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How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050

How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050. Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to NCREIF Chicago September, 19, 2013. Long Term Fundamentals. U.S. only advanced country with large, growing population Huge resource base

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How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050

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  1. How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050 Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to NCREIF Chicago September, 19, 2013

  2. Long Term Fundamentals • U.S. only advanced country with large, growing population • Huge resource base • Economic system most resilient among advanced countries • Affordable housing attracts key demographic groups • Dispersion and decentralization is the future

  3. More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050 Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope

  4. Labor Force Growth U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

  5. Ratio of Elderly to Working Age Population 65 & OVER PERSONS PER 15-64 YEARS Calculated from UN Population Prospects: 2010 Revision

  6. Future Drivers of Growth Resurgence of Basic Industry Rise of Growth Corridors Role of Immigration Millennials, Seniors and the role of families drive dispersion

  7. Ag Exports Increasing Driven by solid worldwide demand, increased productivity, and strong commodity prices, America’s ag sector has seen overall export levels steadily increase over the past decade. Source: USDA Economic Research Service

  8. Leading in Gas Production

  9. Shale Oil and Gas- Not Just the Bakken

  10. Source: EMSI Complete Employment, 2011.4

  11. A High Economic MultiplierActivity Generated by $1 of Sector GDP

  12. Source: EMSI Class of Worker Employment, 2012.2

  13. MAP by Forbes Magazine

  14. 2013-2023 JOB GROWTH % CHANGE Research by EMSI, Inc.

  15. Population trends

  16. Domestic Migration by State: 2000-2009 10 LARGEST STATES Data from Census Bueau

  17. Gaining States

  18. Declustering: The New Demography • Nationwide people heading to smaller towns and cities • Shift to opportunity regions • Social trends strongly pro-suburban • US Population growth will increase interest “flyover country”

  19. Net Domestic Migration by Population MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-09, 2010-12 From Census Bureau Data

  20. PROJECTED CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS 2012-2017 Research by Pitney Bowes Corp.

  21. Housing Preferences: Realtors Survey 2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY

  22. Population Growth by Distance from Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010 Data from Census Bureau

  23. Fastest Growing Counties Over 100,000 2010-2012 Data from Census Bureau

  24. Groups Shaping our Future Demography • Key demographic groups: Immigrants, Millennials, Aging Boomers --- mostly in suburbs • Millennials start to grow up • Shift in geography of family: key to long-term growth

  25. White-Non-Hispanic Share of Population US: 1960-2050 Source: Bureau of the Census

  26. Foreign Born Share of New Households US: 1970-2010 Source: Myers & Pitkin

  27. Immigration Rates Top 15 Regions Annual Average, 2001-2008 Areas are MSA U.S. Census Population Estimates

  28. Empty Nesters: To Less Dense Areas MAJOR METROPOLITAN & SMALLER AREAS 65-74 Population in 2010 Compared to 55-64 in 2000 Source: US Census Data

  29. 90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move - AARP “They don’t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development – funky but safe.” - Washington-area developer Jeff Lee. Photo: Vlastula

  30. Millennials rival Boomers U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008

  31. Millennials and the Family 85% plan to get married 77% probably or definitely want children Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007

  32. Millennial Life Style Choices COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS Current Residence Source: Frank N. Magid Associates Ideal Place to Live

  33. Absolute Change: College Graduates HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: MAJOR METRO AREAS: 2007-9 52 Metropolitan Areas over Million Population 2007

  34. Change in 5-17 Population: 2000-2010 MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREA EXAMPLES Source: Census Data

  35. No matter how many communes anybody invents, the family always creeps back. Margaret Mead

  36. JOELKOTKIN.COM A vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society—families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.

  37. Questions and Comment

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