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Indicators of Climate Change in Tanzania and likely impacts on social economic development

Indicators of Climate Change in Tanzania and likely impacts on social economic development. Faustine Fidelis Tilya Tanzania Meteorological Agency P O Box 3056, Dar es Salaam ftilya@meteo.go.tz. TREND ANALYSIS OF SOME CLIMATIC VARIABLES POSSIBLE CAUSES IMPACTS. Data & Methods.

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Indicators of Climate Change in Tanzania and likely impacts on social economic development

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  1. Indicators of Climate Change in Tanzania and likely impacts on social economic development Faustine Fidelis Tilya Tanzania Meteorological Agency P O Box 3056, Dar es Salaam ftilya@meteo.go.tz

  2. TREND ANALYSIS OF SOME CLIMATIC VARIABLES • POSSIBLE CAUSES • IMPACTS

  3. Data & Methods • Historical Climate data from TMA • Non-parametric Spearman rank correlation statistics to determine the direction and strength of existing relationship between variables (Lehmann and D’Abrera, 1998).

  4. Bukoba Musoma Loliondo 2 -2 1 Engare Mwanza 3 Same 4 -4 Kigoma Lushoto 7 Singida Tabora Tanga 5 11 6 -6 Dodoma Mpanda Ilonga Dar es Salaam Iringa -8 8 Sumbawanga Mahenge Mbeya 10 9 -10 Mtwara Tunduru Songea 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Rainfall homogenous zones of Tanzania

  5. Observed Spearman Rank Correlation values forMarch – May rainfall Season

  6. Reduced rainfall amounts during March-May Rainfall season

  7. Observed Frequency of Wet Spells Run during the March-May (MAM_wet) and October-December (OND_wet) Seasons at Lushoto (slopes of Usambara Mountain)

  8. Increased seasonal rainfall

  9. Observed Spearman Rank Correlation Values for theOctober – May rainfall Season

  10. Enhanced rainfall amounts during October - May Rainfall season in South Western Highlands of Tanzania

  11. Reduced Frequency of Dry Spells Run during the October – May rainfall season in South Western Highlands of Tanzania

  12. Decreasing trend of seasonal rainfall

  13. Risk of dry spells of at least 7 days at Mpanda in western Tanzania

  14. Risk of dry spells of at least 10 days at Mpanda in western Tanzania

  15. Risk of dry spells of at least 15 days at Mpanda in western Tanzania

  16. increased number of days along Tanzanian coast (Zanzibar) with winds greater than 5 meters per second

  17. Possible causes

  18. Deforestation processes

  19. Land COVER change

  20. Natural Causes February 6, 2008 - eruptive phase of Oldonyo Lengai. Plume is estimated to rise to 12 kilometres above the ground (Gerrit Jan Plaisier and Rob Alakopsa of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines) January 18 2008 eruption at the Oldonyo Lengai , North Tanzania (Phil & Celeste Benham).

  21. Green house gases (Ipcc reports 1-4) www.abcnews.com/sections/us/global106.html

  22. Impacts

  23. food insecurity and exacerbated malnutrition in Tanzania

  24. Due to escalating warming, Tanzania is experiencing outbreaks of malaria in highland areas where there is little experience with the disease. Health authorities are combining climate observations with medical research to predict highland malaria outbreaks 19%of Tanzanian health spending IS on malaria

  25. Afternoon winds are consistently stronger than morning winds which translate into enhanced production of damaging erosion capability including tidal effects especially during the period between September and December.

  26. Gross Poverty

  27. Ahsante sana

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