Adaptation in the agricultural sector in Hungary

1. Adaptation in the agricultural sector in Hungary Sándor Szalai Szent István University Gödöllő, Hungary Szalai@met.hu

2. Content • Geographical situation • Climatological conditions • Hydrological conditions • Possible climate change in Hungary • Some features of the Hungarian agriculture • Adaptation measures, possibilities • Conclusion

3. Carpathian basin

4. Requirements • Adaptation to projected climate changes, however, requires tools and mechanisms, many of which are still to be developed, to meet engineering standards with respect to the accuracy and quality of projections. Uncertainties are still large, meaning that water managers have to include this element in their decision making process. Mr. M. Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO, Helsinki, Finland, Conference on Climate and Water, 3-6 September 2007

5. Climatological characteristics

6. Mean annual temperature in Hungary: 1971-2000, 1971-80, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 (HMS, 2005)

7. Seasonal temperature trends

8. Average annual precipitation amounts: 1955-84, 65-94, 75-04, and the change in 54 years (Szalai, S. et al., 2005)

9. Seasonal precipitation trends OMSZ, 2007

10. Number of wet days and the average precipitation on one wet day (Szalai, S. et al., 2005)

11. Drought frequency zones in Hungary No drought Rare drought Moderate Medium Severe Extreme (Pálfai, 2005)

12. Soil types of Hungary Barna erdőtalaj Csernozjom Homok Rétitalajok Öntéstalajok Szikesek Láptalajok SZIE-TALT 2002 nyomán

13. Hortobágy (National Park)

15. A Kiskunság

17. Surplus water Flooded area on the Great Hungarian Plan in 1931-2006 Thousands ha

18. Map of the surplus water frequency in Hungary Low Moderate Medium Large Lakes, surface waters Border of water authorities

19. Estimated water budget of Hungary • Flow in from abroad 112 km3 • Flow out to abroad 118 km3 • Precipitation 58 km3 • Water consumption 60 km3 • Industrial consumption 4,5 km3 • Use by pipelines 1,0 km3 • Agricultural consumption • -           aquaculture (lakes) 0,5 km3 • -          irrigation 0,5 km3 • -          forcing 0,1 km3

20. Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn IPCC 2001 1,0 1,0 0,9 1,2 1,0 IPCC 2007 0,9 1,0 1,3 PRUDENCE 1,4 1,3 1,1 1,7 1,5 EMPIRIA 2,0 1,1 Expected change of temperature for 2030 in Hungary (Mika, 2006)

21. Év Tél Tavasz Nyár Ősz IPCC 2001 -2,5 4,0 -2,3 -4,9 -2,8 IPCC 2007 -0,7 1,9 -3,7 PRUDENCE -0,3 9,0 0,9 -8,2 -1,9 EMPIRIA -2,2 7,6 -19,7 Expected change of precipitation for 2030 in Hungary (Mika, 2006)

22. Present situation Border of the forest and steppe For 1 C warming and 40 mm drying Matyas et al., 2006)

23. Agro-ecopotential of the great landscapes in Hungary Potential is based on the 9 most characteristic agricultural plants

24. More than 80 % of the area of Hungary is agro-ecosystem (Jolankai, 2007) arable orchard grass forest others

25. Land-use determination Determinated by sensitivity Double determinated Determination by agricultural production

26. Water balance (ET {red} and precipitation {blue}) of different plant based on 40 year precipitation measurements in mm According to Varga-Haszonits (2003) Winter wheat Maize Sugar beet Sunflower

27. Connection between the water deficit of potato and the yield reduction Decrease of yield in t/ha Water deficit in mm

28. Connection between the water deficit of maize and the yield reduction Reduction in yield Water deficit in mm

29. Annual sum of water deficit at maize Water deficit

30. Modelled change in water-limited wheat yield (T ha-1) by 2050 relative to the baseline climate EU CLIVARA Project Source: Harrison and Butterfield, 2000

31. Adaptation policy assessment

32. Top-down approach World development Global greenhouse gases Global climate models Regionalisation Impacts Vulnerability (physical) Climate adaptation policy CCIAV research Vulnerability (social) Adaptive capacity Indicators based on: Technology Information & skills Equity Economic resources Infrastructure Institutions Bottom-up approach Dessai and Hulme (2003) Dessai and Hulme (2003) Modified Top-down and bottom-up approaches Global According to Carter, 2007 Local Past Present Future

33. Administrative and organisational basis of adaptation measures • New Hungary (Új Magyarország) Rural • Development Plan • New Hungary (Új Magyarország) Rural • Development Strategy • National Drought Strategy • National Climate Change Strategy

34. Suggested structure of adaptation in the National Climate Change Strategy • Possible climate change in the Carpathian basin • Its impact in the main sectors • Estimation of the present adaptive capacity of Hungary • Collecting the most important activities

35. Agricultural adaptation • Strongly connected to the adaptation in the water management • Irrigation and/or dryfarming? • Natural disaster prevention

36. Connecting water management measures • Changing temporal distribution of precipitation, to keep the winter precipitation for summer • especially at the river Tisza, New Vásárhelyi plan, additional reservoirs • Irrigation channels (Water Framework Directive) • Water sparing technologies

37. Irrigation or dryfarming • Basic question is the cost benefit ratio and the minimal income • Intensive farming (costly but higher benefit) vs. external farming (low income) • Size of farms (support for co-operations, LEADER, etc.)

38. Irrigation of arable land in Hungary in ha A szántóföldi kultúrák öntözése Magyarországon, ha FVM, 2005 Non-irrigated max possible irrigated fact irrigated max. Arable land irrigation in Mha

39. Irrigation (Dirksen, W., 2006)

40. Natural disaster prevention • Floods • Droughts • Hails • Frost (climate change ? longer vegetation period) • Wind erosion

41. Legal background • On domestic level: insurance (state owned) question of reliefs, subsidies, etc. On EU level: Many plants are produced according to regulations (vinegrape, vine production). By the climate change, all this should be adapted. WFD, etc.

42. Livestock • Sensitive intensively produced species (pigs, chickens, etc.) • More native species (subsidied) • Growing shadow- and water demand • New features to be attend: sensitivity to the climate change • Changing grass species on the medows

43. Still lacking … • Traditional procedures exists for protection of national disasters. They should be actualise. • Complex information system for general cost benefit calculations • Legal background • Organisational background • Programme for the social interaction

44. Conclusion • Many plans, activities have been done • Largest problems on the connection of the subsystems • … but we have not much time

45. Thank you very much for your attention!