Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis

2. Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis Source: UN/DESA

3. Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis Global GDP Growth (Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized) Source: IMF

4. Global Trends: Food Crisis Source: FAO

5. Early Warning Indicators A. Flash Quarterly GDP (Now-Casting) • The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities • Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter • Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period

6. Quarterly Flash GDP

7. Actual vs. Flash GDP

8. Early Warning Indicators B. Monthly Flash GDP • Calculated using Production Approach • One Month Timeliness • Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as: • Administrative Data • Price Statistics • Monthly Survey Results • Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises

9. Early Warning Indicators B. Monthly Flash GDP • Better timeliness • Less accuracy, but acceptable • Availability of strong monthly set of information • Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP • Strengthen the high frequency indicators

11. Early Warning Indicator C. Composite Leading Economic Indicators • Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic activity for immediate future • Extracting signals and producing estimates for a better understanding of cyclical movements • This work is currently under construction • Weighting system will be derived

12. Early Warning Indicator C. Composite Leading Economic Indicators

13. Challenges Encountered • Rallying for resources • Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency indicators – historic emphasis annual data • Composite Leading Indicator • Lack of sufficient indicators • Methodological improvements in existing data

14. Thank you