Nuclear Weapons and other Weapons of Mass Destruction

1. Nuclear Weapons and other Weapons of Mass Destruction Technology, Uses, Proliferation, and Control

2. Basic Facts • USA, Russia, China only states with long-range weapons (easily within grasp of France, India, UK) • A nuclear missile can be delivered anywhere in the world in under 30 minutes, less if launched from naval ships. • There is currently no defense against nuclear weapons.

3. Motivating factor for Plutonium Files Abuses Was Ostensibly Preparation for Nuclear Warfare Brief history of the development of nuclear weapons • Leo Szilard filed patent on neutron chain reaction in 1934 • Assigned patent to British admiralty in 1936 to keep it secret • Argued relentlessly for secrecy in nuclear experimentation • Einstein’s Letter to Roosevelt • Formulation of the “Uranium Committee” and $6000 • In 1942 General Leslie Groves wanted him imprisoned for • duration of war • Szilard and Enrico Fermi achieved the first sustained fission • chain reaction in Chicago in December 1942 • Birth of the Manhattan Project • First nuclear detonation, Trinity, on July 16, 1945

4. Two chief approaches to constructing a nuclear weapon Gun Assembly – U-235 (Figure by Federation of American Scientists)

5. Implosion Device PU-239 (Figure by Federation of American Scientists)

6. Countries with Nuclear Weapons (2002) Country Number Year of first test United States 10,240 1945 Russia 8,400 1949 China 390 1964 France 350 1960 United Kingdom 200 1952 India 60-90 1974 Pakistan 24-48 1998 Israel 100 ? North Korea ? ? Ukraine 200+ Soviet Union

7. Nuclear weapons produce a fireball at the core of the explosion that simply melts many objects, including people. Further out from the explosion shock waves topple other structures and objects Radiation is spread even further out for miles depending on size of bomb.

8. Uses of Nuclear Weapons? • Battlefield Weapons? • WWII (A-Bombs on Japan) • NUTS (Nuclear Utilization Targeting Strategy) • NUTS also loosely known as “war fighting” • Oddly enough, usually Republicans have argued for this (Eisenhower, Reagan, George W. Bush) • Strategic Deterrence? • MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) • Terrorism? • Rogue nuclear weapons (state sponsored?) • Dirty Bombs

9. USA Nuclear Triangular Technology-Strategy

10. As Battlefield Weapons • Must be used tactically • Thus must be small • Counter-force targeting – target enemy military • Problem: what if enemy has them too? If so then tactical uses may escalate to strategic and open Pandora’s Box – the war may spin out of control. • Basic Taboo may have blocked this type of use, but we do not know and future may show there is no Taboo.

11. Strategic Nuclear Strategy • If have clear superiority, then “First-Strike” may be possible, which would take out other sides retaliatory capability and absorb “acceptable” loses. • If two opposing states have significant retaliatory capabilities, these are “second strike capabilities” – the ability to absorb a nuclear strike and punish the other side with unacceptable casualties.

12. A policy of MAD necessitates second strike capabilities, which the USA and USSR possessed most of Cold War. • Deterrence by punishment – counter-value targeting. • Logic is that rational thing to do is not launch any weapons, because neither side could win the war. • Counter-intuitive finding though is peace through strength – lots of nukes may have aided US and USSR security

13. MAD relies on Deterrence • Must have capabilities • Must have credible threat • Resolve to follow through • Reputation for following through • Clear Signals and Perceptions • Risk and uncertainty must be manipulated, such as sharing risk in brinksmanship or games of chicken.

14. Today, India and Pakistan do not have second-strike capabilities, which means their situation is very dangerous. Why? Similar situation to WWI, where first to mobilize and strike the enemy may earn huge battlefield advantage, which means India and Pakistan may have itchy trigger fingers if a crisis escalates to war. Even worse, if Pakistan begins to lose a conventional war, they may very well turn to nukes.

15. Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems?? • Attempts go back to the late 1950s – none yet shown to be reliable or cost-effective. • A system was put in place (missile vs. missile) in early 1960s, but not seen as workable. Yet, threat of system lead to ABM Treaty with Soviets in 1972. Both superpowers saw MAD as stable and best option out of undesirable alternatives, with the exception of … • 1983, Pres. Reagan calls for Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI, “Star Wars” system, non-stop research since but many, many failures, including many falsified tests. Good example of “Iron Triangle” problem of military-industrial complex.

16. President George W. Bush let the ABM Treaty lapse. Implications? • If successful, puts US in position of First Strike Capability, but any workable system in near future would not change balance of power in the world except against China. • Thus, any country that fears US nuclear threat has higher incentive to build even more weapons, otherwise the ultimate security dilemma ensues where states are vulnerable to nuclear black-mail.

17. THAAD and Patriot Missile systems are most realistic and useful technology to come from four decades of research. The Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) appears feasible but not yet deployed, but is only useful for tactical purposes in a small area to protect troops in field, smaller cities, etc.

18. Problems of ABM systems • Highly unreliable to date • Extremely expensive technology • Even worse, Counter-measures extremely cheap compared to most any ABM system. • Must be dramatically precise considering consequences of failure. • Invites preemptive attack to take out ABM system in time of crisis. • Can’t provide defense against large-scale nuclear attack. Thus, maybe N. Korea might be deterred, but not Russia or in a few years China.

19. Chemical Weapons • Includes: Mustard Gas, Risin, Sarin, VX, cyanide, etc. • http://cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/ • Chemical weapons date back to WWI • Used in Ethiopia (Italians), China (Japan), Iran and against Kurds (Iraq) • Today Chemical weapons are Poor Countries WMD • USA is destroying its stocks • Mostly effective on battlefield in small area, but not easily controlled because of wind direction. • Some use to terrorists in confined, crowded locations, such as Tokyo subway attack with Sarin by Japanese fringe group, Aum Shinrikyo cult, in 1994 and 1995.

20. Biological Weapons • Very dangerous as a weapon • Based on organic diseases such as anthrax, cholera, plague, etc. • Goal is a contagion effect where disease is spread to enemy person to person after initial exposure. The “attack that keeps on giving.” • May not know right away there even was an attack. • See: http://www.pugwash.org/reports/cbw/cbw5.htm

21. Biological Weapons contd. • Not too difficult to create in the laboratory • However, very difficult to deliver as weapons. The biological agents need to be combined with other substances to remain active when exposed to air or other elements. • It was unclear whether Iraq had the ability to use germ warfare. • USA and USSR had (has) stocks of both chemical and biological weapons.

22. Past uses of Biological Weapons?? • Japan mass produced biological bombs with cholera and the plague. These weapons were used against China as punishment for aiding the Doolittle Raids by USA. • Was planning to use them against an American invasion of the Japanese Islands. They were also developing long-range bombers to possibly bomb the west coast of the USA if war lasted longer.

23. Other Uses ??? • USSR may have used such weapons in Afghanistan to poison certain water sources and villages known to be actively resisting their forces. • These were also alleged to have been used in Cambodia and Laos by either Vietnam or with help of USSR, but no solid proof.

24. The Proliferation of WMD Good or bad, and if bad how do we stop it?

25. Is Proliferation of WMD Good? • Deterrence works – threat of horrible wars will produce stability in order to avoid escalation. • Balance of Terror equalizes power discrepancies between countries – even major military powers now cannot push around any country at will.

26. Is proliferation WMD bad? • Worse wars if deterrence fails • Accidents, especially in poor countries • Great powers like USA weakened • Sub-national proliferation – such as terrorists • MAD unlikely?? • Arms races • Dangerous transition periods invite preemption by enemies

27. Stopping Proliferation of WMD • Export Controls of technology • Bargaining – N. Korea for example • Sanctions – Iraq, Pakistan, etc. • Hire foreign scientists (Russian, etc.) • Military intervention (Iraq, N. Korea??) • Global Disarmament (reduce prestige factor) • Solve underlying security problems so there is less world tension. • International Treaties: NPT (1968); Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (1996); l972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1975.

28. Are you optimistic that any of these measures can work? None has shown to be very successful yet. However, combination of export controls with international law may be best bet. Flaws: International law is in the end voluntary and export controls require states to be responsible and carefully watch the companies working inside their boundaries.