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The Evolution of Mobile Networks and its Implications

The Evolution of Mobile Networks and its Implications. Tao Zhang, Ph.D. Chief Scientist and Director Wireless and Vehicle Networks Office Phone: +1 732-699-2459 Mobile Phone: +1 201 707 5333 Email: tao@research.telcordia.com May 4, 2010. Outline. The mobile evolution and its implications

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The Evolution of Mobile Networks and its Implications

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  1. The Evolution of Mobile Networksand its Implications Tao Zhang, Ph.D. Chief Scientist and Director Wireless and Vehicle Networks Office Phone: +1 732-699-2459 Mobile Phone: +1 201 707 5333 Email: tao@research.telcordia.com May 4, 2010

  2. Outline • The mobile evolution and its implications • The emerging 4G and its implications • What Is Next? TELCORDIA PROPRIETARY

  3. U.A.E Bahrain Italy Estonia Lithuania U.K. Russia Bulgaria Lux. Qatar Ukraine Switz. Indonesia Norway Viet Nam Australia. Gambia New Zealand U.S. Niger Korea Canada Burundi Japan Taiwan Eq. Guinea China India Papua New Guinea Global Trends of Mobile Subscribers Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  4. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1995 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  5. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1996 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  6. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1997 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  7. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1998 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  8. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1999 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  9. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2000 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  10. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2001 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  11. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2002 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  12. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2003 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  13. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2004 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  14. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2005 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  15. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2006 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  16. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2007 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  17. Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  18. U.A.E Bahrain Italy Estonia Lithuania U.K. Russia Bulgaria Lux. Qatar Ukraine Switz. Indonesia Norway Viet Nam Australia. Gambia New Zealand U.S. Niger Korea Canada Burundi Japan Taiwan Eq. Guinea China India Papua New Guinea Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population again Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  19. US Wireless Subscribers

  20. Cellular Sites in the US: 1985-2009 Source: CTIA

  21. US Mobile Cell Site Buildouts: 1982 to 2010 1982 2010 Animate

  22. Wireless Technology Evolution

  23. LTE – A Game Changer Downlink Peak Data Rate (Mbps)

  24. LTE – A Game Changer Source 3G Americas TELCORDIA PROPRIETARY

  25. A Closer Look at LTE EPC IP applications/ networks PDN Gateway Serving Gateway MME eNodeB 25 Physical Layer: MIMO Media Access: OFDM Network Architecture: All IP end-to-end

  26. LTE Deployment Has Begun Globally 26 • Sweden: TeliaSonera, Tele2, and Telenor • TeliaSonera deployed the world’s first commercial LTE network in 12/2009, showing 43Mbps downlink rate, 5.3Mbps uplink rate, and 40ms delays, aiming to cover 60% of population E by 2011 • A Tele2 Sweden and Telenor joint venture, Net4Mobility, plans to start commercial services in 2010, aiming to cover 99% of population by 2013 • USA: Verizon Wireless, AT&T, MetroPCS, U.S. Cellular • Verizon plans to launch commercial LTE services in up to 30 markets in 2010 covering 100 million people. Trials in multiple cities have been conducted since 2009 showing peak and average download rates of 40-50 Mbps and 5-12 Mbps, and peak and average upload rates of 20-50 Mbps and 2-5 Mbps • AT&T plans to launch services in 2011

  27. LTE Deployment Has Begun Globally 27 • China: China Mobile • China Mobile began LTE service in April 2010 for the 2010 Shanghai World Expo • More LTE trials in other cities to start in 2H 2010, and more commercial services to begin in 2011 • Japan: NTT-DoCoMo, and KDDI • NTT DoCoMo plans to launch LTE services by the end of 2010 • KDDI plans to begin LTE trails in mid-2010 for commercial services by December 2012

  28. Products Available from all Leading Equipment Manufacturers 28 • Ericsson: • Supplying Verizon Wireless, AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, TeliaSonera • Alcatel-Lucent • Supplying Verizon Wireless, AT&T, China Mobile • Huawei: • Supplying China Mobile, TeliaSonera, Tele2, and Telenor • Motorola: • Supplying KDDI • NEC: • Supplying KDDI • ……

  29. Consumer Adoption Curves in the US

  30. Things to Expect by 2015 • Near nationwide deployment of 4G in the US covering all major metro areas • Critical mass of consumer electronics with embedded 4G capabilities • Multiple interoperable wireless technologies o-exist: 4G, 3G, … • “Mobile Internet” prevails, focusing on an “Everyone Creates and Everyone Benefits” application world like what has been happening over the Internet and the App Stores

  31. What Will 5G World Look Like? Mobility Video On Demand, Movies Video on-the- spot Alerts Mobile Voice & Texting 3D Data Rate Wireline Voice 5G Services Immediacy and anticipation

  32. Thanks! TELCORDIA PROPRIETARY - INTERNAL USE ONLY See proprietary restrictions on title page.

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