James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA)

1. A Programme Mapping Trends in the Occupational and Educational Qualifications Structure of the NZ Workforce - 1981 to 2001 James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA) On the Frontiers : New Public Research on Population, Migration and Community Dynamics 31 March 2005

2. Outline of Presentation • Background to the Work • Development of Occupational Classifications • Trends in Occupations by NZSEI Gping • Development of Educational Classifications • Selected Statistics on Educational Trends Overall and by Ethnic Group, Age and Gender

3. 1981 – 2001 Occupational and Highest Educational Level Overview Synthesised from • Base on work for • Dept of Labour Future of Work Project on Occupational Workforce Dynamics 1991-2001 • Ministry of Education operational research project on statistics on Accumulation of Educational Qualifications 1981 – 2001 • FORST project on multiple job holding • Independent inhouse systems development • As the latest phase in systems development programme going back over a decade and more • All statistical series built anew from scratch by reprocessing of census unit record data – iterative and repeatable systems development and programming effort – progressively refined • Massive spade work on metadata, classifications, concordances, validation of results

4. Development of Coherent 1981 – 2001 Classification FrameworkOccupations • Harmonised Occupational Classifications • 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 - NZ Standard Classification of Occupation 1968 (NZSCO68) variants • 1991 – 2001 NZ Standard Classification of Occupation 1990, 1995 and 1999 (NZSCO90, NZSCO95, NZSCO99) • Developed highly coherent 1991 – 2001 “Occ199099” classifications at 3, 4 and 5 digit level • Developed “interim” best fit NZSCO68 to “Occ199099” at 3 and 4 digit levels

5. 3 digit level fit of NZSCO68 to Occ9099 Classification • Really have two closely concordance series • 1981-1996 on NZSCO68 • 1991-2001 on NZSCO90/NZSCO95/NZSCO99 • Note that have also developed parallel concordance of Industries at NZSIC87 / ANZSIC93 5 digit level • Fit of 3 digit level NZSCO68 / Occ9099 • 88-92% of 1991 jobs • “Fits” 80 of 95 occupational groups • Potential for further improving NZSCO68 to Occ199099 jobs allocation by some indirect methods (greater than 95%?) • NZSCO68 is included in 1991 and 1996 census for “overlapping” classifications

6. Examples of Good Fit of NZSCO68 to NZSCO90 Classification for 1991

7. Examples of Poor Fit of NZSCO68 to NZSCO90 Classification for 1991

8. 1981 to 2001 Trends in 3 digit level Occupations • Which occupations have grown most over each of the 1981-86 … 1996-2001 periods • Group the occupations using the NZ Standard Classification of Socio-economic Status (Stats NZ 1996, based on 1991 census) (NZSEI) • E.g. NZSEI “Level 1” Gps 2 (low SEI) to 8 (high SEI) • When do we see growth in the high income high skill knowledge based economy?

9. NZ Socioeconomic Index of Occupational Status (NZSEI) and Estimated Hourly Income

10. Intercensal Growth in Jobs by NZSEI Groupings of Occupations 1981 - 2001

11. Growth in Job Numbers by NZSEI Gpings of Occupations 1981-2001

12. Key Features of Occupational Change by NZSEI Gpings 1981 - 2001 • 1981 – 1986 : Highest growth High SEI and slightly lower growth lowest SEI • 1986 – 1991 : High growth in High SEI and big decrease in low SEI • 1991 – 1996 : Across the board high growth in all SEI • 1996 – 2001 : High growth in Medium - High SEI and drop in lowest SEI

13. Development of 1981 – 2001 Classification of Highest Educ Levels and NZSCED Field of Study • 1981 • Recoding of four educational qualification fields (more than 1,000 qual codes) into a comparable 2001 Highest Occupational Level and NZSCED Field of Study • 1986 and 1991 • Recoding of a Educational Qualification Type coding (semi-hierarchical mainly educational qualification level coding) into a Highest Educational Level Coding • 1996 and 2001 • Grouping of highest educational qualification level codes and field of study codes into NZSCED Field of Study

14. Results of Educational Qual Concardances • 1981, 1996, 2001 Series by Highest Qual Level and NZSCED Level 3 Field of Study • 1981 – 2001 Series by Highest Educational Qualification Level • Problems with “no quals”, “school level quals”, some types of post sec quals for some years • 1981, 1996 and 2001 coherent high detail for post sec quals

15. Number with Matriculation or Post-Secondary Educational Qualification - 1981 to 2001

16. Number with School Level Educational Qualification or less only - 1981 to 2001

17. Highest Educational Qualification Level (%) 1981 to 2001

18. Comparison of Post School Qual Levels 1981, 1996, 2001

19. Percent of Population with a Degree by Ethnic Group

20. Percent of Population with at Non-Degree Post-Secondary Qual Level by Ethnic Group

21. Percent with a degree qualification by age and ethnic group : 1996 and 2001

22. Intercensal change in the % with a degree qualification by age cohort and sex: 1981 - 2001

23. % at non-degree post-secondary qualification level by ethnic group and gender: 1981 - 2001

24. % with a degree qualification by ethnic group and gender: 1981 - 2001

25. Estimated % of degree qualns gained overseas by Field of Study Lvl 2 1981, 1996 and 2001