3. City population trends

1. 3. City population trends In general there is a concern that continued fast urbanisation in the post-apartheid period will overwhelm the capacity of cities to accommodate all residents What are the real settlement dynamics and their likely impact? • City to city migration • Intra-city movements of people • International migration • Other demographic shifts, notably from HIV/AIDS • Scenarios and implications • Key issues examined in the report: • Growth trends in nine SACN cities and secondary cities • Rural-urban migration and reverse migration

2. 3. City population trends Between 1996-2001 SA’s pop grew 10,44% (or 2,01% / yr) Between 1996-2001 9 cities grew 14,82% (or 2,80% / yr) But this picture of ‘faster big city growth’ must be nuanced • SA cities growth slower than national pop growth over 55 years • Slower than in the 1960s • And slower than in the 1991-96 period

3. 3. City population trends Not all the 9 cities are growing at the same pace According to census data 3 groups … • Fast growth cities growing at btwn 3,4% - 4,1% per annum • Stable growth cities growing at btwn 2,3% - 2,4% per annum • Slow growth cities growing at btwn 0,6% - 1,3% per annum • So 4 SACN cities grew at a rate slower than population growth outside 21 largest cities in SA – a rate of only 1,4% per annum

4. 3. City population trends 96-01 population growth in specific cities

5. 3. City population trends But fast growth SACN cities are not growing nearly as fast as some hyper-growth secondary cities And slow growth cities are not seeing depopulation as in some secondary cities

6. 3. City population trends Migration is the main reason for differences in city growth Large proportion of SA population ‘on the move’. But the dynamics are not easy to read: • Massive rural to rural migration • ‘Permanent’ in-migration to urban areas balanced by returns to rural areas later in life. Under-urbanisation? • ‘Circular migration’ as strong as ever • Rural to urban migrants are getting younger (especially 15-19 year olds) • City to city migration is increasing • Foreign in-migration increasing, especially asylum seekers

7. 3. City population trends • Some cities are seeing as many people moving out as moving in, and large outmigration to other SACN cities

8. 3. City population trends SA cities are in the middle of a demographic transition, which is seeing move to smaller, nuclear households, decline in fertility, etc Hard to read the impact of HIV/AIDS within this, especially with roll-out of ARVs • Are we already seeing: • An accellerated decline in fertility? • Above normal rate of popu-lation decline in 20-39 yr olds? • Urban to rural return migration, especially among women, as they ‘go home to die’?

9. 3. City population trends In the intersection of these forces three likely scenarios • Continued very fast growth of a core of cities, hand in hand with very slow growth in others as people leave these centres – Gauteng polycentric urban region equivalent in size to some of world’s largest “megacities”? • All cities drop back to a stable growth path. Some slightly faster or slower • All cities dragged back to a weak growth path under impact of under-urbanisation and HIV/AIDS, with depopulation in some Gauteng poly-centric urban region Pop 14,6 m ?