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Class 5a: Population II

Explore the future predictions of population growth and urbanization, comparing the theories of Malthus and Boserup. Learn about the demographic transition and the impact of urbanization on world cities like Delhi. Discover how technological advancements and social factors will shape the future population, while addressing the challenges of overcrowding, food security, and infrastructure.

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Class 5a: Population II

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  1. Class 5a: Population II • Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup • The demographic transition • Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)

  2. Future population • Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increase

  3. Future population • Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increase

  4. Future population: Thomas Malthus • Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) • Observing the Industrial Revolution • Food is necessary for human existence • "The passion between the sexes is necessary and constant"

  5. Future population: Malthus • Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically

  6. Future population: Malthus • Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically

  7. Future population: Malthus • Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically • Therefore, the human population will self-regulate by means of famine • Ecological view of humanity

  8. Demographic transition • Shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates

  9. Demographic transition • Stage 1: pre-industrial • High birth rate; high, fluctuating death rate

  10. Demographic transition • Stage 2: industrial • Birth rate stays high • Death rate drops with better living conditions

  11. Demographic transition • Stage 3: urbanized • Birth rate drops; death rate stays low • Growth begins to taper off

  12. Future population: Ester Boserup • Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965) • Technological improvements keep food production ahead of population • "Overpopulation" actually drives agricultural improvement • Social scientists’ view of humanity

  13. Future population • Increasing emphasis on quality of life • Reproductive health care • Women’s rights and development

  14. Urbanization • Just under half world population • But most growth is in cities • Overcrowding, food security, health

  15. Urbanization • Historically follows industrialization • Industrial Revolution: Europe from 12% to 36% • 1850-1910, North America from 16% to 40%

  16. Urbanization • 1950-1990, Third World from 17% to 37% • Most rapid in history • But without economic growth • And without urban decentralization

  17. Urbanization: megacities • Population over 10 million • Disproportionately large economic activity • From 5 in 1970 to 26 in 2015 • Strong income disparities • Environmental and health problems • Lack of infrastructure

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