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The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections. The Public’s Interest. Average # of Viewers (Millions). 2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4. O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7. Rachel Maddow 0.4.

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The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

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  1. The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

  2. The Public’s Interest Average # of Viewers (Millions) 2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4 O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7 Rachel Maddow 0.4 American Idol 29.3 Dancing with the Stars 18.4 2 Broke Girls 19.2 Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/business/media/republican-debates-are-a-hot-ticket-on-tv.html?pagewanted=all,

  3. The Republican Nomination Contest Iowa Caucus 6.5 % New Hampshire Primary 31.1 South Carolina Primary 17.6 Florida Primary 12.8 Nevada Caucus 1.9 Minnesota Caucus* 1.2 Colorado Caucus 1.8 Missouri Primary 7.4 Maine Caucus* .5

  4. Normal People Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent (Busy)  Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological

  5. Political Overreach • Lyndon Johnson 1964-1966-1968 • Jimmy Carter 1976-1980 • Bill Clinton 1992-94 • Newt Gingrich 1994-96 • George W. Bush 2004-2006-2008 • Barack Obama 2008-2010-?

  6. George W. Bush “I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004) “On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)

  7. “… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”Barack Obama, June 4, 2008

  8. Ray Fair Model VOTE:Republican share of two-party presidential vote in election V O T E GOODNEWS GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C + .B*GROWTH - .B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS

  9. Obama as Divider Average R approval Average D approval Gap Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70% Obama Year 3 12 percent 84 percent 72% Democrats will vote Obama Republicans will vote Romney Independents will decide who wins presidency

  10. Party Identification

  11. Gallup Most Important Problem(June 2012) Economy (General) 31 % Unemployment 25 Government 12 Federal Budget Deficit 11 Healthcare 6 Lack of money 5 Ethical / Moral decline 4 Education 4

  12. Is economy getting better

  13. How is the economy:depends on who you ask

  14. October 1,2012

  15. "Mitt Romney was seen as better able to handle the economy, taxes, and the budget deficit among the debate audience, but it seems that issues were trumped, or at least blunted, by intangibles, including the expectations game," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

  16. April 15

  17. Pre –post debate shift

  18. Strategy & the 2008 Electoral College AK-3 2008: Obama 365, McCain 173 NH-4 WA-11 ME-4 VT-3 MA-12 ND-3 MT-3 MN-10 RI-4 OR-7 WI -11 NY-33 ID-4 SD-3 MI-18 WY-3 CT-8 PA-23 NJ-15 IA-7 OH-21 NE-5 DE-3 IN-12 IL-22 NV-4 WV-5 UT-5 VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 CO-8 CA-54 KS-6 MO-11 NC-14 DC-3 TN-11 OK-8 SC-8 AR-6 AZ-8 NM-5 GA-13 AL-9 MS-7 LA-9 TX-32 HI-4 Obama McCain FL-25

  19. Changed Electorate 08-2012 Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008 White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3% Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08 While white working class is DOWN 5% Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class DOWN 7%

  20. Strategy & the 2012 Electoral College The battleground states for 2012 -4 ND-3 MT MN-10 NH- 8 OR-7 NY-31 WI 4 ID-4 WY-3 PA IA 3 8 OH NE-5 6 IN 7 IL-21 NV 3 -2 UT-5 WV-5 VA 2 CO CA-55 KS-6 MO-11 -2 NC -5 TN-11 6 5 OK-7 SC-8 AR-6 AZ -4 NM GA-15 AL-9 MS-6 LA-9 TX-34 -- FL

  21. Congressional Elections

  22. The end

  23. The end

  24. Betting pools House

  25. Betting pools Senate

  26. The End Thank You

  27. Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012 AK-3 NH-4 Wash 11 ME-4 VT-3 MA-12 ND-3 MT-3 MN-10 RI-4 OR-7 WI -10 NY-31 ID-4 SD-3 MI-17 WY-3 CT-7 PA-20 NJ-15 IA-6 OH-18 NE-5 DE-3 IN-11 IL-21 NV-6 UT-5 WV VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 CO-9 CA-55 KS-6 MO-10 NC-15 DC-3 TN-11 OK-7 SC-8 AR-6 AZ-10 NM-5 GA-15 AL-9 MS-6 LA-9 TX-38 HI-4 FL-29

  28. Electoral College 2008 AK-3 NH-4 Wash 11 ME-4 VT-3 MA-12 ND-3 MT-3 MN-10 RI-4 OR-7 WI -10 NY-31 ID-4 SD-3 MI-17 WY-3 CT-7 PA-21 NJ-15 IA-7 OH-20 NE-5 DE-3 IN-11 IL-21 NV-5 UT-5 WV VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 CO-9 CA-55 KS-6 MO-11 NC-15 DC-3 TN-11 OK-7 SC-8 AR-6 AZ-10 NM-5 GA-15 AL-9 MS-6 LA-9 TX-34 HI-4 FL-27

  29. Romney

  30. I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed • >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries • >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for • >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA • >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently • >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates, • >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries. • >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California? • >> • >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter • >> Mondale contest.

  31. WAR WAR

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