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Buy German Arms, Get Foreign Aid Free!. Austin Baker Abby Cooner Prof . Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar. Research Question. The Global Arms Trade. Independent Variable Dependent Variable. Eclectic Buying Patterns Highly Competitive Buyer’s Market. Hypothesis.
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Buy German Arms, Get Foreign Aid Free! Austin Baker Abby Cooner Prof. Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar
Research Question The Global Arms Trade Independent Variable Dependent Variable • Eclectic Buying Patterns • Highly Competitive • Buyer’s Market
Hypothesis • If a country imports German arms, they are more likely to receive German foreign aid. How does this make sense?
The Process Foreign Country German Arms Manufacturers Buys Arms Receives Aid Federal Security Council BDSV Export Permits Chancellor Bundestag
Methodology • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) • Arms transfers database • OECD Data (Vreeland, et. al.) • Adapted from “Model 5” • Country and year fixed-effects • 1989-2009
Conclusion • Arms market: extremely competitive • Small impact, statistically significant • Causal logic reinforced by data
Future Work • Expand control variables • Lagging data • Case studies • Deeper understanding of German government and German lobbying practices