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WECOOP Seminar in Dushanbe, 18-19 June 2013 Climate Change Impact on Power Sector in the CA Renat Perelet Systemized An

WECOOP Seminar in Dushanbe, 18-19 June 2013 Climate Change Impact on Power Sector in the CA Renat Perelet Systemized Analysis Institute RAS Academician of the Russian Ecological Academy renat@perelet.msk.ru.

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WECOOP Seminar in Dushanbe, 18-19 June 2013 Climate Change Impact on Power Sector in the CA Renat Perelet Systemized An

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  1. WECOOPSeminar in Dushanbe, 18-19 June 2013 Climate Change Impact on Power Sector in the CA RenatPerelet Systemized Analysis Institute RAS Academician of the Russian Ecological Academy renat@perelet.msk.ru

  2. Ecological threats such as climate change, deforestation, air and water pollution, natural disasters impact all groups of the society.But the biggest loss they bring to poor communities. Climate change today worsens chronic ecological threats and losses to the ecosystems limits the livelihoods, especially for poor groups of population.

  3. Summary index of vulnerability under climate change

  4. Distribution of Global Green Gas Emissions with Breakdown into Sectors of Economy

  5. ENERGY • Option/ Adaption strategy • Strengthening of the infrastructure of HVL and distribution, laying underground cables for utilities; use of the renewable power sources; reduction of dependence from the sole power source; • Basic Policy framework • National Energy Policy, statutory acts and tax and financial actions to stimulate the alternative sources use; consideration of the climate change factors in the design standards • Key limitation and possibilities for implementation (direct font = limitations; course = possibilities) • Access to the reasonable alternatives; financial and technological barriers; adoption of new technologies; stimulation of new technologies; local resources use

  6. All built-up and designed hydropower facilities within the mountainous areas of the CA have a complex power and irrigation designation. After the USSR’s collapse the main water sector functioning facility was the complex use of the power and water resources and it was collapsed too.The Region states still can not find the most acceptable options for joint development of hydropower resources by joint efforts.

  7. The system allowed balancing the seasonal fluctuations of power and water demands as the irrigation resources and the water reserves fluctuations in mountain rivers. In winter KR and TJ used to collect the water in reservoirs and power resources (coal and natural gas) from KZ, TK and UZ. In summer KR and TJ sent the water to UZ and KZ for farming irrigation. In addition, KR and TJ supplied to the neighbors the hydropower generated in excessive volumes against the internal demand.

  8. Energy sector in the CA states can hardly manage the loads during peak power consumption periods caused by the temperature rise during summer and it needs in modernization and strengthening of its potential. The highest temperature in summer creates additional loads to the power transmission lines. In addition unfavorable conditions weaken capacities of the grids to function in the designed mode, specifically when it comes to the obsolete and unsatisfactorily operated facilities.

  9. The adaptation measures should be careful, especially when they can cause increased power consumption.I.e. in the farming with increased heat waves there is a temptation to increase the irrigation (and this requires the power and source fuel for the pump stations work and for injection of the water which is in shortage , including the construction of water reservoirs). In urban areas shift to the air conditioning units use also requires additional power from the fuel sources which may cause the GG emissions. The only decision is to shift to alternative power but it is still quite expensive (see below). (Source; 2009, http://www.energybulletin.net/51082 )

  10. In the world’s power generation the main power resources share during the last 30 years has a multidirectional character. Oil share is reduced significantly - 33,6,%, hydropower– 16%, coal share is reduced slightly– approximately40% (China70%). Natural gas share is increased – 19,6%, nuclear generation – 15,7%. Renewable power sources made only 3%. In total power generation is increased by 3,3 time and is equal to 17450 KW-h (all data as of 2004). However per capita volume is to be approximately 2 KW-h of power.

  11. Production volumes (green columns) and cost per1 KW (blue columns) of different types of power -Options, Summer 2010, www.iiasa.ac.at

  12. Brazil, SAR and Mexico as well as China are continuing creating the multidirectional and diversified technological foundation to assist in transfer of the existing technologies. Though such existing financial mechanisms as GEF continue contributing lot in efforts of the focused on reduction of the emissions and on adaptation. Other financial tools to support the development, implementation and transfer of the technologies should be studied too. The only financial mechanism available under the RKIK will be sufficient the same as the only mechanism for hydrocarbon market available to ensure development and implementation of the technologies.When studying the foundation establishment and functioning issues (with the state capital in it) it will be required to focus on specific functions and tasks of the foundations. i.e. what is to be financed and what mechanisms are to be applied.

  13. Effective institutional mechanism of adaptation to the Climate change are the improved regulations and procedures for the state purchase based on the best practices of foreign states. Most of the European states and other countries of other continents introduced new requirements into the legislation on state purchase relating to power efficiency during the whole life cycle including obligatory performance indicators when placing the orders as well as GG emissions reduction indicators.

  14. Forecasts of the power efficiency program in real sector. In particular, the power intensity reduction by the major companies comprising the biggest share in total production. This program should be a part of the long-term power strategy in terms of power efficiency increase and may be implemented under the state and private sector partnership. As the possible solution the experience of India where the government since August of 2009 has declared about the establishment of a new power efficiency certificates trade analogous to the GG emissions quotes in Europe, may be used.

  15. Significance of qualitative changes in the field of informal institutes (traditions, behavioral stereotypes etc.) including direct traditional experience and knowledgesuch as behavior, skills, technologies etc. for which the resource-saving (including power saving) in combination with adapting to complicated natural and mainly to climatic conditions is typical.

  16. This first what is required is a break of traditional closeness, estrangement as well as retreat from the perception of traditional knowledge and culture as from something insignificant and minor for the “global” science and industry and from the feeling (sometimes arrogant) of distinctive superiority of the modern specialist and advanced technologies.

  17. Foreign experience The Biofuels Quota Act in Germany provides the exemption from the taxes until 2015 for the producers of the secondary biofules from wood and crop wastes (biobutanol) allowing reduction of the gas emissions by 80—90% and introduction of the relevant tax for production of primary biofuel (directly from the wood and crop).

  18. Stimulation of the power saving and power efficiency means accepting the system of differential energy tariffs depending on technologies applied for its generation which would provide subsidies for the alternative power technologies. Effectiveness of this measure is proven by the experience of use of compensating tariffs (FIT) for tie-in to the producers’ grid based on renewable power sources approximately in80 states, mainly European states. In Germany owing to the FITthe share of the power generated from the renewable sources is increased from 6,3% in 2000 to over16% in 2010. In remote future the tariffs may be differentiated based on specific RPS production technologies and on place of their production.

  19. The first 24-hour Gemasolarsolar power station- was commissioned in the south of Spain in Seville province in May of 2011. The station works 6500 hours per year and generates 110 GWh of power which is able to cover 25 000 households by preventing the emission of 30 000 ton of СО2.  The CA states (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) can use such power station currently. Experts assume it profitable to build solar power stations in Sahara dessert as well as in Kara-Kum, Aral-kum and in Kyzyl-kum to provide the EU with the solar power . http://echo.msk.ru/blog/ozharovskiy/1027392-echo/

  20. Development of the RPS in the CA Small HPPs(China is focused on them mostly) Wind plants. Solar Power Facilities based on biomass (which together with the wind plants are the highly prioritized for development of the RPS in the EU and USA; biomass is a high priority for use in Brazil).

  21. BACKGROUND FOR USING THE RPS IN THE CA http://water-salt.narod.ru/prob_vie_ca.htmhttp://www.leds.uz/projects/847 Turkmenistan is more suitable for using the solar power but currently they use gas and oil reserves more. No hydraulic sources are available and wind resources are not surveyed well. Big-scale bio facilities are not good because the public large-scale livestock sector does not exist any more.

  22. KazakhstanBig opportunities for hydropower, possibilities to use wind power and bio facilities. Hydro power capacity of the RK is 17000 GWh per year, wind power may be in the volume of 1800 GWh(?), possible solar power generation is 2500 GWh per year. Bilogical fuel is the biggest reserve owing to processing the farming wastes – up to 35000 GWh, power and 44 mln of Kkl of heat power. Economic hydrotechnical capacity of Kazakhstan rivers is 58 % out of technical capacity, volume of the economically sound hydropower capacity is 26800 GWh. To improve the ecological situation and to cover deficiency of power in the South KZ it is assumed to commission the Kerbulak and Monaik HPP bfore2010.

  23. Summary designed capacity of all power station of Kazakhstan is 18 992.7 MWGeneration based on type of power plants: TPP(thermal power plants) — 87,7 %; • CPP(condensate power plants) — 48,9 %; • HPP(heat and power plant) — 36,6 %; • GTPP(gas turbine power plant) — 2,3 %; HydroPP(hydraulic power plants) — 2,3 % • Approximately 70 % of power in Kazakhstan is generated fromcoal, 14,6 % — from hydraulic resources, 10,6 % — from gasand4,9 % — fromoil. • Wind powerAverage wind velocity in Zhungar and Chilik area is 5 -9 m/s. In December of 2011Zhambyl region commissioned the first in KZ wind power plant – Korday RPS (phase one), capacity1 500 kW. • Annual duration of thesolar lightin KZ is 2200—3000 h per year and estimated capacity is 1300—1800 kWper1 m² per year. At the end of 2012Zhambyl region, Korday district has commissioned the phase one of the solar power plant – Otyrar (phase one),capacity- 504 kW, designed capacity7 MW (Kazakhstan Energy. Wikipedia.org ). In December of 2010 – solar battery plant from local silicon in Astana. (http://www.undp.kz/articles/1/313.jsp).

  24. Kyrgyzstan– huge hydropower capacity (within 140 to160 billion kWч per year) is realized only by 10%. As per the National Energy Program by 2025 the generation of power should be doubles and will be 30 billion. kWч per year+ construction of small HydroPP and introduction of RPS with the power export in future. Big possibilities for construction of the microHydrioPP. By capacity balance the northern part of the power system is insufficient and the southern is excessive.

  25. Tajikistan – hydropower resources within the structure of fuel and power resources is 80,4%.Total potential reserves of hydraulic resources of TK are 527100 GWhper year, where technically sound are 220600 GWh. By absolute reserves the TJ takes the eights place in the world. By the hydraulic resources per 1 m2 of the area (368,7 MW-h) it is the first in the world by leaving Austria behind and with 87,8 MW-h/year per capita it takes the 3rd place in the world after Island and Norway;

  26. Tajikistan Energy is the main component od the industrial and farming sectors, it is part of livelihood of citizens and education, transportation and telecommunications. TK is a leader by its potential hydro power reserves and is the first in the world by specific reserves per unit. Hydraulic resources cover over 90% of power needs of the state. In winter access to the power is limited up to 3 hours per day. Plans– power efficiency, RPR – growth by 20% The TK has technological developments on manufacturing the solar water heating facilities, capacity 0,1 -1 t of hot water(50-70oС) per one daylight. Thus, the Systemavtomatica OJSC and RPS Association have set up the production of one circuit solar collectors which are being used widely.http://www.undp.tj/files/reports/SE4ALL_TAJ_Rapid_Assessment_Final_Russian.pd

  27. * Uzbekistan – RPS Potential in mln ton*) theoretically value of power provided and generated on the territory ;**) part of the gross capacity which can be implemented with use of the existing technologies.

  28. Solar power and other RPS in UZ helps to save hydrocarbon resources, provide power independence for the state as well as provide with electricity, heat and drinking water for the population living in remote settlements as well as to the seasonal workers and expedition groups.Implementation of the RPS ensures reduction of hydrocarbons use to generate the power and retain them in a capacity of raw materials for oil and chemical industries, to attract private sector and international investments.

  29. GAK Uzbekenergo and Chinese Company,SuntechPowerCo. have agreed to establish at the Navoi SIEZ a joint venture for photoelectrical panels production, capacity 100 MWbased on modern technologies with 50 x50 funding the development of design documentation. Business plan and design and estimates are being developed for JV establishment. The phase one of this project, capacity 50 MWshould be commissioned in October 2013 with full production capacity achieved in 2015. In future it is planned to implement one more significant project: construction in Samarkand region of the photoelectrical plant, capacity 100 MW. Funding resources for the project are the preferential credit of the ABR and the funds of the Reconstruction and Development Foundatiton of the RU. Before July 1 of 2013 it is planned to allocate in Samarkand the lands for construction site and for the future plant. • http://www.finance.uz/cat/technology/in-uzbekistan-is-developing-alternative-sources-of-energy

  30. ООО" SOLAR CITY” (since 2002, Tashkent) ООО "SolarCity" is involved in development of effective solutions on renewable power and proposes both combined (wind + sun, allowing the increased efficiency and performance of the system) and specific solution applying the solar modules, wind generators and microHydroPPs.Sample calculation of the cost of the Sun + Wind System, capacity 3,5kW Facility capacity - 3,5 kW Solar panels 100W each – 20units Wind generator 1,5kW- 1 unit Accumulators12В 100А/h– 12 units Inverter 5000W – 1unit Charge controller – 1unit Control panel- 1 unit Other equipment – in a package RPS cost 53 500 000 sum Assembling, pre-commissioning and other works -15% from the RPS cost Delivery to the place is to be paid separately.

  31. CONCLUSION In the nearest future there are no serious reasons to refuse developing the hydro power in the CA region. The only way to provide the region with the assured permanent rivers is to build the water reservoir regardless the reliability of climate change forecasts. Wind and solar power plants in the CA are good mainly for the dessert and mountainous areas.

  32. THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION RenatPerelet Systemized Analysis RAS Institute Member of the Supreme Ecological Council of the State Duma of the RF renat@perelet.msk.ru

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