National Centers for Environmental Prediction Development/Status Update

1. National Centers for Environmental PredictionDevelopment/Status Update Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” July 11, 2011

2. Goals for Today’s Meeting • Provide overview of NCEP • Review current ongoing NOS/NCEP interactions since last NOS visit (July 2010) • Start the process – future strategic goals and related steps in attaining those goals

3. Outline • NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services • NOAA’s Model Production Suite • Computer Capability • Update Status from Last Meeting (July, 2010) • Enabling “Operational” Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities • Summary

4. NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) - Process - Assimilate - Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

5. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

6. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch; working with IOOS/SURA on possible test bed Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 6

7. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations 7

8. NOAA’s Model Production SuiteNWS Seamless Suite of Forecasts Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Ocean Model Great Lakes/ Coastal/Bay Models Hurricane Models Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days North American Forecast Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation • GFDL • WRF Dispersion Models for DHS Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

9. NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast Climate NOS PORTS GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC CFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled Coupled (Future) 3.5B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather (Future) North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation 9 9 NOAH Land Surface Model

10. Update Status from Last MeetingJuly 2010 10

11. Activities Timeline for NOS Interaction • Computer “backbone” agreement - 2005 • NOS/NCEP MOU – September 2008 • Modeling CONOPS completed – May 2010 • NOS/NCEP Leadership meeting – July 2010 • Great Lakes Operational Forecast System Implementation – December 7, 2010 • SURA meeting at NCEP – March 2, 2011 • Implementation of Chesapeake Bay, Tampa Bay and Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System – March 29, 2011 • IOOS/OPC working toward support for Ocean/Coastal test bed (ongoing)

12. Current Status • NCO now supports NOS models in operational mode • Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Tampa Bay • Other models now being assessed by NOS for implementation (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, Columbia River,…) • Global HYCOM running in parallel; to be implemented by September 30, 2011 • 4 km NMMB to be implemented August 9 • 4km winds for bay models • Actively enabling (providing O2R support for) ecosystem forecasts (report out on July 5-6 workshop) • NWS/NCEP working with IOOS to support SURA/Test bed

13. Transition to IBM Power 6 complete Declared operational August 12, 2009 73.1 trillion calculations/sec Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 156 POWER6 32-way nodes 4,992 processors 20 terabytes of memory 330 terabytes of disk space 3.5 billion observations/day 27.8 Million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Web access to models as they run on the CCS Approaching capacity limits for existing operational computing (new system, scheduled Sept 2013) Number of Hits (Millions) Number of Hits (Millions) Computing CapabilityApplied to NWS and Now NOS Model Services Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

14. “Enabling” Operational Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities • A major goal in NWS Strategic Plan • Look to partner with NOS, OAR, NESDIS and other NOAA components with NOS providing lead • Many opportunities to accelerate various regional-local based Ecological Forecasting Systems 14

15. Summary NCEP is Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” Working with NOAA on opportunities to “enable” and expand predictive capabilities (e.g., oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…) with success based on interdisciplinary Earth System approach NCEP-NOS ocean-coastal operational working relationship NCEP-NOS CO-OPS CONOPS agreement Increasing interactions with SURA through IOOS A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery – working with IOOS on establishing test bed within OPC Enabling predictive capabilities for ecosystem and human health applications

16. Today’s Meeting Agenda 10:30 a.m. Opening Statements – Objectives for Today Laura Furgione, NWS DAA, D Dr.Holly Bamford, NOS DAA 10:50 a.m. Developments/Status Update Since Last Visit to NCEP Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, NCEP Director 11:10 a.m. Collaborative Modeling Efforts: Progress and Lessons Dr. HendrikTolman, Chief, Ocean Modeling Branch Mary Erickson, Chief, Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL) 11:35 a.m. Coastal Ecological Forecasting; Vision and Prospects for Operational Services Dr. Russell Callender, Acting Director, NCCOS/NOS Ecological Forecasting:Report on July 5-6 Workshop Dr. David Green, OCWWS/NWS 12:00 p.m. Vision andProspect for an Ocean/Coastal Modling Test bed Zdenka Willis, Director, IOOS Program Dr. Ming Ji, Director, Ocean Prediction Center 12:30 p.m. Discussion/Working Lunch - Review current projects underway - Identify gaps or projected delays - Future planned project - Areas for future growth - Building logical partnerships (NMFS, USACE, DOE…) 1:15 p.m. Executive Session Execs Adjourn to NCEP Director’s Office 1:15 p.m. Technical Breakout Discussions 2:30 p.m. Regroup/Report Out/Wrap Up 3:00 p.m. Adjourn

17. Appendix 17

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19. Forecast Metrics 19

20. Record Values

22. NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models Advances Related To USWRP 2003-2009 trend line

23. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Fully coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

24. Integrated User Requirements Ecosystem Services such as flood and storm protection, clean water supply, safe food, healthy habitats, and beach quality, contribute $Trillions in economic activity, social, human health and commercial benefit • Accurate weather, water & climate information is a critical driver for decisions • QPF runoff... to maintain soil, water quality and food supply • Coastal winds and climatology... to predict toxic algal blooms, fish stock, and public safety • Air/Water temperature ... to forecast scenarios for pathogen progression and avoid illness • Prediction capability can now be applied to ecosystem components to better provide integrated environmental services for decision support

25. Prototype Projects Currently, NCEP and other NWS offices are linked to NOAA pilot programs Chesapeake Bay Beach/Water Quality Living Resource Distribution Dissolved Oxygen Predictions Harmful Algal Bloom Disease Pathogen Progression Gulf Coast Gulf of Maine Great Lakes California Current Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ... Vibrio... Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic Barnacles, Muscles Algal Blooms and Dead Zones