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ENERGY SECURITY IN GERMANY AND POLAND

ENERGY SECURITY IN GERMANY AND POLAND. By Glenn D. Roettger 11 September, 2007. RESEARCH QUESTION. Can Germany and Poland maintain Energy Security using Russia as their primary supplier? . Overview. INTRODUCTION ENERGY SECURITY SITUATION BACKGROUND RESOURCE ANALYSIS BY COUNTRY

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ENERGY SECURITY IN GERMANY AND POLAND

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  1. ENERGY SECURITY INGERMANY AND POLAND By Glenn D. Roettger 11 September, 2007

  2. RESEARCH QUESTION Can Germany and Poland maintain Energy Security using Russia as their primary supplier?

  3. Overview INTRODUCTION ENERGY SECURITY SITUATION BACKGROUND RESOURCE ANALYSIS BY COUNTRY OIL NATURAL GAS COAL NUCLEAR ENERGY STRATEGY BY COUNTRY STRENGHTS WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIES CONCLUSIONS

  4. The Energy Future

  5. Situation and Background • WHAT IS ENERGY SECURITY? • Energy Security is the ability to have at disposal energy in quantity • and quality needed to cover the nation’s economic and social needs, • Including its international commitments. • WHY DOES GERMANY CARE? • Germany currently imports 70% of all its energy from Russia, and is • the largest consumer of Russian energy in Europe. • WHY DOES POLAND CARE? • Poland only imports 30% of all their energy from Russia, but • they are reflective of what could be the future for the rest of the • former CIS nations.

  6. Situation and Background (Cont) WHY DOES RUSSIA CARE? Russia makes up 12% of the global production of oil while at the same time they have the world’s largest proven gas reserves at 32%. MUTUAL DEPENDENCE? Yes -- Unfortunately WHAT WILL THE IMPACT BE FOR EUROPE? EU Centric—every comes together now while planning on reducing dependence on Russia later Go it Alone—Favored by Russia, EU cannot establish a common policy, Russia gets to be the bully US Backed—Limit Russian influence and encourages Moscow to open up for foreign investment

  7. REMEMBER RUSSIA?

  8. REMEMBER RUSSIA?

  9. ENERGY CONSUMPTION

  10. GERMAN OIL

  11. GERMAN NATURAL GAS

  12. GERMAN COAL

  13. GERMAN NUCLEAR • 1/3 of all electricity comes from nuclear energy • 17 reactors—using 20.6% of installed capacity • supplied 158.7 TWh in 2006 • Coalition government formed after the 1998 federal elections • voted to phase out nuclear energy by 2020. • Legislation limits operational life of nuclear power plants • to an average of 32 years. US plants limited to 60 years

  14. GERMAN ENERGY POLICY Reduce greenhouse emissions by up to 40% by 2020 Requires energy producers to increase efficiency by 3% per year and improve conservation No nuclear policy changes—Still on 2020 phase out pace Replaced nuclear with renewable sources Using combined heat and power plants Strong push for “unbundling,” Splits generating and distribution arms of the energy industry Very strong criticism in that it is not an energy policy only an anti-energy policy

  15. Strengths, Weaknesses, & Opportunities STRENGTHS North Sea Pipeline can bring even more supplies Leading the way on energy efficiency and environmental awareness WEAKNESS: Growing trend of energy nationalism North Sea Pipeline could actually be used as a strategic tool to manipulate others Large corporations and policies go against EU Energy Commission OPPORTUNITIES: If the Europeans could develop a common energy policy then they could counterbalance the Russians.

  16. Combined Heat & Power (FYI) Gas Turbine or Engine With Heat Recovery Unit Steam Boiler With Steam Turbine

  17. POLAND OIL

  18. POLAND NATURAL GAS

  19. POLAND COAL

  20. POLAND NUCLEAR The introduction of nuclear power program is foreseen after 2020 Justified by the need to diversify primary energy sources and the need to restrict the greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. Commissioning of the first nuclear power plant before 2020 is deemed to be impossible. Would require 10 years to build, plus 5 years for public campaign preceding any investment

  21. POLAND: ENERGY POLICY • Guidelines for Poland's Energy Policy until the year 2020 • Adopted by the Council of Ministers, February 2000. • Policy consists of: • Improvement of fuel consumption efficiency i.e. cogeneration promotion • Rational heat and electricity consumption • Promotion of non-conventional and renewable energy sources. • Promotion of energy efficiency concentrates on: • Direct regulations (standards) • Market stimulation (economic & fiscal) • Supporting instruments (information, education, Research & Development

  22. Strengths, Weaknesses, & Opportunities STRENGTHS Reducing dependence on Russian energy supplies Developing relations with other northern EU nations for supplies Energy Industry falls in line with EU plan for decoupling WEAKNESS: Growing trend of energy nationalism Very expensive since infrastructure has to be built (current pipelines are Russian) Energy Industry is immature, not as competitive in the market and could be taken over OPPORTUNITIES: If the Europeans could develop a common energy policy then they could counterbalance the Russians.

  23. Conclusion Common Energy Policy is the key Multilateral is better than Unilateral agreements w/Russia North European Pipeline is not a windfall for Germany much less Europe Poland might be the example for the rest of Europe if they can pull it off Could the current system be used to distribute energy like the US power grid?

  24. THE GRID ?

  25. THE GOAL?

  26. QUESTIONS?

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