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WEATHER BRIEF FOR TBEC 12 November 2013, Nuku’alofa ‘Ofa Fa’anunu Tonga Met Service

WEATHER BRIEF FOR TBEC 12 November 2013, Nuku’alofa ‘Ofa Fa’anunu Tonga Met Service MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE. RAINFALL. Seasonal Cycles. Seasonal Cycles. 06/02/10. Tonga Meteorological Services. 6. NIUAFOOU. NIUATOPUTAPU. VAVAU. HAAPAI. NUKU’ALOFA. NFO = ABOVE 1001MM

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WEATHER BRIEF FOR TBEC 12 November 2013, Nuku’alofa ‘Ofa Fa’anunu Tonga Met Service

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  1. WEATHER BRIEF FOR TBEC 12 November 2013, Nuku’alofa‘Ofa Fa’anunuTonga Met Service MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE

  2. RAINFALL

  3. Seasonal Cycles Seasonal Cycles 06/02/10 Tonga Meteorological Services 6

  4. NIUAFOOU NIUATOPUTAPU VAVAU HAAPAI NUKU’ALOFA NFO = ABOVE 1001MM NTT = ABOVE 864MM VAV= ABOVE 8I3MM HAP= ABOVE 580MM TBU = ABOVE 565MM

  5. TROPICAL CYCLONES

  6. What is a tropical cyclone? Tropical Cyclone= wind circulation around a centre > 34kts Warnings Wind speed Gale warning = 34-47kt Storm warning = 48-63kt Hurricane warning = >64kt 10/18/10 Tonga Meteorological Services 10

  7. 10/18/10 Tonga Meteorological Services 11

  8. 10/18/10 Tonga Meteorological Services 13

  9. Impacts and Extremes 06/02/10 Tonga Meteorological Services 14

  10. Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2013/14 • Average to Below average no of TCs expected in the SW Pacific (mod confidence); • TC risk is higher than normal for the countries west of and around the Dateline; • 4 to 8 named tropical cyclones expected this season; • Average to above average activity for Tonga

  11. Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2013/14 • Chance of getting a cyclone in Tonga this season is 114% (High). Likely 2 • Severe TC Risk for Tonga 171% (Very High); • Cyclone formation and track will most likely be from west to north quadrant

  12. TC Season for 2013/14 similar conditions to • 1981/82 - TC Isaac (Severe – C&S Tonga) • 1984/85 - TC Lance (Storm), TC Drena (Storm) both N.Tonga, TC Eric (Severe – C&S Tonga) • 1990/91 – TC Sina (Severe – C&S Tonga), TC Val (Severe – Northern Tonga) • 1996/97 – TC Hina (Severe Southern Tonga), TC Keli (June) (Severe N.Tonga) • 2001/02 – TC Waka (Severe N&C Tonga)

  13. TSUNAMI

  14. PACCSAP Project 2 natural cuts in the reef Nukualofa

  15. Sea flooding already affects Nuku’alofa from subsidence even before the tsunami arrives

  16. After modeling • Confirmed extreme tsunami risk for Tongatapu • There are wave depths of >10m in places and several km inland depending on local topography. • Nuku’alofa and eastern Tongatapu are most vulnerable. • Warning times will be very limited (10-25 minutes) • There are several small pockets of safer (higher) ground

  17. WILL NOT WORK IN A LOCAL EVENT

  18. Detecting a local tsunami • Tonga seismic network problematic (5 seismic stations) & no direct access by warning center • Earthquake data from USGS • Geological Survey Unit send an automatic message through HYDRA system (often can receive a preliminary center & magnitude quicker than PTWC) • Warning center looking to using earthquake intensity meters to measure ground shaking as an early warning indicator • Sea Level monitoring equipment to be improved through SPCR Project

  19. Current warnings 1) Urgent Tsunami Alert – Ready made and ready to go (TMS) 2) Tsunami Warning - As received by PTWC (3) Local Earthquake Bulletin – Anything above 4.5M and below 70km depth (4) PTWC international SMS direct to mobile phone

  20. Future warnings (from later 2014) 1) Urgent Tsunami Warning (ready made) 2) Tsunami Warning (when verified) (3) Local EQ Advisory (4.5 <M<7.5) <50km (4) Regional EQ Advisory (M>7.5) <50km (5) Distant EQ Advisory (6) Tsunami No threat Advisory (7) Tsunami Marine Warning

  21. Disseminating the warnings • 24hr SMS mobile alert service via 1 Telecom provider (Digicel) to selected users relevant to the warning system • Live broadcast on national radio (Radio Tonga) – national coverage (both MET and NEMO) • Activation of sirens in place • Met Service Website • Email distribution • Telefone/fax

  22. THIS ROCK IS THOUGH TO BE BROUGHT BY A TSUNAMI KALA’AU FAHEFA KALAA’U

  23. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga • When there is an earthquake find something solid and lie down next to it. Do not go underneath table or bed etc • If the earthquake is strong enough for you to loose balance, move away from the coast immediately a tsunami might be on its way in less than 15mins

  24. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga • Move inland by 1 mile and wait there. Listen to radio. If no radio then wait there for an hour • Know where you live. Be aware of high strong buildings. Even tall trees you can climb • If you are on a small island, move to the centre of the island a find a strong tree to climb

  25. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga • Be aware of what the wildlife and animals are doing. Often their senses are keener than humans • If u are at sea and you hear a tsunami warning stay out at sea, you are safe there • Do not drive when evacuation your home….WALK!!

  26. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga • Teach your family about tsunami and where to evacuate. You should not pickup your school children from school in an event of a tsunami • All tsunami are dangerous. Large or Small. Heed warnings at all times • Tsunami is not just one wave. It is a series of waves and the first is not necessarily the biggest

  27. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga • If you see the tide receding after a major earthquake..RUN!! • Do not attempt to go and see a tsunami. On level ground, when you see a tsunami is usually too late to escape

  28. MALO AUPITO

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