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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) April 4th, 2014 Seminar

Population , Households, Migration and Jobs in the Districts, City and Neighbourhoods of Greater Christchurch A synthesis of results from the 2013 Census. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) April 4th, 2014 Seminar. Scope.

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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) April 4th, 2014 Seminar

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  1. Population, Households, Migration and Jobs in the Districts, City and Neighbourhoods of Greater Christchurch Asynthesis of results from the 2013 Census James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) April 4th, 2014 Seminar

  2. Scope • Estimated net migration by age for Greater Christchurch and its TLAs : 1991 to 2013 • An overview of the changes in the wards and 2013 area units of Greater Christchurch • Jobs / households / population land use .. • An evolving online library – socioecometrica.co.nz

  3. Long term historical population growth rates

  4. SNZ Estimated % change in usually resident population – June Yrs – 2007-2013

  5. How do the numbers add up?Interim Draft Population accounts for Greater Christchurch … a first cut2006 to 2013 intercensal periodCompared with 1991 to 2006 intercensal periods..?

  6. Note : “PLT” stands for “permanent long term” (international migration)

  7. Greater Christchurch

  8. Christchurch City

  9. Selwyn District

  10. Waimakariri District

  11. Net Migration by census period • Estimated by aging the beginning period population • Factoring in births • Accounting for deaths • Comparing with end of period population by age • But note usually 5 yrs between census – but 2006-2013 is a seven year gap .. So some issues in comparing with 2001-2006 ….etc.

  12. Net Migration by age and period Greater Christchurch

  13. Estimated net migration rates per annumby age ..

  14. Comparing migration rates by age over 2006-2013 for some Christchurch TLAs..

  15. Comparing 2006-2013 Net Migration rates by age Greater Chch TLAs

  16. Net Migration rate by age and period Christchurch City

  17. Net Migration rate by age and period Waimakariri District

  18. Net Migration rate by age and period Selwyn District

  19. Variation and change in Family Composition within Christchurch TLAs

  20. Working with groups of 2013 & 2006 area units • Most of the legacy data on AU2006 • Join with new statistics on 2013 geography as it comes available • Group the data to AU200613 as a starting point .. For the moment • Release of 2013 Census meshblock database will vastly increase the ease of linking 2013 and earlier data • Refer to the MERA online classification page on the new online MERA ‘socioecometrica’ info library (http://socioecometrica.co.nz/index.php)

  21. Migration – an indicator of population redistribution and key driver of population projections • Key assumption – driver – migration • Last census provides key evidence of recent migration behaviour • Processes are scale and level as well as age and sex… dependent • Different migration processes at different levels – GtrChch, TLA and within TLA • Include residential capacity / demand behaviour assumptions at suburb level .. • Translate population in numbers of households / dwellings • Project future migration assumptions • base on a long term view • accounting for cyclical and one off events (eg. Earthquake effects)

  22. An example of an AU200613 • Main Directory to 2006 / 2013 Area Unit Groups is at the url • http://socioecometrica.co.nz/Index.php • http://socioecometrica.co.nz/InfoLib/NZAU/AU200613A_DirectoryPageV1a.php

  23. AU200613 page .. • Area unit group population summary for the 1981 to 2013 period • Comparison of annual % growth rate for census periods from 1981 to 2013 to the containing • “ward”, “community board”, local authority and regional TLA grouping and NZ • List of 2013 and 2006 area units in each 200613 area unit grouping • Population pyramid showing 2006 and 2013 and % change 2006/2013 for each age group • Age composition by 5 yr age group 1981 to 2013 • Added a graph showing current census population 1981 to 2013, population estimates 2006 – 2013 and population projections (SNZ) 2006 to 2031

  24. Online library – not about data about information • Value added to data • Derivatives • Specialised statistical graphics, maps • Integration of census and other sources .. • Wholistic place based view ..

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