UK Carbon Reduction Programme (CRed) for Climate Change Mitigation

1. Climate Change MitigationWhat the UK is Doing the Carbon Reduction Programme CRed Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Факультет экологических исследований Университета Восточной Англии Energy Science Director, Low Carbon Innovation Centre

2. Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions • Climate Change – a short review

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001 Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Total summer precipitation Total winter precipitation

5. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 actual Is Global Warming man made? predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

6. 1979 Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery 2003 • 20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

7. Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions

8. International Comparisons • In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of • 5.1 kW • In USA it is 10.6 kW • 1/20th or World’s Population consumes 25% of all energy • In Europe it is 5.7 kW • In Russia it is also 5.7 kW • Globally it is around 2 kW • ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming

9. International Comparisons 40000 USA 35000 Qatar Japan 30000 Canada UK 25000 France Other EU Countries GDP per head (US$ (95) 20000 Germany Mediterranean EU Poland Nordic EU 15000 New EU Russia 10000 China 5000 India 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 kW per Head Energy - GDP Relationships

10. International Comparisons Qatar Developing Countries USA Australia Russia Germany Canada UK Japan France Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of Energy

11. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Different Countries Renewables 4% Other 2% Hydro 1% Oil 3% Other 0.4% Nuclear 2.3% Nuclear 21% Coal 37% Hydro 14.9% Gas 33% Oil 2% UK China Russia Electricity Emission Factors • Russia ~ 0.50 kg/kWh • China ~ 0.87 kg/kWh • UK ~ 0.52 kg/kWh

12. Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions

13. Change in Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in UK Major changes in the Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation

14. Electricity Options for the Future From 1990 to 1999 • Substantial fall in carbon dioxide emissions • Despite 23% increase in demand • However, once change is made saving cannot be made again • Hence rise in recent years • Carbon Emission Factors for Electricity Generation • Coal ~ 1000 g/kWh • Oil ~ 850 g/kWh • Gas ~ 540 g/kWh • Gas (CCGT) ~ 420 g/kWh • Nuclear ~ 4 g/kWh

15. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Business as usual Energy Efficient Future Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

16. Electricity Options for the Future • Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010 • But 68% growth in gas demand • (compared to 2002) • Business as Usual • 257% increase in gas consumption • ( compared to 2002) The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010 20% renewables by 2020

17. Alternative Electricity Options for the Future • 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 are to fall significantly Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels

18. Energy Saving: Why is it important for the UK? • In the past the UK has been self sufficient in energy • Under present trends the UK will be a substantive importer of natural gas ~ 80% and oil by 2020 • It makes sense to reduce energy demand and still remain competitive economically. • Reducing energy demand will also see a reduction in carbon dioxide - the main contributor to Global Warming • The Government has set targets and provided mechanisms to provide grants for individuals and industry. • However, more could be done.

19. Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market 60 MW offshore Wind Farm at Yarmouth commissioned early 2005. New Wave Powered device - launched 6th August 2004 Onshore 1.5 MW turbine • Government Targets • 10.4% of total electricity by 2010 • unlikely to be met - at best 6 - 7% • 20% by 2020

20. Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market • Renewables Obligation • Requires all suppliers to provide a minimum percentage of electricity from New Renewables. • In 2006 - 2007 the percentage will be 6.7%, but only around 4% is being achieved. • Target is increased each year • In 2006 – 2007 Suppliers will fined at 3.324 p per kWh (1.662 Roubles) per kWh for any shortfall. • Fine is index linked – in 2002 – 3 it was 3.0 p per kWh • This is introducing a new market in the trading of Renewable Obligation Certificates - issued as proof of generation.

21. Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) Notifies Regulator how much generated. Notifies OFGEM of compliance -i.e. ROCs or pays FINE ROC’s issued FINES recycled in proportion to ROCs held Sells Electricity with or without ROCs Buys ROCs from Trader Sells ROCs to Trader The Regulator OFGEM Renewable Generator SUPPLIERS Trader and Brokers

22. Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) • £12 - 15 per MWh Recycled fines • £1.50+ per MWh Embedded benefits • £4.30 per MWh Climatic Change Levy • £33.24 per MWh Value of ROC (2006) • £40 - £45 per MWh Wholesale Electricity Price Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ £2-£3 per MWh Value of Renewable Generation about £90 per MWh i.e. about twice wholesale price

23. Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions

24. The Carbon Reduction Project • Aims to Reduce CO2 emissions by 60% to combat Climate Change • Started in Norwich • Now also in Suffolk, Camden, Essex, Cheshire and others • Elsewhere in World: • USA (North Carolina), Japan (Okinawa) China (Shanghai) • Promoting Approriate Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation • Promoting Awareness • Working with businesses, Public Bodies, individuals

25. Energy Saving: Awareness / Education / Advice and the domestic sector • Understandable Language Each person in UK emits 9 tonnes of CO2 per year ~ 5 hot air balloons A mobile phone charger left on ------ up to 25 kg CO2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of a balloon) A tumble dryer uses four times as much energy as the equivalent washing machine - use the dryer sparingly Boiling an extra cup full of water causes the emission of 25 cupfuls of carbon dioxide. Russia 10.5 tonnes ~ 6 balloons

26. Community Engagement - Reepham in the Community CO2 by proportion Flying 11% Other household energy 28% Car 21% Heating/ hot water 40% Total emitted by residents of Reepham 13288 tonnes of CO2 = 7382 hot air balloons of CO2 Reepham is now developing a zero-carbon ambition

27. at the University 3% Radiation Losses 11% Flue Losses GAS Exhaust Heat Exchanger Engine Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly 36%efficient 61% Flue Losses 86%efficient Engine heat Exchanger

28. at the University Conversion efficiency improvements Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

29. at the University Conversion efficiency improvements Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer

30. at the University A 1 MW Adsorption chiller uses waste heat to provide chilling 1 MW 吸附冷却器 The Adsorption chiller will save around 700 tonnes CO2 reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated 吸附冷却器可为东滩提供空调系统 每一个可减少排放700吨CO2

31. at the University: Other Projects to reduce CO2 ZICER a very low energy building • Designed as a low energy building • Includes 34 kW of Photovoltaic Generation on top of building • Plans to install 4 – 6 MW of Wind Generation • Plans to install biomass CHP

32. at the University: Good Energy Management Good Management has reduced emissions of the low energy building by a further 57%

33. and the Business Sector Packaging x 1200 saving

34. and the Transport Sector Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry Small things add up! A saving of 58% is possible

35. Making a Pledge www.cred-uk.org

36. and a vision for the future in China Biogas Building with support area beneath hill 沼气区和位于人造山下的支持区域 Municipal Building with support below mound 市政废物区和人造山下的支持区域 Biomass Building with storage area beneath hill 生物质能区和位于人造山下的储存区域 Energy River – Greenhouse of the future 能源之河-未来温室 Visitor Centre & Solar Research 访客中心和太阳能研究中心 Main Entrance 主入口 An integrated power station, stunning architecture, a visitor centre and theme park

37. And Finally LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." If we do not change direction then we WILL end up where we are heading and the adverse consequences of Climate Change. • Combating Climate Change requires • Promotion of Appropriate Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation • Carbon Capture and Sequestration in the Future • Promoting Awareness to use energy more effectively • Supporting the aims of the Programme VISIT the WEB Site www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be displayed on above WEB Site >> follow Academic Links Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови k.tovey@uea.ac.uk

39. Energy Saving: The UK Perspective UK has become more efficient in using energy to generate wealth over past 50 years. Generates the same wealth with 45% of energy as in 1950. Improvement ~ 1.45% per annum

40. Energy Consumption: The UK Perspective Wealth of UK increased uniformly with energy in 1950s and 1960s Major infra-structure projects in late 1960s - early 1970s 1979 - 1992 restructuring followed by increase efficiency 1992 - increased conservation

41. Energy Saving: Energy Conservation Grants Energy Saving Trust: Grants for Domestic Properties - also Transport www.est.org.uk Carbon Trust: Grants for Businesses www.thecarbontrust.co.uk