in your keyboard). This will copy everything that you see on your screen – the Wordle. Go back to Paint and click Ctrl+V or Paste from the menu. This will paste the image of the Wordle. Save it as a jpeg file.

34. "Create a future" Google-opoly A competitive game, set up in Google Maps The participants are divided into groups and given locations on a Google Map prepared in advance. At each location on the map the participants have to solve a challenge which would give them an answer to one of the questions above, in this way gradually constructing a scenario narrative. The workshops conclude with presentations by each group of participants of their scenarios and a discussion. Participants discuss the application of digital and web technologies and possible ways in which they could change the future of learning and are encouraged to think about the likelihood of future scenarios. Salmon & Romenska

35. Tool 4 Mindmeister http://www.mindmeister.com/ Mindmeister is a free collaborative online mind-mapping tool.