Transforming Africa in a Generation: The African Transformation Report

1. The African Transformation Report (Yaw Ansu, Chief Economist, ACET) The African Transformation Report (Yaw Ansu, Chief Economist, ACET)

2. Introducing ACET • Founded in 2007 to shift the focus of development discussion and efforts in Africa from poverty reduction and shallow growth to Economic Transformation through research and advisory services. Based in Accra; works in several SSA countries

3. Economic Transformation • Economic Transformation = Rapid economic growth and structural transformation driven by increases in productivity, technological capability, economic diversification and international competitiveness that foster job creation and shared prosperity. • Despite recent growth recovery in SSA (and ACET-15), there has been little progress on economic transformation in the region over the 40 year period; • Lack of progress can be observed over the state-led and private sector-hostile import-substitution period of the 1970s as well as the market-oriented “roll-back-the state” period of structural adjustment programs that started in the 1980s.

4. Overview of the Africa Transformation Report (ATR) ATR intended as a vehicle for popular dissemination of lessons from ACET research and advisory work • Topic: Economic Transformation of Africa • Audience: African policymakers, businesses and economic actors in Africa, opinion makers in Africa, external development agencies • Purpose: Getting Africans to debate and decide where to go on economic transformation (a lively internal thing with supporting actors from outside) • Length: 120 main text pages in print plus front matter plus annexes • Expected Launch: May 2013. • Working title: Transforming Africa in a Generation

5. ATR Vision and Main Message Vision • (By 2040) Well-managed and robustly growing African economies that are competitive in the global market place in a widening array of technologically sophisticated goods and services, and that support thriving private sectors and create growing productive employment opportunities. Main message • African countries can build prosperous, equitable, technologically advanced and globally competitive economies by 2040. This will require a transformation agenda informed by evidence of what works and by pragmatic and flexible strategies, managed by capable states, driven by the private sector, and “checked by” an engaged and responsible civil society.

6. ATR Main Features • ATR meets felt need to inform debate and advance the economic transformation agenda • Africa-based and driven, to enhance acceptance by African policymakers and business leaders • The first report explicitly focusing on economic transformation • Country studies review and compares country performance on economic transformation • ACET-15 countries over the period from 1970 to 2010. [ACET-15=Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana, South Africa, and Mauritius. [Subsequent ATRs will expand countries beyond SSA • Also compares ACET-15 to 8 Comparator Countries(= S. Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Chile)

7. ATR Main Features contd • Thematic studies provide lessons and best practices of transformation experiences • Sectoral studies identify pathways for economic diversification • Introduces the Africa Transformation Indicators and the Africa Transformation Index (ATI)

8. ATR Contents • Part A: The Economic Transformation Record • Main objective: To show the record on economic transformation in SSA compared to successful developing countries, and among SSA countries so as to urge SSA policy makers to go beyond poverty reduction and focus directly on actively promoting economic transformation: growth; productivity, technological capability, economic diversification, export competitiveness; and employment. • Chapter 1: The Case for Economic Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa • Chapter 2: Economic Transformation in ACET-15; Performance on African Transformation Index (ATI)

9. ATR Contents contd • Part B: Important Drivers of Economic Transformation—Selected Examples • Main Objective: To provide information on the role that a particular driver has played in the transformation experiences of successful countries, and the various policy measures and institutional mechanisms deployed to realize the objectives regarding that particular driver. The information provides background for policy makers to tailor their own policy measures and institutional mechanisms to suit their particular circumstances and economic transformation objectives. • Chapter 3: Harnessing state and private capacity for economic transformation • Chapter 4: Developing Skills for Economic Transformation • Chapter 5: Promoting Exports

10. ATR Contents contd • Part C: Pathways to Export Diversification—Selected Examples • Main Objective: To discuss potential pathways for African countries to grow and diversify their exports based on: relative factor endowments (i.e. labor, land and natural resources abundant; capital and skills scarce); historical paths to industrialization (e.g. textiles and garments; food industries; assembly of simple manufactures..etc); and current and projected global market trends (e.g. WTO; rise of China; global value chains…etc). • Chapter 6: Garments: Still the starting point? • Chapter 7: Leveraging Agriculture for Economic Transformation • Chapter 8: Leveraging Tourism for Economic Transformation • Chapter 9: Component Assembly Manufacturing: Still the Second Rung? • Chapter 10: Leveraging Extractives for Economic Transformation

11. Conclusion Call to Action—to policymakers, business, civil society, and academics in SSA: For Leadership by political leadership on economic transformation; national Commitment to a Transformation Strategy; and Confidence and Pragmatism in its implementation.