Pulse of the Planet Series Dr. David A. Robinson Chair, Department of Geography &

1. Understanding and Predicting Coastal Storms Pulse of the Planet Series Dr. David A. RobinsonChair, Department of Geography & New Jersey State ClimatologistRutgers University September 22, 2007Liberty Science Center Atlantic City 1944

2. This Morning's Agenda1. A state climatologist? 2. Two flavors of coastal storms Tropical storms & hurricanes Mid-latitude lows (aka: Nor'easters) 3. Memorable Jersey "visits"4. Predicting storms: present and future5. Keeping a watchful eye on Jersey weather

3. Before learning of this presentation, did you know that NJ had a state climate office at Rutgers? A) Yes, I’m a weather/climate enthusiast. B) Yes, whether I wanted to or not! C) No, wish I had known earlier. D) No, and I was much the better for it!

4. Office of the NJ State ClimatologistOur mission: Monitor Understand Inform http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim

5. Recognizing that climate impacts life in NJ • Agriculture/horticulture • Ecology • Water resources • Public health & safety • Energy • Transportation • Commerce

6. This Morning's Agenda1. A state climatologist? 2.Two flavors of coastal storms Tropical storms & hurricanes Mid-latitude lows (aka: Nor'easters) 3. Memorable Jersey "visits"4. Predicting storms: present and future5. Keeping a watchful eye on Jersey weather

7. In which direction do winds circulate around a Northern Hemisphere low pressure system? A) Clockwise B) Counter clockwise

8. In which direction do winds circulate around a Northern Hemisphere low pressure system? B) Counter clockwise

9. Storms redistribute heat and moisture from low to high latitudes

10. This Morning's Agenda1. A state climatologist? 2. Two flavors of coastal storms Tropical storms & hurricanes Mid-latitude lows (aka: Nor'easters) 3. Memorable Jersey "visits"4. Predicting storms: present and future5. Keeping a watchful eye on Jersey weather

11. Rating Tropical Storms & Hurricanes

12. Which type of storm feeds off of cold and warm air clashing? A) Tropical storm B) Mid-latitude low pressure system C) Both of the above storms

13. Which type of storm feeds off of cold and warm air clashing? B) Mid-latitude low pressure system

14. Conditions Necessary for Tropical Storm Formation • Warm water: in excess of 27oC (81oF) • Unstable atmosphere…..to a point

15. Tropical cyclone structure

16. The Atlantic tropical storm season runs from…. A) August - September B) June - November C) July - September D) January 1 – December 31

17. The Atlantic tropical storm season runs from…. B) June - November

18. Tropical storm genesis areas and related storm tracks

19. The Atlantic Basin

20. How often does a hurricane make landfall (eye comes ashore) in New Jersey? A) Every year B) Once a decade C) About once a century D) Never

21. How often does a hurricane make landfall (eye comes ashore) in New Jersey? C) About once a century

24. A hurricane is approaching NJ. What is your greatest concern? A) River flooding B) Storm surge C) Damaging wind

25. A Solution to Many a US Hurricane Concern!

26. This Morning's Agenda1. A state climatologist? 2. Two flavors of coastal storms Tropical storms & hurricanesMid-latitude lows (aka: Nor'easters)3. Memorable Jersey "visits"4. Predicting storms: present and future5. Keeping a watchful eye on Jersey weather

27. Conditions Necessary for Mid-latitude Low Formation • Convergence of warm and cold air • Unstable atmosphere….top to bottom

28. The big picture: a NJ squeeze play

30. Cyclogenesis

31. A mature mid-latitude cyclone

32. Typical winter mid-latitude cyclone paths

33. This Morning's Agenda1. A state climatologist? 2. Two flavors of coastal storms Tropical storms & hurricanes Mid-latitude lows (aka: Nor'easters) 3.Memorable Jersey "visits"4. Predicting storms: present and future5. Keeping a watchful eye on Jersey weather

34. The Blizzard of 1888 Derailment at Whitehall

35. Nor'easter of 1889, Long Branch

36. Asbury Park: 1890s

37. 1944 Hurricane Atlantic City Harvey Cedars Asbury Park

38. Great Appalachian Storm: November 1950 Bloomfield Keansburg

39. Nor'easter: March 1962 Harvey Cedars

40. Ocean City Nor'easter:March 1962 LBI Wildwood

41. Nor'easter: December 1992 Brant Beach Long Branch

42. Hurricane Floyd: September 16, 1999

43. Floyd

44. "Stealth Nor’easter": February 11-12, 2006

45. Nor'easter April 15-16, 2007 Bound Brook Manville

46. This Morning's Agenda1. A state climatologist? 2. Two flavors of coastal storms Tropical storms & hurricanes Mid-latitude lows (aka: Nor'easters) 3. Memorable Jersey "visits"4. Predicting storms: present and future5. Keeping a watchful eye on Jersey weather

47. potential flooding and damage to property given a hurricane's estimated intensity: Hurricane tracks for the year prior, during and after an El Nino

48. Storms of all types have become worse in NJ over the past decade or two. A) True B) False C) The jury is out

49. Storms of all types have become worse in NJ over the past decade or two. C) The jury is out

50. This Morning's Agenda1. A state climatologist? 2. Two flavors of coastal storms Tropical storms & hurricanes Mid-latitude lows (aka: Nor'easters) 3. Memorable Jersey "visits"4. Predicting storms: present and future5. Keeping a watchful eye on Jersey weather