A Brief Introduction to the National Project for Developing Basic Sciences in China (2004-2009)

1. A Brief Introduction to the National Project for Developing Basic Sciences in China (2004-2009) Theories and Methods for Monitoring and predicting Heavy Rainfall in South China Renhe Zhang (张人禾) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) Beijing, 100081

2. 1. Motivation and Scientific Issues

3. The heavy rainfall in South China includes the Meiyu Front heavy rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River vally, pre-monsoon heavyrainfall in South China and typhoon heavy rainfall. The floods caused by the heavy rainfalls are the primary meteorological disasters in China.

4. In resent 10 years, the flood disasters caused almost hundreds to thousands of losses of human life and around 200 billion RMB of economic losses each year.

5. It can be seen,there is great significance to study heavy rainfall for the improving of the monitoring and forecasting capability of heavy rainfall in order for enhancing national ability to mitigate and prevent natural disasters and insuring sustainable development of society and economy in China.

6. AREM_3Dvar HLAFS0.25 T213 AREM_3Dvar Forecast 25.0mm/24Hr rainfall TS However, the forecast ability for heavy rainfall has not yet been improved greatly.

7. For the heavy rainfall with the precipitation of 465mmin Wuhan on Jul 21-23,1998, TRMM data display the heavy rainfall process were associated with cloud clusters of the spatial scale of tens to hundreds kilometer (meso- scale). This study meso-β scale system Meiyu Front and Meso-scale Convection Cloud Tower Former study: meso-αscale system

8. Strong convective cloud cluster made a surprise attack on Shanghai at 17:30-19:30 Jul 12 2004 causing gale(29m/s) and heavy rain disaster.

9. It is shown by satellite data that during this period convective systems with the spatial scale of tens kilometer successively attacked Shanghai .

10. Satellite data shows that during this period convective systems with the spatial scale of tens kilometer successively attacked Shanghai . 17:25

11. Rananim in 2004: the strongest Typhoon landing China in the past 50 years The maximum precipitation is 916 mm. And caused geologic disasters such as stream of mud-stone and mountain slippage . It caused tragic losses in Zhejiang province: 164 death，24 disappearance，1800 hurt, direct economic losses of 18.128 billion yuan。

12. 02:33 Aug 12 2004 (GMT)TERRA／MODIS for Rananim 通道1/6/31 通道31 What is the mechanism for the strong convective cloud clusters of ten to hundred kilometer scale appeared in the Typhoon cloud belt of thousands kilometer scale? What is the relationship between them?

13. The above mentioned examples show clearly that the weather systems causing severe heavy rainfall are strong convective heavy rainfall clusters with the spatial scale of tens to hundreds kilometers. The study of the weather system of Meso- scale has great scientific significance.

14. Scientific Issues Why this kind of convective cloud clusters with 10-102 km spatial scale can be developed so intensively? How to improve forecast of the heavy rainfall triggered by strong convective cloud clusters? What are the cloud physical processes of this kind of heavy rainfall? How to detect the physical parameter associated with the heavy rainfall in this kind of mesoscale cluster? Why there is so powerful energy collecting environmental vapor to a smaller area in a short period and raising to an altitude to form heavy rainfall?

15. To establish the physics for strong convective cloud cluster in South China. Scientific Goals Theory and method that can merge and assimilate data from multi-detecting information to a mesoscale meteorological fields. Non-static high-resolution heavy rainfall numerical forecast model system.

16. 2. Research Scheme

17. Seven themes of the project • structure and formation mechanism of heavy rain cloud cluster in South China Formation Mechanism study • Study on the effect of external forcing and large scale circulation anomaly on heavy rainfall process in South China • Study on the climate background associated with persistent heavy rainfall in South China

18. Seven themes of the project Monitoring Theory Study • Remote sensing theory and method for explorer the heavy rainfall system and its application in data assimilation • In situ experiment on mesoscale heavy rainfall observation system

19. Seven themes of the project Forecast and nowcast Theory Study • The development and establishment for non-static high resolution mesoscale numerical forecast model system • Study on the basis theory for meso scale heavy rain forecast in South China

20. 3. Research Group and Field Experiments

21. Attending institutions • Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences • Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences • National Satellite Meteorological Center • National Meteorological Center • Beijing University • Nanjing University • Nanjing Institute of Meteorology • Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rainfall, CMA About 80 scientists

22. Field Experiment 南方致洪暴雨外场试验示意图

23. Thanks!