SADC Food Security Update: September 2011

1. SADC Food Security Update: September 2011 Overview of the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the SADC Region

2. Overview of the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the SADC Region • Outline • Overview • 2010/11 rainfall season • Cereal production • Livestock production • Fish production • Staple food prices • Vulnerability assessment methodology • Findings of 2011 vulnerability assessments • Conclusions • Recommendations

3. Overview of the 2010/11 Rainfall Season • Below normal rainfall in the northern areas, particularly northern Tanzania • Above normal rainfall in the south-eastern parts of the region 1 Oct-31 Dec 2010 1 Jan-31 Mar 2011 • Above-normal rains in southern Angola and northern Namibia, Zambia and Lesotho • Below normal rain in southern Malawi southern and central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, northern Zambia

4. Overview of the 2010/11 Rainfall Season cont. Overall: normal to above normal rainfall in most parts in the region Specifically: • Late start of the season in many parts of the Southern Area • Prolonged dry spell in February 2011 in Eastern and Central parts of the region resulting in yield losses (e.g. Southern Malawi, parts of South and Central Mozambique, Southern Zimbabwe, Swaziland and central South Africa • Excessive rains in the second half of the seasons in Southern Angola Lesotho, South Africa and Northern Namibia resulting in significant flooding, yield reduction due to leaching, water logging and infrastructure damage

5. Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Cereal production

6. Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Cereal production • Cereal production drops experienced in 5 countries - Angola, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Tanzania in 2011 compared to 2010. • Cereal production increases experienced in 6 countries - Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. • At SADC regional level, cereal production drops by 5% between 2010 and 2011. • Despite the drop, the Region continues to depict a rising trend in cereal production as shown in the graph below.

7. Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Crop production

8. Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Crop production cont... • Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia have also produced significant quantities of non cereal crops including roots and tuber crops, bananas, plantains and pulses. • Increases in cereal production in most Member States not adequate to meet domestic requirements. • Only two countries (Zambia and Malawi) recorded cereal surpluses. • Including roots and tuber crops Tanzania also has a food production surplus. • About 5 million MT cereal deficit recorded at regional level.

9. Consolidated Cereal Balance sheet

10. Maize prices at Global and Regional level • Globally – Rising maize and wheat prices • SADC – Relatively stable maize prices due to cereal surpluses experienced in the previous season. • Prices likely to rise later in the season due to the deficit

11. International prices of wheat and maize rising USDA planting and stocks figures • Political Tensions • Oil price surge • Depreciation of the US dollar • Winter wheat – uncertain growing conditions in US & China (dry-weather) USDA Production Cut Source: FAO GIEWS, 2011

12. SADC – Relatively stable maize prices Main harvest Main harvest Main harvest USD/KG Source: FAO GIEWS, 2011

13. Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Livestock products

14. Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Livestock products cont.. • Production of meat increased by about 3% from 5.16 million tonnes in 2009 to 5.34 million tonnes in 2010. • Milk and eggs production increased by 2.3% and 3.2% from 4.75 million tonnes and 0.61 million tonnes to 4.86 million and 0.63 million tonnes respectively over the same period. • However, the Region still remains a net importer of these products.

15. Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Fisheries The Region experiences a slight increase in fish production

16. How food security and vulnerability analysis are done • Food security analysis: • Takes into account all the pillars of food security including, availability, accessibility, sustainability and utilization. • Vulnerability Analysis • In determining the number vulnerable households, the analysis uses the livelihoods based approach which takes into account all the means by which households obtain and maintain access to essential resources to ensure their immediate and long-term survival including crops, livestock, labour, remittances etc.

17. Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont..

18. Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont... Data Source: National VACs

19. Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont... • General trend of food insecure population in the Region continued to decline (findings from Tanzania not available) • Compared to last year, number of food insecure households has increased in Lesotho (157%), Namibia (129%), Zambia (39%) and Zimbabwe (8%, not including urban areas). Decreases were recorded in Malawi (81%) and Swaziland (45%). • Chronic vulnerability and high levels of poverty persists across the Region • Despite declining trend in levels of vulnerability malnutrition levels still remain high

20. Malnutrition: prevalence still high in the Region Summary of food security situation cntd…

21. Summary of food security situation cntd… • Stunting represents chronic malnutrition i.e. prenatal nutrition deprivation. • Effects of malnutrition include: • Poor physical development and mental capacity • Poor performance in school and high drop out rate • High risk of dietary related non communicable diseases affecting ability to earn decent living. • Note: Figures in the chart relate to under-nutrition among age group 0 - 59 months • Data obtained from Member States Demographic Health Surveys 2005 – 2009 and other national surveys.

22. Conclusions • SADC as a region has recorded a deficit of about 5 million MT in 2011/12 marketing year. • Number of people requiring humanitarian assistance has decreased from last year. (not including TZ). • High rates of malnutrition (stunting) still persist in a number of countries. • Lack of access to food and non-food for the very-poor and poor remain persistent – indications of chronic vulnerability linked to poverty (e.g. Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana) • Agricultural subsidy programmes in the region continue to make significant positive impacts • Some surplus cereal producing countries are experiencing depressed producer prices

23. Main Recommendations • Continued emphasis is required on increased social protection and safety nets programmes • Enhance infrastructure development for improved market access e.g. transport, storage and communication • Continued support to agriculture input and output subsidy programmes • SADC Member States should facilitate inter-country trade of food crops, livestock and fishery products from surplus areas to deficit areas • Member States are encouraged to implement medium to long term interventions to address chronic vulnerability issues and high levels of poverty • Cooperating partners and traders should be encourage to procure locally and Regionally. • Urge Member States to scale up and prioritize food and nutrition security programmes. • Member States are encouraged to draw a link between food security and climate change so as to devise and implement adaptation and mitigation measures as appropriate. • Member States are asked to promote smallholder irrigation technologies such as water harvesting technologies and drip irrigation as opposed to dependence on only rain fed agriculture

24. THANK YOU OBLIGADO MERCI