WMO’S CONTRIBUTION TO NATURAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION by Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.

1. WMO’S CONTRIBUTION TO NATURAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION by Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation World Meteorological Organization (14 December 2004)

2. Agenda • Background on World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • Structure and Dynamics • WMO’s activities in Disaster Risk Reduction • Examples of projects

3. Global Distribution of Natural Hazards (1993-2002) Near 90 % of natural disasters were caused by Weather-, Climate- and Water-related hazards.

4. Evolution of Natural Disasters and Their impacts (source: CRED)

5. Mitigation Prevention WMO Provides Scientific and Technical Knowledge Base Critical to all Stages of Disaster Reduction • Observing • Detecting and Monitoring • Forecast and early warnings (next hour to longer timescales) • Vulnerability analysis and risk assessment • Applications (agriculture, water resources, health, etc.) Response Recovery Preparedness

6. Natural Hazards and Their Changing Patterns

7. WMO Global and National Network

8. WMO Network of Global and Specialized Regional Centres

9. WMO Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (DPM) Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003) initiated WMO major programme on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a crosscutting programme to enhance international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities

10. WMO - Strategic Goals in Natural Disaster Reduction • Goal 1: Promote Greater emphasis on prevention and preparedness • Goal 2: Optimal integration of WMO core capabilities, particularly relevant to risk assessment and early warnings, for enhanced disaster risk reduction, via user-driven approach • Goal 3: Strengthen the role of NMHSs as a critical component of national disaster reduction platforms, particularly in the developing countries • Goal 4: Demonstrate benefits of early warning systems ($1/$7) • Goal 5: Strengthen Partnerships with disaster risk reduction community at all levels

11. Examples of WMO Activities

12. WMO Space Programme Unparalleled international cooperation has been achieved in satellite activities*

13. EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACTIVITIES (ERA) • Assist NMHSs to provide Meteorological Support for Emergency Response (detecting, monitoring, on-site forecasting, outlooks) for: • Natural and man-made emergencies: • Nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies • Volcanic ash and gases as public and aviation hazards • Wild-land, forest fires • Accidental release of chemicals • Air-borne diseases • General meteorological support to emergency operations • Specialized products and services: • Atmospheric dispersion modeling, sub-regional coverage, expert advise • Continued enhancement, through scientific and technological improvements

14. Enhancing Response to Forest Fires In context of Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) programme, a variety of projects are underway, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) provide: • Forecasting and monitoring • Hot spot identification using satellite imageries, • Smoke trajectory and dispersion modelling, • Compiling monthly and seasonal climate prediction information • Activities related to air quality monitoring • Dissemination of information to environmental and other agencies Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) • Provide regional analyses and forecasts, such as smoke trajectory forecasts, to assist in environmental emergency situations • Examples: ASMC Singapore, RSMC Melbourne WMO/ ESCAP Project • “Support to the Implementation of the Regional Haze Action Plan of ASEAN Member Countries”, funding from Australia,

15. Extending Predictions • Development of predictions and alerts with improved accuracy at longer lead-times (week two to seasonal) • THORPEX and COPES (demonstration projects) • Examples: • El Niño Update • Regional Climate Outlook Forums – e.g., Drought Monitoring and Alerts • National Climate Watches • National Heat/Health Warning Systems

16. Community Approach to Flood Management • Enhance community preparedness in several countries with the active participation of local communities concerned • Pilot project in Bangladesh, India and Nepal • Detailed information on the activities and outputs of this Pilot Project on www.apfm.info.

17. Satellite-based Dissemination:Emergency Managers Info. Network over Americas and Pacific EMWIN provides rapid dissemination of Warnings, Forecasts, Graphics and Imagery (storms, cyclones…)

18. Global Communication of Forecasts and Warnings • World Weather Information Service (WWIS) Website, http://www.worldweather.org • The Severe Weather Information Centre (SWIC) Website, a centralized source of official tropical cyclone warnings: http://severe.worldweather.org • More to come

19. Summary and Conclusions • WMO develops extensive knowledge base relevant to all stages of disaster risk reduction • WMO’s goal is to strengthen partnerships with disaster risk reduction community to enhance disaster risk reduction capabilities at international, regional and national levels. • GDAS is an excellent opportunity to work together to address this goal For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. WMO Chief of Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Email. mgolnaraghi@WMO.int

20. WMO’s Programmes in Weather, Climate and Water • World Weather Watch Programme (WWW) • Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP), • Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP) • World Climate Programme (WCP), • Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWR) • Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (DPM), • Space Programme, • Education and Training Programme (ETP), • Regional Programme, • Technical Cooperation Programme. • Co-Sponsored Programmes (WCRP, GCOS, IPCC)