1 / 10

Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, and Frank Aikman III (NOS/OCS/CSDL)

Development of an Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, and Frank Aikman III (NOS/OCS/CSDL) Hendrik Tolman , Arun Chawla , and Ilya Rivin (NWS/NCEP/EMC) Arthur Taylor (NWS/MDL). ESTOFS Overview.

galvin-randolph
Download Presentation

Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, and Frank Aikman III (NOS/OCS/CSDL)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Development of an Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS)for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, and Frank Aikman III (NOS/OCS/CSDL) HendrikTolman, ArunChawla, and IlyaRivin (NWS/NCEP/EMC) Arthur Taylor (NWS/MDL)

  2. ESTOFS Overview • Purpose • Basin-wide storm surge model for coupling with coastal wave models (SWAN or WWIII) • Add tide in surge predictions • Lacking in operational Extratropical Storm Surge (ETSS) model runs • Can use tidal grids to add to forecaster-generated surge grids to generate combined field • Provide multi-model ensemble for extratropical surge forecast guidance

  3. ESTOFS Model Overview • Atlantic and Gulf coasts • Coastal resolution ≈ 3 km • Tides from global tide model • Atmospheric forcing from GFS • Winds and sea level pressure • ADCIRC finite element model • Community-based • Unstructured grid • 2D barotropic solves for water level and depth-averaged currents (no temp, salinity)

  4. Operational Set-up • Running 4 times per day to match GFS/WWIII cycle • Total 8 days simulation per cycle • 12-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast • Delivers three water level outputs • Combined Water Level (CWL): surge + tides • Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): astronomical tides • Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP • ETSS website will include ESTOFS SWL at its points • Gridded output both on native grid (NetCDF) and 5 km NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2) • NetCDF via http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid2/estofs

  5. Providing Gridded Water Level ESTOFS Atlantic grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)

  6. Providing Gridded Water Level EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)

  7. Providing Gridded Water Level EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)

  8. Status of ESTOFS transition • Running semi-operationally on cirrus via cron job • Uses scripts and code from CO-OPS’ Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) to streamline transition • Using 1 node (64 logical CPUs), cycle takes 60 mins • GFS forcing (20 min), run (25 min), process (10 min) • Skill assessment complete • 1 year hindcast (2009) • semi-operational forecast • Meeting with NCO to schedule transition

  9. Skill Assessment Combined Water Level (surge + tide)

  10. Skill Assessment ESTOFS SWL versus bias-corrected ETSS

More Related